Opinion Poll by Ilres for Luxemburger Wort and RTL, 7–16 August 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 28.3% | 28.3% | 27.0–29.7% | 26.6–30.0% | 26.3–30.4% | 25.7–31.0% |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 17.6% | 19.8% | 18.7–21.0% | 18.4–21.4% | 18.1–21.7% | 17.5–22.3% |
| Demokratesch Partei | 16.9% | 17.4% | 16.3–18.5% | 16.0–18.9% | 15.7–19.2% | 15.2–19.7% |
| déi gréng | 15.1% | 10.7% | 9.8–11.7% | 9.6–11.9% | 9.4–12.2% | 9.0–12.7% |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg | 6.4% | 9.6% | 8.8–10.5% | 8.5–10.8% | 8.3–11.0% | 8.0–11.5% |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.2–7.7% | 6.0–7.9% | 5.8–8.1% | 5.5–8.5% |
| déi Lénk | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.8–6.4% |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 21 | 19 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 10 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 |
| Demokratesch Partei | 12 | 13 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| déi gréng | 9 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 |
| Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg | 2 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei | 4 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| déi Lénk | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 14% | 100% | |
| 18 | 12% | 86% | |
| 19 | 44% | 74% | Median |
| 20 | 18% | 30% | |
| 21 | 9% | 12% | Last Result |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 11 | 12% | 97% | |
| 12 | 54% | 85% | Median |
| 13 | 31% | 31% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratesch Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 5% | 97% | |
| 11 | 7% | 91% | |
| 12 | 15% | 84% | Last Result |
| 13 | 68% | 69% | Median |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
déi gréng
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 10% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 62% | 89% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 27% | |
| 8 | 13% | 13% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 20% | 100% | |
| 5 | 51% | 80% | Median |
| 6 | 8% | 29% | |
| 7 | 21% | 21% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 51% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 49% | |
| 4 | 30% | 31% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
déi Lénk
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.4% | 99.5% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei | 33 | 32 | 76% | 30–33 | 29–34 | 29–34 | 28–35 |
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei | 31 | 31 | 69% | 29–33 | 29–34 | 29–34 | 28–35 |
| Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – Demokratesch Partei – déi gréng | 31 | 31 | 58% | 29–32 | 29–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei | 21 | 19 | 0% | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 18% | 94% | |
| 31 | 20% | 76% | Majority |
| 32 | 38% | 56% | Median |
| 33 | 13% | 18% | Last Result |
| 34 | 4% | 5% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 8% | 98% | |
| 30 | 21% | 90% | |
| 31 | 29% | 69% | Last Result, Median, Majority |
| 32 | 23% | 40% | |
| 33 | 10% | 17% | |
| 34 | 6% | 7% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – Demokratesch Partei – déi gréng

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 29 | 6% | 96% | |
| 30 | 32% | 90% | |
| 31 | 25% | 58% | Last Result, Median, Majority |
| 32 | 26% | 33% | |
| 33 | 5% | 7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 14% | 100% | |
| 18 | 12% | 86% | |
| 19 | 44% | 74% | Median |
| 20 | 18% | 30% | |
| 21 | 9% | 12% | Last Result |
| 22 | 3% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ilres
- Commissioner(s): Luxemburger Wort and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 7–16 August 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1887
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.49%