Opinion Poll by XXI. Század Intézet, 12–14 January 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0.0% | 45.0% | 43.0–47.0% | 42.4–47.6% | 41.9–48.1% | 41.0–49.1% |
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0–42.0% | 37.5–42.6% | 37.0–43.1% | 36.1–44.0% |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 63% | 97% | Median |
| 11 | 34% | 34% | Majority |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 75% | 92% | Median |
| 10 | 18% | 18% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 10 | 34% | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 63% | 97% | Median |
| 11 | 34% | 34% | Majority |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: XXI. Század Intézet
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 January 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.44%