Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 21 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | PD | M5S | FI | LN | FdI | SVP | CPI | CP | I | NcI | +E | LeU | PaP | A | EV | C! | IV | CI | A1 | SI | +E–Az | Italexit | IpF | IC | AVS | A–IV | NM | UP | ISP | DSP | PP | SUE | Lib |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 40.8% 31 |
21.2% 17 |
16.8% 13 |
6.2% 5 |
3.7% 0 |
0.5% 1 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 18–23% 14–19 |
14–19% 11–17 |
7–12% 4–9 |
6–10% 5–8 |
24–30% 19–26 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–5% 0–4 |
1–3% 0–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0–1 |
3–7% 0–6 |
1–5% 0–4 |
| 17–18 April 2024 | Demos | 18–23% 14–18 |
14–19% 11–15 |
6–10% 4–7 |
7–10% 5–8 |
25–31% 19–25 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
3–5% 0–4 |
2–3% 0–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0–1 |
3–6% 0–4 |
N/A N/A |
| 13 April 2024 | Tecnè Agenzia Dire |
17–23% 14–19 |
14–19% 11–16 |
8–12% 6–9 |
6–10% 5–9 |
24–31% 20–26 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–5% 0–4 |
1–3% 0–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0–1 |
4–7% 0–6 |
1–3% 0 |
| 8–12 April 2024 | Ixè | 18–22% 14–19 |
14–19% 12–17 |
8–11% 5–9 |
6–10% 5–8 |
24–29% 19–24 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
3–5% 0–4 |
2–3% 0–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0–1 |
3–5% 0–4 |
1–2% 0 |
| 8–9 April 2024 | Demopolis | 19–22% 16–20 |
15–18% 12–15 |
8–10% 6–8 |
7–9% 6–8 |
26–30% 21–26 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
3–5% 0–4 |
2–3% 0–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
4–6% 0–5 |
2–3% 0 |
| 8 April 2024 | Euromedia Rai 1 |
17–23% 14–20 |
15–20% 12–18 |
7–11% 4–8 |
7–11% 6–9 |
24–30% 19–27 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
3–5% 0–4 |
1–3% 0–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–3% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0–1 |
3–6% 0–5 |
3–5% 0–5 |
| 4–5 April 2024 | Quorum – YouTrend Sky TG24 |
17–23% 14–19 |
14–19% 11–16 |
6–10% 4–7 |
6–10% 5–8 |
25–31% 21–27 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–5% 0–4 |
1–3% 0–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–4% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0–1 |
3–6% 0–5 |
1–3% 0 |
| 2–4 April 2024 | EMG | 18–23% 14–19 |
15–19% 12–16 |
8–12% 6–9 |
6–10% 5–8 |
25–30% 19–25 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–4% 0–4 |
1–3% 0–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
1–2% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
0–1% 0 |
5–8% 4–6 |
N/A N/A |
| 26 May 2019 | General Election | 40.8% 31 |
21.2% 17 |
16.8% 13 |
6.2% 5 |
3.7% 0 |
0.5% 1 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- PD: Partito Democratico (S&D)
- M5S: Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
- FI: Forza Italia (EPP)
- LN: Lega Nord (ID)
- FdI: Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
- SVP: Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP)
- CPI: CasaPound Italia (NI)
- CP: Civica Popolare (RE)
- I: Insieme (*)
- NcI: Noi con l’Italia (ECR)
- +E: Più Europa (RE)
- LeU: Liberi e Uguali (S&D)
- PaP: Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL)
- A: Azione (RE)
- EV: Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
- C!: Cambiamo! (ECR)
- IV: Italia Viva (RE)
- CI: Coraggio Italia (ECR)
- A1: Articolo Uno (S&D)
- SI: Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
- +E–Az: Più Europa–Azione (RE)
- Italexit: Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
- IpF: Insieme per il Futuro (NI)
- IC: Impegno Civico (NI)
- AVS: Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)
- A–IV: Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
- NM: Noi Moderati (EPP)
- UP: Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)
- ISP: Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)
- DSP: Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)
- PP: Partito Progressista (*)
- SUE: Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE)
- Lib: Libertà (*)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 40.8% | 20.1% | 18.4–21.8% | 18.0–22.3% | 17.5–22.7% | 16.7–23.6% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 21.2% | 16.5% | 15.0–18.3% | 14.6–18.8% | 14.2–19.3% | 13.5–20.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 16.8% | 9.0% | 7.4–10.7% | 7.0–11.2% | 6.7–11.6% | 6.1–12.4% |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.0–9.4% | 6.7–9.8% | 6.4–10.2% | 5.8–10.9% |
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 3.7% | 27.4% | 25.5–29.3% | 24.9–29.9% | 24.4–30.5% | 23.5–31.5% |
| Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP) | 0.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| CasaPound Italia (NI) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Civica Popolare (RE) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Insieme (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Noi con l’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Liberi e Uguali (S&D) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.8–4.5% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.4–5.1% | 2.1–5.6% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.3–3.3% | 1.1–3.7% |
| Cambiamo! (ECR) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Coraggio Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Articolo Uno (S&D) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.4% | 0.6–2.8% |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Insieme per il Futuro (NI) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Impegno Civico (NI) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.9–2.9% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.5% |
| Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.0% | 0.1–1.3% |
| Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 3.7–6.3% | 3.4–6.8% | 3.2–7.2% | 2.9–7.8% |
| Libertà (*) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.2–3.8% | 1.1–4.3% | 1.0–4.7% | 0.8–5.3% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 9% | 97% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 21% | 89% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 30% | 67% | Median |
| 20.5–21.5% | 24% | 37% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 10% | 13% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 38.5–39.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 39.5–40.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 40.5–41.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 16% | 95% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 30% | 79% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 27% | 49% | Median |
| 17.5–18.5% | 15% | 22% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 5% | 7% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 10% | 98% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 24% | 88% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 31% | 64% | Median |
| 9.5–10.5% | 21% | 33% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 9% | 12% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 6.5–7.5% | 21% | 96% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 41% | 75% | Median |
| 8.5–9.5% | 25% | 33% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 7% | 8% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 0% |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 8% | 97% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 17% | 89% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 26% | 72% | Median |
| 27.5–28.5% | 24% | 46% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 14% | 22% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 6% | 8% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 4% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 42% | 96% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 45% | 55% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 9% | 9% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 34% | 93% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 34% | 58% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 17% | 24% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 6% | 7% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 9% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 68% | 91% | Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 22% | 23% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 60% | 99.9% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 39% | 40% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 0% |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 69% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 0.5–1.5% | 31% | 31% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 0% |
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 38% | 99.7% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 49% | 62% | Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 12% | 12% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% |
Libertà (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Libertà (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 24% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 48% | 76% | Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 15% | 28% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 10% | 13% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 31 | 16 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 13–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) | 17 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–17 | 11–17 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 13 | 7 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 4–9 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 |
| Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP) | 1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| CasaPound Italia (NI) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Civica Popolare (RE) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Insieme (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Noi con l’Italia (ECR) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Liberi e Uguali (S&D) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Cambiamo! (ECR) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Coraggio Italia (ECR) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Articolo Uno (S&D) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| Più Europa–Azione (RE) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Insieme per il Futuro (NI) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Impegno Civico (NI) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Azione–Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Libertà (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 20% | 95% | |
| 16 | 27% | 75% | Median |
| 17 | 25% | 48% | |
| 18 | 12% | 23% | |
| 19 | 9% | 11% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 12% | 97% | |
| 13 | 25% | 85% | |
| 14 | 39% | 60% | Median |
| 15 | 14% | 22% | |
| 16 | 5% | 8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 19% | 95% | |
| 6 | 24% | 76% | |
| 7 | 27% | 51% | Median |
| 8 | 20% | 24% | |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lega Nord (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 6 | 33% | 94% | |
| 7 | 41% | 61% | Median |
| 8 | 18% | 20% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 20 | 7% | 97% | |
| 21 | 15% | 90% | |
| 22 | 23% | 75% | |
| 23 | 25% | 52% | Median |
| 24 | 17% | 27% | |
| 25 | 6% | 10% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP) page.
CasaPound Italia (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CasaPound Italia (NI) page.
Civica Popolare (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Civica Popolare (RE) page.
