Opinion Poll by TNS Ilres for Luxemburger Wort and RTL, 23 March–6 April 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei |
28.3% |
27.1% |
25.8–28.5% |
25.5–28.8% |
25.1–29.2% |
24.5–29.8% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei |
17.6% |
17.9% |
16.8–19.1% |
16.5–19.4% |
16.2–19.7% |
15.7–20.3% |
Demokratesch Partei |
16.9% |
17.1% |
16.0–18.2% |
15.7–18.6% |
15.4–18.9% |
14.9–19.4% |
déi gréng |
15.1% |
12.8% |
11.8–13.8% |
11.6–14.1% |
11.3–14.4% |
10.9–14.9% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg |
6.4% |
10.0% |
9.2–11.0% |
8.9–11.2% |
8.7–11.5% |
8.4–11.9% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei |
8.3% |
7.5% |
6.8–8.3% |
6.5–8.6% |
6.4–8.8% |
6.0–9.2% |
déi Lénk |
5.5% |
4.3% |
3.7–5.0% |
3.6–5.2% |
3.5–5.3% |
3.2–5.7% |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg |
1.3% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.3–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
40% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
22% |
60% |
Median |
19 |
27% |
37% |
|
20 |
8% |
11% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
22 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
39% |
100% |
|
10 |
15% |
61% |
Last Result, Median |
11 |
22% |
46% |
|
12 |
23% |
23% |
|
13 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Demokratesch Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
5% |
100% |
|
10 |
6% |
95% |
|
11 |
8% |
89% |
|
12 |
16% |
82% |
Last Result |
13 |
66% |
66% |
Median |
14 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
déi gréng
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
7 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
8 |
95% |
96% |
Median |
9 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
5% |
100% |
|
5 |
46% |
95% |
Median |
6 |
16% |
49% |
|
7 |
33% |
33% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
13% |
100% |
|
3 |
10% |
87% |
|
4 |
74% |
77% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
déi Lénk
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
|
1 |
10% |
98% |
|
2 |
88% |
88% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei |
33 |
30 |
44% |
29–32 |
28–32 |
28–33 |
27–33 |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – Demokratesch Partei – déi gréng |
31 |
30 |
48% |
29–32 |
28–33 |
28–33 |
26–33 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei |
31 |
28 |
11% |
27–31 |
26–31 |
26–32 |
26–32 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei |
21 |
18 |
0% |
17–20 |
17–20 |
17–21 |
17–21 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
5% |
98% |
|
29 |
10% |
93% |
|
30 |
39% |
83% |
|
31 |
21% |
44% |
Median, Majority |
32 |
19% |
23% |
|
33 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
34 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – Demokratesch Partei – déi gréng
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
28 |
3% |
98% |
|
29 |
11% |
95% |
|
30 |
36% |
84% |
|
31 |
19% |
48% |
Last Result, Median, Majority |
32 |
23% |
29% |
|
33 |
5% |
5% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
9% |
100% |
|
27 |
13% |
91% |
|
28 |
40% |
78% |
Median |
29 |
19% |
38% |
|
30 |
9% |
19% |
|
31 |
7% |
11% |
Last Result, Majority |
32 |
3% |
3% |
|
33 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
40% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
22% |
60% |
Median |
19 |
27% |
37% |
|
20 |
8% |
11% |
|
21 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
22 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: TNS Ilres
- Commissioner(s): Luxemburger Wort and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 23 March–6 April 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1885
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.01%