Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 90 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | CSV | LSAP | DP | DG | ADR | DL | PPLU | KPL | PID |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 October 2018 | General Election | 28.3% 21 |
17.6% 10 |
16.9% 12 |
15.1% 9 |
8.3% 4 |
5.5% 2 |
6.4% 2 |
1.3% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 26–30% 17–22 |
18–22% 10–13 |
16–19% 9–13 |
9–12% 5–8 |
6–8% 2–4 |
4–6% 2 |
8–11% 4–7 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
| 7–16 August 2023 | Ilres Luxemburger Wort and RTL |
26–30% 17–22 |
18–22% 10–13 |
16–19% 9–13 |
9–12% 5–8 |
6–8% 2–4 |
4–6% 2 |
8–11% 4–7 |
0–1% 0 |
N/A N/A |
| 14 October 2018 | General Election | 28.3% 21 |
17.6% 10 |
16.9% 12 |
15.1% 9 |
8.3% 4 |
5.5% 2 |
6.4% 2 |
1.3% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the D’Chamber (95% confidence interval)
- CSV: Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
- LSAP: Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
- DP: Demokratesch Partei
- DG: déi gréng
- ADR: Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei
- DL: déi Lénk
- PPLU: Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg
- KPL: Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg
- PID: Partei fir Integral Demokratie
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 28.3% | 28.3% | 27.0–29.7% | 26.6–30.0% | 26.3–30.4% | 25.7–31.0% |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 17.6% | 19.8% | 18.7–21.0% | 18.4–21.4% | 18.1–21.7% | 17.6–22.3% |
| Demokratesch Partei | 16.9% | 17.4% | 16.3–18.5% | 16.0–18.9% | 15.7–19.2% | 15.2–19.7% |
| déi gréng | 15.1% | 10.7% | 9.8–11.7% | 9.6–11.9% | 9.4–12.2% | 9.0–12.7% |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.2–7.7% | 6.0–7.9% | 5.8–8.1% | 5.5–8.5% |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg | 6.4% | 9.6% | 8.8–10.5% | 8.5–10.8% | 8.3–11.0% | 8.0–11.5% |
| déi Lénk | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.8–6.4% |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–1.0% |
| Partei fir Integral Demokratie | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 19% | 96% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 36% | 77% | Last Result, Median |
| 28.5–29.5% | 29% | 41% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 10% | 12% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 7% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 18.5–19.5% | 30% | 92% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 40% | 62% | Median |
| 20.5–21.5% | 19% | 22% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% |
Demokratesch Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 15% | 98.6% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 40% | 84% | Last Result, Median |
| 17.5–18.5% | 34% | 44% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 9% | 10% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% |
déi gréng
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 35% | 96% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 47% | 60% | Median |
| 11.5–12.5% | 12% | 13% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 26% | 99.4% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 59% | 74% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 14% | 15% | Last Result |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 41% | 95% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 45% | 54% | Median |
| 10.5–11.5% | 9% | 9% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 0% |
déi Lénk
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 17% | 99.9% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 67% | 83% | Last Result, Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 15% | 15% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 71% | 100% | Median |
| 0.5–1.5% | 29% | 29% | Last Result |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 21 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 10 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 |
| Demokratesch Partei | 12 | 13 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| déi gréng | 9 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei | 4 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg | 2 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| déi Lénk | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partei fir Integral Demokratie | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 14% | 100% | |
| 18 | 12% | 86% | |
| 19 | 44% | 74% | Median |
| 20 | 18% | 30% | |
| 21 | 9% | 12% | Last Result |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 11 | 12% | 97% | |
| 12 | 54% | 85% | Median |
| 13 | 31% | 31% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratesch Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 5% | 97% | |
| 11 | 7% | 91% | |
| 12 | 15% | 84% | Last Result |
| 13 | 68% | 69% | Median |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
déi gréng
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 10% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 62% | 89% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 27% | |
| 8 | 13% | 13% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 51% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 49% | |
| 4 | 30% | 31% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 20% | 100% | |
| 5 | 51% | 80% | Median |
| 6 | 8% | 29% | |
| 7 | 21% | 21% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
déi Lénk
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.4% | 99.5% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partei fir Integral Demokratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei fir Integral Demokratie page.
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei | 33 | 32 | 76% | 30–33 | 29–34 | 29–34 | 28–35 |
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 31 | 31 | 69% | 29–33 | 29–34 | 29–34 | 28–35 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – Demokratesch Partei – déi gréng | 31 | 31 | 58% | 29–32 | 29–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 21 | 19 | 0% | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 18% | 94% | |
| 31 | 20% | 76% | Majority |
| 32 | 38% | 56% | Median |
| 33 | 13% | 18% | Last Result |
| 34 | 4% | 5% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 8% | 98% | |
| 30 | 21% | 90% | |
| 31 | 29% | 69% | Last Result, Median, Majority |
| 32 | 23% | 40% | |
| 33 | 10% | 17% | |
| 34 | 6% | 7% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – Demokratesch Partei – déi gréng
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 29 | 6% | 96% | |
| 30 | 32% | 90% | |
| 31 | 25% | 58% | Last Result, Median, Majority |
| 32 | 26% | 33% | |
| 33 | 5% | 7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 14% | 100% | |
| 18 | 12% | 86% | |
| 19 | 44% | 74% | Median |
| 20 | 18% | 30% | |
| 21 | 9% | 12% | Last Result |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 1
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 1,048,576
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.49%