Opinion Poll by Ilres for Luxemburger Wort and RTL, 7–16 August 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei |
28.3% |
28.3% |
27.0–29.7% |
26.6–30.0% |
26.3–30.4% |
25.7–31.0% |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei |
17.6% |
19.8% |
18.7–21.0% |
18.4–21.4% |
18.1–21.7% |
17.5–22.3% |
Demokratesch Partei |
16.9% |
17.4% |
16.3–18.5% |
16.0–18.9% |
15.7–19.2% |
15.2–19.7% |
déi gréng |
15.1% |
10.7% |
9.8–11.7% |
9.6–11.9% |
9.4–12.2% |
9.0–12.7% |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg |
6.4% |
9.6% |
8.8–10.5% |
8.5–10.8% |
8.3–11.0% |
8.0–11.5% |
Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei |
8.3% |
6.9% |
6.2–7.7% |
6.0–7.9% |
5.8–8.1% |
5.5–8.5% |
déi Lénk |
5.5% |
5.0% |
4.4–5.7% |
4.2–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.8–6.4% |
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg |
1.3% |
0.4% |
0.3–0.7% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
14% |
100% |
|
18 |
12% |
86% |
|
19 |
44% |
74% |
Median |
20 |
18% |
30% |
|
21 |
9% |
12% |
Last Result |
22 |
3% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
10 |
2% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
11 |
12% |
97% |
|
12 |
54% |
85% |
Median |
13 |
31% |
31% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Demokratesch Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratesch Partei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
3% |
100% |
|
10 |
5% |
97% |
|
11 |
7% |
91% |
|
12 |
15% |
84% |
Last Result |
13 |
68% |
69% |
Median |
14 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
déi gréng
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi gréng page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
10% |
98.9% |
|
6 |
62% |
89% |
Median |
7 |
14% |
27% |
|
8 |
13% |
13% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
20% |
100% |
|
5 |
51% |
80% |
Median |
6 |
8% |
29% |
|
7 |
21% |
21% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternativ Demokratesch Reformpartei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
51% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
18% |
49% |
|
4 |
30% |
31% |
Last Result |
5 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
déi Lénk
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the déi Lénk page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.4% |
99.5% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kommunistesch Partei Lëtzebuerg page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei |
33 |
32 |
76% |
30–33 |
29–34 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei |
31 |
31 |
69% |
29–33 |
29–34 |
29–34 |
28–35 |
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – Demokratesch Partei – déi gréng |
31 |
31 |
58% |
29–32 |
29–33 |
28–33 |
27–34 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei |
21 |
19 |
0% |
17–21 |
17–21 |
17–22 |
17–22 |
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Demokratesch Partei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
29 |
5% |
98% |
|
30 |
18% |
94% |
|
31 |
20% |
76% |
Majority |
32 |
38% |
56% |
Median |
33 |
13% |
18% |
Last Result |
34 |
4% |
5% |
|
35 |
2% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei – Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
2% |
100% |
|
29 |
8% |
98% |
|
30 |
21% |
90% |
|
31 |
29% |
69% |
Last Result, Median, Majority |
32 |
23% |
40% |
|
33 |
10% |
17% |
|
34 |
6% |
7% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei – Demokratesch Partei – déi gréng
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.3% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
29 |
6% |
96% |
|
30 |
32% |
90% |
|
31 |
25% |
58% |
Last Result, Median, Majority |
32 |
26% |
33% |
|
33 |
5% |
7% |
|
34 |
2% |
2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
14% |
100% |
|
18 |
12% |
86% |
|
19 |
44% |
74% |
Median |
20 |
18% |
30% |
|
21 |
9% |
12% |
Last Result |
22 |
3% |
4% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ilres
- Commissioner(s): Luxemburger Wort and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 7–16 August 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1887
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.49%