Opinion Poll by Medián for HVG, 22–24 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 67.8% 65.9–69.7% 65.3–70.2% 64.8–70.6% 63.9–71.5%
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 22.9% 21.3–24.7% 20.8–25.2% 20.4–25.6% 19.6–26.5%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 15 15–16 15–16 14–16 14–16
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100% Majority
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 3% 100%  
15 83% 97% Median
16 15% 15%  
17 0% 0%  

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 16% 100%  
5 83% 84% Median
6 1.3% 1.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 99.7% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 1–2

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 16% 100%  
5 83% 84% Median
6 1.3% 1.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 99.7% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations