Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 90 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | CDU | BE | PAN | L | PS | IL | A | PSD | CDS–PP | AD | CH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 June 2024 | General Election | 0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 2–5% 0–1 |
3–8% 0–1 |
1–3% 0 |
2–5% 0–1 |
26–35% 6–9 |
5–9% 1–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
26–35% 6–9 |
12–17% 3–4 |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
3–6% 0–1 |
4–8% 1–2 |
1–3% 0 |
2–5% 0–1 |
26–33% 6–8 |
6–10% 1–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
25–32% 6–8 |
12–17% 2–4 |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
2–4% 0–1 |
4–7% 1 |
1–4% 0 |
2–5% 0–1 |
26–32% 6–8 |
5–8% 1–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
29–35% 7–9 |
13–18% 3–4 |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
2–4% 0–1 |
3–5% 0–1 |
1–3% 0 |
2–4% 0–1 |
30–36% 7–9 |
6–9% 1–2 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
28–34% 7–8 |
12–16% 3–4 |
| 9 June 2024 | General Election | 0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- CDU: Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)
- BE: Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)
- PAN: Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)
- L: LIVRE (Greens/EFA)
- PS: Partido Socialista (S&D)
- IL: Iniciativa Liberal (RE)
- A: Aliança (RE)
- PSD: Partido Social Democrata (EPP)
- CDS–PP: CDS–Partido Popular (EPP)
- AD: Aliança Democrática (EPP)
- CH: Chega (PfE)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.8% | 2.1–5.1% | 1.9–5.8% |
| Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 3.7–6.9% | 3.4–7.3% | 3.2–7.7% | 2.8–8.5% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.3–3.4% | 1.0–3.8% |
| LIVRE (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.6–4.4% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–4.9% | 1.9–5.5% |
| Partido Socialista (S&D) | 0.0% | 30.2% | 27.3–33.9% | 26.6–34.7% | 26.0–35.3% | 25.0–36.4% |
| Iniciativa Liberal (RE) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.2–9.3% | 4.7–10.2% |
| Aliança (RE) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Partido Social Democrata (EPP) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Aliança Democrática (EPP) | 0.0% | 30.7% | 27.3–33.3% | 26.5–34.0% | 25.8–34.6% | 24.5–35.8% |
| Chega (PfE) | 0.0% | 14.4% | 12.8–16.3% | 12.3–16.8% | 11.9–17.3% | 11.1–18.2% |
Iniciativa Liberal (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 26% | 94% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 37% | 68% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 22% | 31% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 7% | 9% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 8% | 95% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 13% | 87% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 15% | 74% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 13% | 59% | Median |
| 30.5–31.5% | 12% | 46% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 11% | 34% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 10% | 23% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 7% | 13% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 4% | 6% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38.5–39.5% | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 12% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 51% | 88% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 29% | 37% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 7% | 7% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 11% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 65% | 89% | Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 23% | 24% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% |
Chega (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 18% | 93% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 28% | 75% | Median |
| 14.5–15.5% | 25% | 46% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 14% | 21% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 5% | 7% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 23% | 93% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 28% | 69% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 27% | 42% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 12% | 15% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 3% | 3% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% |
Aliança Democrática (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 3% | 98% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 6% | 95% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 9% | 88% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 12% | 80% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 15% | 68% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 31.5–32.5% | 16% | 35% | |
| 32.5–33.5% | 11% | 19% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 5% | 8% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 0% | 0% |
LIVRE (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 9% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 51% | 91% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 34% | 41% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 6% | 6% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LIVRE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partido Socialista (S&D) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Iniciativa Liberal (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Aliança (RE) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Partido Social Democrata (EPP) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Aliança Democrática (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Chega (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 78% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 22% | 22% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 87% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
LIVRE (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 76% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 24% | 24% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 48% | 88% | Median |
| 8 | 32% | 40% | |
| 9 | 8% | 8% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Iniciativa Liberal (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 22% | 22% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Aliança (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança (RE) page.
Partido Social Democrata (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata (EPP) page.
CDS–Partido Popular (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) page.
Aliança Democrática (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 42% | 88% | Median |
| 8 | 43% | 46% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Chega (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 76% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 22% | 22% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliança Democrática (EPP) – CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) – Partido Social Democrata (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Partido Socialista (S&D) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Chega (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Aliança (RE) – Iniciativa Liberal (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Aliança Democrática (EPP) – CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) – Partido Social Democrata (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 42% | 88% | Median |
| 8 | 43% | 46% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 48% | 88% | Median |
| 8 | 32% | 40% | |
| 9 | 8% | 8% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Chega (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 76% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 22% | 22% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Aliança (RE) – Iniciativa Liberal (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 78% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 22% | 22% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 68% | 89% | Median |
| 2 | 21% | 22% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 76% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 24% | 24% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 3
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 2,097,152
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 6,291,456
- Error estimate: 2.15%