Insieme (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Insieme (*) page.
Noi con l’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi con l’Italia (ECR) page.
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
Liberi e Uguali (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberi e Uguali (S&D) page.
Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) page.
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 66% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 34% | |
| 2 | 0% | 34% | |
| 3 | 13% | 34% | |
| 4 | 21% | 22% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 2 | 28% | 48% | |
| 3 | 20% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Cambiamo! (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Cambiamo! (ECR) page.
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
Coraggio Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coraggio Italia (ECR) page.
Articolo Uno (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Articolo Uno (S&D) page.
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 32% | 50% | |
| 2 | 17% | 18% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa–Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa–Azione (RE) page.
Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone (*) page.
Insieme per il Futuro (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Insieme per il Futuro (NI) page.
Impegno Civico (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Impegno Civico (NI) page.
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) page.
Azione–Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione–Italia Viva (RE) page.
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.
Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) page.
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 77% | |
| 2 | 0% | 77% | |
| 3 | 11% | 77% | |
| 4 | 43% | 67% | Median |
| 5 | 18% | 24% | |
| 6 | 6% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Libertà (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Libertà (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 2% | 7% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) – Cambiamo! (ECR) – Coraggio Italia (ECR) – Noi con l’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 21–25 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 18–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) – Articolo Uno (S&D) – Liberi e Uguali (S&D) | 31 | 16 | 0% | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 13–20 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) – CasaPound Italia (NI) – Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) – Impegno Civico (NI) – Insieme per il Futuro (NI) – Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) | 17 | 14 | 0% | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–17 | 11–17 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) – Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP) – Noi Moderati (EPP) | 14 | 8 | 0% | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| Azione (RE) – Azione–Italia Viva (RE) – Civica Popolare (RE) – Italia Viva (RE) – Più Europa (RE) – Più Europa–Azione (RE) – Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 0–8 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
| Lega Nord (ID) | 5 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Insieme () – Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone () – Libertà () – Partito Progressista () | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–1 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) – Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
| Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) – Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) – Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) – Cambiamo! (ECR) – Coraggio Italia (ECR) – Noi con l’Italia (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 20 | 7% | 97% | |
| 21 | 15% | 90% | |
| 22 | 23% | 75% | |
| 23 | 25% | 52% | Median |
| 24 | 17% | 27% | |
| 25 | 6% | 10% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D) – Articolo Uno (S&D) – Liberi e Uguali (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 20% | 95% | |
| 16 | 27% | 75% | Median |
| 17 | 25% | 48% | |
| 18 | 12% | 23% | |
| 19 | 9% | 11% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Movimento 5 Stelle (NI) – CasaPound Italia (NI) – Democrazia Sovrana e Popolare (NI) – Impegno Civico (NI) – Insieme per il Futuro (NI) – Italia Sovrana e Popolare (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 12% | 97% | |
| 13 | 25% | 85% | |
| 14 | 39% | 60% | Median |
| 15 | 14% | 22% | |
| 16 | 5% | 8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP) – Südtiroler Volkspartei (EPP) – Noi Moderati (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 19% | 95% | |
| 7 | 24% | 76% | Median |
| 8 | 27% | 51% | |
| 9 | 20% | 24% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Azione (RE) – Azione–Italia Viva (RE) – Civica Popolare (RE) – Italia Viva (RE) – Più Europa (RE) – Più Europa–Azione (RE) – Stati Uniti d’Europa (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 87% | |
| 2 | 0% | 87% | |
| 3 | 9% | 87% | |
| 4 | 33% | 78% | Median |
| 5 | 14% | 45% | |
| 6 | 7% | 30% | |
| 7 | 10% | 23% | |
| 8 | 10% | 13% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 6 | 33% | 94% | |
| 7 | 41% | 61% | Median |
| 8 | 18% | 20% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Insieme () – Italexit–Per l’Italia con Paragone () – Libertà () – Partito Progressista ()
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (Greens/EFA) – Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 2 | 28% | 48% | |
| 3 | 20% | 20% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Pace Terra Dignità (GUE/NGL) – Potere al Popolo (GUE/NGL) – Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 32% | 50% | |
| 2 | 17% | 18% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 7
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 14,680,064
- Error estimate: 4.25%