Poll Average

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Summary

The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 90 days old) registered and analyzed so far.

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) M5S PaP SI UP EV AVS PD LeU A1 CP +E A IV +E–Az A–IV PLD SUE NM FI SVP FdI NcI C! CI LN CPI DSP FN IC IpF ISP I Italexit PP Lib ScN
9 June 2024 General Election 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0
N/A Poll Average 10–14%
8–12		 0–1%
0		 2–4%
1–3		 N/A
N/A		 3–5%
2–5		 N/A
N/A		 20–25%
16–22		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 2–5%
0–4		 1–3%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 0–3%
0		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 7–11%
5–8		 N/A
N/A		 26–33%
21–28		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 5–9%
4–8		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 2–5%
0–4		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0–1		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A
17–18 February 2026 Quorum – YouTrend
Sky TG24		 10–14%
8–12		 N/A
N/A		 2–4%
2–4		 N/A
N/A		 3–6%
3–5		 N/A
N/A		 19–24%
16–21		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–3%
0		 3–6%
0–5		 1–3%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 7–11%
5–8		 N/A
N/A		 26–32%
22–26		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 5–8%
4–7		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 3–6%
0–5		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0–1		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A
17–18 February 2026 Eumetra 10–14%
8–12		 N/A
N/A		 2–4%
1–3		 N/A
N/A		 3–5%
2–5		 N/A
N/A		 19–25%
16–22		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 2–5%
0–4		 1–4%
0–3		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 7–11%
5–8		 N/A
N/A		 27–33%
22–29		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 5–9%
4–8		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 2–5%
0–4		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0–1		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A
11–16 February 2026 SWG
La7		 10–14%
9–12		 N/A
N/A		 2–3%
1–3		 N/A
N/A		 3–5%
3–5		 N/A
N/A		 20–24%
17–21		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 2–5%
0–4		 2–3%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 7–10%
5–8		 N/A
N/A		 27–32%
23–28		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 5–8%
4–7		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 3–5%
0–4		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0–1		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A
11–14 February 2026 BiDiMedia 11–14%
10–11		 0–1%
0		 2–3%
2–3		 N/A
N/A		 3–5%
3–4		 N/A
N/A		 21–24%
18–20		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 2–4%
0		 2–3%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0		 7–9%
6–7		 N/A
N/A		 27–31%
26		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 6–8%
6		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0		 2–3%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A
10–12 February 2026 Termometro Politico 11–13%
9–12		 N/A
N/A		 2–3%
2–3		 N/A
N/A		 3–4%
3–5		 N/A
N/A		 20–24%
18–20		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 2–4%
0		 2–3%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1%
0		 7–9%
6–7		 N/A
N/A		 28–31%
24–27		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 7–9%
6–7		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 3–4%
0–4		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A
11–12 February 2026 Tecnè
Agenzia Dire		 10–14%
9–12		 N/A
N/A		 1–3%
1–3		 N/A
N/A		 2–5%
2–4		 N/A
N/A		 20–25%
16–21		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 2–4%
0–4		 1–3%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 9–12%
6–9		 N/A
N/A		 28–34%
23–28		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 6–9%
5–8		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–3%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0–1		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A
9–10 February 2026 EMG 10–14%
9–12		 N/A
N/A		 1–3%
1–3		 N/A
N/A		 2–5%
2–5		 N/A
N/A		 20–25%
18–22		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–3%
0		 2–4%
0		 2–4%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–3%
0		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 7–11%
6–8		 N/A
N/A		 24–30%
21–26		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 6–9%
6–8		 N/A
N/A		 1–3%
0		 2–4%
0–4		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0–1		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A
26–29 January 2026 Ipsos
Corriere della Sera		 11–16%
9–13		 N/A
N/A		 1–3%
1–3		 N/A
N/A		 2–5%
2–5		 N/A
N/A		 19–24%
16–19		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 2–3%
0		 2–3%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 7–11%
5–8		 N/A
N/A		 27–32%
22–26		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 6–10%
5–8		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0–1		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A
20–27 January 2026 Ixè 10–14%
9–12		 N/A
N/A		 2–4%
1–3		 N/A
N/A		 3–5%
3–5		 N/A
N/A		 20–25%
17–22		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–3%
0		 2–5%
0–4		 2–3%
0		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 1–2%
0		 7–10%
5–7		 N/A
N/A		 26–32%
22–28		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 6–10%
5–8		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A		 0–1%
0–1		 N/A
N/A		 N/A
N/A
9 June 2024 General Election 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0		 0.0%
0

Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.

