Opinion Poll by TNS Ilres for Luxemburger Wort and RTL, 14–28 November 2022
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei |
28.3% |
23.3% |
22.0–24.6% |
21.7–25.0% |
21.4–25.3% |
20.8–25.9% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei |
17.6% |
20.7% |
19.5–22.0% |
19.2–22.3% |
18.9–22.6% |
18.4–23.2% |
Demokratesch Partei |
16.9% |
18.4% |
17.3–19.6% |
16.9–19.9% |
16.7–20.2% |
16.1–20.8% |
déi gréng |
15.1% |
12.1% |
11.2–13.2% |
10.9–13.4% |
10.7–13.7% |
10.3–14.2% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg |
6.4% |
9.6% |
8.8–10.6% |
8.6–10.8% |
8.4–11.1% |
8.0–11.5% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei |
8.3% |
7.7% |
7.0–8.6% |
6.8–8.8% |
6.6–9.0% |
6.2–9.5% |
déi Lénk |
5.5% |
5.8% |
5.2–6.6% |
5.0–6.8% |
4.8–7.0% |
4.5–7.4% |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg |
1.3% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
24% |
100% |
|
15 |
26% |
76% |
|
16 |
17% |
50% |
Median |
17 |
33% |
33% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
11 |
9% |
99.7% |
|
12 |
32% |
90% |
|
13 |
58% |
59% |
Median |
14 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Demokratesch Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
11 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
12 |
11% |
97% |
Last Result |
13 |
73% |
87% |
Median |
14 |
13% |
14% |
|
15 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
déi gréng
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
6 |
5% |
99.5% |
|
7 |
14% |
94% |
|
8 |
80% |
80% |
Median |
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
8% |
100% |
|
5 |
59% |
92% |
Median |
6 |
15% |
33% |
|
7 |
19% |
19% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
10% |
100% |
|
3 |
17% |
90% |
|
4 |
63% |
72% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
9% |
9% |
|
6 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
déi Lénk
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
95% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
5% |
5% |
|
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – Demokratesch Partei – déi gréng |
31 |
33 |
98% |
32–34 |
32–35 |
31–35 |
30–35 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei |
33 |
28 |
1.2% |
27–30 |
27–30 |
27–30 |
27–31 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei |
31 |
28 |
0.2% |
27–30 |
26–30 |
26–30 |
26–30 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei |
21 |
16 |
0% |
14–17 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
14–17 |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – Demokratesch Partei – déi gréng
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
2% |
100% |
|
31 |
3% |
98% |
Last Result, Majority |
32 |
20% |
95% |
|
33 |
32% |
76% |
|
34 |
36% |
43% |
Median |
35 |
8% |
8% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
19% |
99.5% |
|
28 |
31% |
80% |
|
29 |
23% |
50% |
Median |
30 |
25% |
26% |
|
31 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
Majority |
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
8% |
100% |
|
27 |
24% |
92% |
|
28 |
31% |
68% |
|
29 |
26% |
37% |
Median |
30 |
11% |
11% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result, Majority |
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
24% |
100% |
|
15 |
26% |
76% |
|
16 |
17% |
50% |
Median |
17 |
33% |
33% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS Ilres
- Commissioner(s): Luxemburger Wort and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 14–28 November 2022
Calculations
- Sample size: 1839
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.70%