Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Porto Canal and Sol, 31 May–3 June 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista (S&D) | 31.5% | 40.0% | 38.0–42.0% | 37.5–42.5% | 37.0–43.0% | 36.1–44.0% |
| Partido Social Democrata (EPP) | 27.7% | 27.2% | 25.5–29.1% | 25.0–29.6% | 24.6–30.1% | 23.8–30.9% |
| Chega (ID) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.4–9.6% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.3% | 6.4–10.9% |
| Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) | 12.7% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Iniciativa Liberal (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.7–4.3% |
| CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) | 27.7% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista (S&D) | 8 | 10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Partido Social Democrata (EPP) | 6 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Chega (ID) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Iniciativa Liberal (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Socialista (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 30% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 66% | 70% | Median |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | Majority |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 58% | 99.7% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 42% | 42% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Chega (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (ID) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 20% | 100% | |
| 2 | 79% | 80% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 99.4% | 99.6% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Iniciativa Liberal (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista (S&D) | 8 | 10 | 4% | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Partido Social Democrata (EPP) – CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) | 7 | 6 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) | 4 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Chega (ID) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Partido Socialista (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 30% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 66% | 70% | Median |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | Majority |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata (EPP) – CDS–Partido Popular (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 57% | 99.7% | Median |
| 7 | 42% | 43% | Last Result |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Chega (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 20% | 100% | |
| 2 | 79% | 80% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eurosondagem
- Commissioner(s): Porto Canal and Sol
- Fieldwork period: 31 May–3 June 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1021
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.40%