Legend:

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.2% 10.9–13.6% 10.5–14.1% 10.2–14.5% 9.5–15.4%
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.3–4.0%
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.1% 2.3–5.6%
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 22.1% 20.5–23.8% 20.0–24.3% 19.6–24.7% 18.7–25.6%
Liberi e Uguali (S&D) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Articolo Uno (S&D) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Civica Popolare (RE) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Più Europa (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.9%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.6% 2.0–5.0% 1.6–5.7%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.3% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Più Europa–Azione (RE) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 0.5–2.2% 0.4–2.5% 0.4–2.7% 0.3–3.0%
Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.4–2.4%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 8.6% 7.5–10.3% 7.3–10.8% 7.0–11.3% 6.6–12.1%
Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 29.3% 27.1–31.4% 26.4–32.0% 25.8–32.6% 24.6–33.7%
Noi con l’Italia (ECR) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cambiamo! (ECR) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Coraggio Italia (ECR) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 7.3% 6.0–8.6% 5.6–9.0% 5.3–9.3% 4.8–10.0%
CasaPound Italia (NI) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% 1.2% 0.7–1.9% 0.6–2.1% 0.6–2.3% 0.5–2.7%
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0.0% 3.2% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.8% 1.7–5.1% 1.3–5.8%
Impegno Civico (NI) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Insieme per il Futuro (NI) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Insieme (*) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%
Libertà (*) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 2% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 85% 98% Median
1.5–2.5% 13% 13%  
2.5–3.5% 0.2% 0.2%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 5% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 64% 95% Median
2.5–3.5% 30% 31%  
3.5–4.5% 1.1% 1.1%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 0%  

Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 50% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 47% 49% Median
2.5–3.5% 2% 2%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 0%  

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 100%  
8.5–9.5% 0% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 0% 100%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 100%  
12.5–13.5% 0% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 0% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 0% 100%  
15.5–16.5% 0% 100%  
16.5–17.5% 0% 100%  
17.5–18.5% 0% 100%  
18.5–19.5% 0% 100%  
19.5–20.5% 0% 100%  
20.5–21.5% 0% 100%  
21.5–22.5% 0% 100%  
22.5–23.5% 0.1% 100%  
23.5–24.5% 0.4% 99.9%  
24.5–25.5% 1.5% 99.6%  
25.5–26.5% 4% 98%  
26.5–27.5% 9% 94%  
27.5–28.5% 17% 85%  
28.5–29.5% 25% 68% Median
29.5–30.5% 22% 44%  
30.5–31.5% 13% 21%  
31.5–32.5% 6% 8%  
32.5–33.5% 2% 3%  
33.5–34.5% 0.5% 0.6%  
34.5–35.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
35.5–36.5% 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 2% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 23% 98%  
2.5–3.5% 40% 76% Median
3.5–4.5% 28% 35%  
4.5–5.5% 6% 7%  
5.5–6.5% 0.9% 1.0%  
6.5–7.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 0%  

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 33% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 66% 67% Median
1.5–2.5% 0.5% 0.5%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 100%  
8.5–9.5% 0% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 0% 100%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 100%  
12.5–13.5% 0% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 0% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 0% 100%  
15.5–16.5% 0% 100%  
16.5–17.5% 0% 100%  
17.5–18.5% 0.3% 100%  
18.5–19.5% 2% 99.7%  
19.5–20.5% 8% 98%  
20.5–21.5% 22% 90%  
21.5–22.5% 32% 68% Median
22.5–23.5% 23% 36%  
23.5–24.5% 10% 13%  
24.5–25.5% 3% 3%  
25.5–26.5% 0.5% 0.6%  
26.5–27.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
27.5–28.5% 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 100%  
8.5–9.5% 0.5% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 5% 99.4%  
10.5–11.5% 21% 94%  
11.5–12.5% 37% 73% Median
12.5–13.5% 25% 36%  
13.5–14.5% 8% 11%  
14.5–15.5% 2% 2%  
15.5–16.5% 0.3% 0.3%  
16.5–17.5% 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0.5% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 10% 99.5%  
7.5–8.5% 36% 90%  
8.5–9.5% 32% 54% Median
9.5–10.5% 15% 23%  
10.5–11.5% 6% 7%  
11.5–12.5% 1.3% 2%  
12.5–13.5% 0.2% 0.2%  
13.5–14.5% 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0.3% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 16% 99.7%  
2.5–3.5% 56% 84% Median
3.5–4.5% 22% 28%  
4.5–5.5% 5% 6%  
5.5–6.5% 0.7% 0.8%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 0%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 2% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 57% 98% Median
2.5–3.5% 38% 41%  
3.5–4.5% 2% 2%  
4.5–5.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0.2% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 4% 99.8%  
5.5–6.5% 21% 96%  
6.5–7.5% 35% 75% Median
7.5–8.5% 29% 40%  
8.5–9.5% 9% 11%  
9.5–10.5% 1.3% 1.4%  
10.5–11.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 2% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 39% 98%  
3.5–4.5% 50% 59% Median
4.5–5.5% 9% 9%  
5.5–6.5% 0.5% 0.6%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 0%  

Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 15% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 46% 85% Median
1.5–2.5% 35% 39%  
2.5–3.5% 4% 4%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 0%  

Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 2% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 76% 98% Median
1.5–2.5% 21% 22%  
2.5–3.5% 1.0% 1.0%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 0%  

Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 14% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 86% 86% Median
1.5–2.5% 0% 0%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 11 9–11 9–12 8–12 8–13
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 3–4 3–5 2–5 2–5
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 17–21 17–22 16–22 15–22
Liberi e Uguali (S&D) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Articolo Uno (S&D) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Civica Popolare (RE) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Più Europa (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Più Europa–Azione (RE) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Azione–Italia Viva (RE) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 25 23–27 22–28 21–28 21–29
Noi con l’Italia (ECR) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Cambiamo! (ECR) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Coraggio Italia (ECR) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 4–8
CasaPound Italia (NI) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Futuro Nazionale (NI) 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–5
Impegno Civico (NI) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Insieme per il Futuro (NI) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Insieme (*) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Libertà (*) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 3% 100%  
9 13% 97%  
10 32% 84%  
11 42% 52% Median
12 9% 10%  
13 0.9% 1.0%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 54% 92% Median
3 37% 38%  
4 1.2% 1.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.

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Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 49% 97% Median
4 41% 48%  
5 7% 7%  
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.

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Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 3% 99.5%  
17 13% 97%  
18 19% 84%  
19 31% 65% Median
20 21% 34%  
21 6% 13%  
22 6% 7%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Liberi e Uguali (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberi e Uguali (S&D) page.

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Articolo Uno (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Articolo Uno (S&D) page.

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Civica Popolare (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Civica Popolare (RE) page.

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Più Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0% 15%  
3 5% 15%  
4 10% 11%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0.6% 0.7%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Più Europa–Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa–Azione (RE) page.

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Azione–Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE) page.

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Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 9% 99.6%  
6 37% 91%  
7 33% 54% Median
8 19% 21%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP) page.

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Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 4% 99.9%  
22 3% 96%  
23 11% 92%  
24 15% 81%  
25 21% 66% Median
26 26% 45%  
27 14% 19%  
28 5% 6%  
29 0.9% 1.2%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Noi con l’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi con l’Italia (ECR) page.

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Cambiamo! (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Cambiamo! (ECR) page.

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Coraggio Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coraggio Italia (ECR) page.

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Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 3% 99.9%  
5 18% 97%  
6 45% 79% Median
7 30% 34%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

CasaPound Italia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CasaPound Italia (NI) page.

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Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Futuro Nazionale (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 1.4% 11%  
4 9% 10%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Impegno Civico (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.

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Insieme per il Futuro (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Insieme per il Futuro (NI) page.

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Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.

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Insieme (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Insieme (*) page.

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Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.

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Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Libertà (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Libertà (*) page.

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Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Cambiamo! (ECR) – Coraggio Italia (ECR) – Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) – Noi con l’Italia (ECR) 0 25 0% 23–27 22–28 21–28 21–29
Articolo Uno (S&D) – Liberi e Uguali (S&D) – Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 19 0% 17–21 17–22 16–22 15–22
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) – Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) – Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) – Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 13 0% 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–15
Forza Italia (EPP) – Noi Moderati (EPP) – Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP) 0 8 0% 7–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 4–8 4–8
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) – Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–5 2–5 2–5
Azione (RE) – Azione–Italia Viva (RE) – Civica Popolare (RE) – Italia Viva (RE) – Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) – Più Europa (RE) – Più Europa–Azione (RE) – Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE) 0 0 0% 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
CasaPound Italia (NI) – Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) – Futuro Nazionale (NI) – Impegno Civico (NI) – Insieme per il Futuro (NI) – Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Insieme () – Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone () – Libertà () – Partito Progressista () – Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Cambiamo! (ECR) – Coraggio Italia (ECR) – Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) – Noi con l’Italia (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 4% 99.9%  
22 3% 96%  
23 11% 92%  
24 15% 81%  
25 21% 66% Median
26 26% 45%  
27 14% 19%  
28 5% 6%  
29 0.9% 1.2%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Articolo Uno (S&D) – Liberi e Uguali (S&D) – Partito Democratico (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 3% 99.5%  
17 13% 97%  
18 19% 84%  
19 31% 65% Median
20 21% 34%  
21 6% 13%  
22 6% 7%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) – Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) – Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) – Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 4% 99.9%  
11 8% 96%  
12 24% 88%  
13 41% 64% Median
14 20% 23%  
15 3% 3%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP) – Noi Moderati (EPP) – Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 9% 99.6%  
7 37% 91% Median
8 33% 54%  
9 19% 21%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 3% 99.9%  
5 18% 97%  
6 45% 79% Median
7 30% 34%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) – Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 49% 97% Median
4 41% 48%  
5 7% 7%  
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE) – Azione–Italia Viva (RE) – Civica Popolare (RE) – Italia Viva (RE) – Partito Liberaldemocratico (RE) – Più Europa (RE) – Più Europa–Azione (RE) – Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 5% 16%  
4 10% 11%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

CasaPound Italia (NI) – Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) – Futuro Nazionale (NI) – Impegno Civico (NI) – Insieme per il Futuro (NI) – Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 1.1% 9%  
4 7% 8%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Insieme () – Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone () – Libertà () – Partito Progressista () – Sud chiama Nord (*)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information