Partido Socialista (S&D)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 26.1% | 23.8–28.6% | 23.1–29.4% | 22.6–30.1% | 21.6–31.5% |
| 12–15 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
25.6% | 23.7–27.6% | 23.1–28.2% | 22.7–28.7% | 21.8–29.7% |
| 11–14 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
25.2% | 23.3–27.2% | 22.8–27.8% | 22.3–28.3% | 21.4–29.3% |
| 10–13 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
26.3% | 24.4–28.3% | 23.8–28.9% | 23.4–29.4% | 22.5–30.5% |
| 6–13 May 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
26.0% | 23.8–28.4% | 23.1–29.1% | 22.6–29.7% | 21.6–30.8% |
| 6–13 May 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
26.0% | 24.7–27.4% | 24.3–27.8% | 24.0–28.1% | 23.4–28.8% |
| 9–12 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
24.6% | 22.7–26.6% | 22.2–27.2% | 21.7–27.7% | 20.9–28.6% |
| 8–11 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
25.1% | 23.2–27.1% | 22.6–27.7% | 22.2–28.2% | 21.3–29.2% |
| 7–10 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
25.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–9 May 2025 | Pitágorica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
25.9% | 24.0–28.0% | 23.5–28.6% | 23.0–29.1% | 22.1–30.1% |
| 5–8 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
26.3% | 24.4–28.3% | 23.8–28.9% | 23.4–29.4% | 22.5–30.5% |
| 4–7 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
26.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–6 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
26.0% | 24.1–28.1% | 23.6–28.7% | 23.1–29.2% | 22.3–30.2% |
| 28 April–6 May 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
28.0% | 26.5–29.6% | 26.1–30.0% | 25.8–30.4% | 25.1–31.1% |
| 2–5 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
26.5% | 24.6–28.6% | 24.1–29.2% | 23.6–29.7% | 22.7–30.7% |
| 24 April–5 May 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
24.0% | 22.5–25.9% | 22.0–26.4% | 21.6–26.9% | 20.8–27.8% |
| 25 April–5 May 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
27.0% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.4–29.9% | 23.6–30.8% |
| 1–5 May 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
28.1% | 26.0–30.5% | 25.3–31.1% | 24.8–31.7% | 23.8–32.8% |
| 1–4 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
27.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 April–3 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
26.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29 April–2 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
27.7% | 25.7–29.7% | 25.1–30.3% | 24.7–30.8% | 23.8–31.9% |
| 28 April–1 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
27.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–24 April 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
26.0% | 24.4–27.7% | 24.0–28.2% | 23.6–28.6% | 22.9–29.4% |
| 14–22 April 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
27.1% | 24.8–29.6% | 24.1–30.3% | 23.6–30.9% | 22.5–32.1% |
| 14–21 April 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
28.1% | 26.3–30.0% | 25.8–30.5% | 25.4–31.0% | 24.6–31.9% |
| 5–14 April 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
29.0% | 27.0–31.1% | 26.5–31.7% | 26.0–32.3% | 25.0–33.3% |
| 4–9 April 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
28.8% | 26.3–31.5% | 25.6–32.2% | 25.0–32.9% | 23.9–34.2% |
| 4–8 April 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
30.1% | 27.9–32.5% | 27.3–33.2% | 26.8–33.7% | 25.7–34.9% |
| 1–6 April 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
28.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27 March–3 April 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
25.9% | 23.7–28.3% | 23.0–29.0% | 22.5–29.6% | 21.5–30.8% |
| 24–29 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
27.8% | 26.0–29.7% | 25.5–30.2% | 25.1–30.7% | 24.3–31.6% |
| 20–26 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
26.9% | 24.5–29.5% | 23.8–30.2% | 23.2–30.8% | 22.1–32.1% |
| 17–26 March 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
27.0% | 25.4–28.7% | 25.0–29.2% | 24.6–29.6% | 23.8–30.4% |
| 15–24 March 2025 | GfK Metris | 32.0% | 30.2–33.9% | 29.6–34.5% | 29.2–34.9% | 28.3–35.8% |
| 17–21 March 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
31.0% | 29.2–33.0% | 28.6–33.5% | 28.2–34.0% | 27.3–35.0% |
| 12–17 March 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
28.0% | 25.3–30.9% | 24.6–31.7% | 23.9–32.5% | 22.7–33.9% |
| 11–13 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
27.8% | 25.4–30.4% | 24.8–31.2% | 24.2–31.8% | 23.1–33.0% |
| 6–12 March 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
27.9% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.0–31.1% | 24.5–31.7% | 23.4–32.9% |
| 4–10 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
28.7% | 26.2–31.2% | 25.6–32.0% | 25.0–32.6% | 23.9–33.9% |
| 6–8 March 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
30.8% | 28.4–33.3% | 27.8–34.0% | 27.2–34.6% | 26.1–35.8% |
| 3–6 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
28.8% | 26.6–31.2% | 25.9–31.9% | 25.4–32.5% | 24.3–33.7% |
| 23–27 February 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
27.2% | 24.5–30.2% | 23.8–31.1% | 23.1–31.8% | 21.9–33.3% |
| 23–28 January 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
28.1% | 26.2–30.2% | 25.6–30.8% | 25.1–31.4% | 24.2–32.4% |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
27.2% | 24.5–30.2% | 23.8–31.1% | 23.1–31.8% | 21.9–33.3% |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
28.2% | 25.9–30.7% | 25.2–31.5% | 24.6–32.1% | 23.5–33.3% |
| 16–21 January 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
26.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–20 January 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
30.1% | 28.0–32.2% | 27.5–32.8% | 27.0–33.3% | 26.0–34.4% |
| 28 December 2024–5 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
27.0% | 24.3–30.0% | 23.5–30.8% | 22.9–31.6% | 21.6–33.0% |
| 21–27 November 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
30.1% | 27.8–32.6% | 27.1–33.3% | 26.6–33.9% | 25.5–35.1% |
| 15–22 November 2024 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
26.8% | 24.8–28.8% | 24.3–29.4% | 23.8–29.9% | 22.9–30.9% |
| 13–19 November 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
28.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–23 October 2024 | CESOP–UCP Antena 1, Público and RTP |
29.0% | 27.2–30.8% | 26.7–31.4% | 26.3–31.8% | 25.4–32.7% |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
29.6% | 27.3–32.0% | 26.6–32.7% | 26.1–33.3% | 25.0–34.5% |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
28.6% | 26.6–30.7% | 26.0–31.3% | 25.5–31.8% | 24.6–32.8% |
| 29 August–4 September 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
31.5% | 29.1–34.0% | 28.4–34.7% | 27.9–35.3% | 26.8–36.5% |
| 19–26 July 2024 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
25.9% | 23.8–28.3% | 23.1–29.0% | 22.6–29.6% | 21.6–30.7% |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
33.0% | 31.1–35.0% | 30.6–35.6% | 30.1–36.1% | 29.2–37.0% |
| 3–8 July 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
29.5% | 27.5–31.6% | 26.9–32.2% | 26.4–32.7% | 25.5–33.8% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partido Socialista (S&D).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 6% | 98% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 12% | 92% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 18% | 80% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 22% | 62% | Median |
| 26.5–27.5% | 18% | 41% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 12% | 22% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 6% | 11% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 12–15 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 11–14 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 10–13 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 6–13 May 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 6–13 May 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 9–12 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 8–11 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 7–10 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
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| 6–9 May 2025 | Pitágorica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 5–8 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 4–7 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
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| 3–6 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 28 April–6 May 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 2–5 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 24 April–5 May 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 25 April–5 May 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 1–5 May 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 1–4 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
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| 30 April–3 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
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| 29 April–2 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| 28 April–1 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
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| 21–24 April 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 14–22 April 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 14–21 April 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 5–14 April 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 4–9 April 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 4–8 April 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| 1–6 April 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
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| 27 March–3 April 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 24–29 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 20–26 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 17–26 March 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 15–24 March 2025 | GfK Metris | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| 17–21 March 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| 12–17 March 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 11–13 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 6–12 March 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 4–10 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 6–8 March 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| 3–6 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 23–27 February 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 23–28 January 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 16–21 January 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
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| 9–20 January 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 28 December 2024–5 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| 21–27 November 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| 15–22 November 2024 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 13–19 November 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
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| 17–23 October 2024 | CESOP–UCP Antena 1, Público and RTP |
7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 29 August–4 September 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| 19–26 July 2024 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
6 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| 3–8 July 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partido Socialista (S&D).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 66% | 91% | Median |
| 7 | 24% | 25% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |