Poll Average

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Summary

The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 90 days old) registered and analyzed so far.

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) CDU BE PAN L PS IL A PSD CDS–PP AD CH
9 June 2024 General Election 0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
N/A Poll Average 2–5%
0–1
3–8%
0–1
1–3%
0
2–5%
0–1
26–32%
6–8
5–9%
1–2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
26–35%
6–9
12–20%
3–5
17–23 October 2024 CESOP–UCP
Antena 1, Público and RTP
2–4%
0–1
3–5%
0–1
1–3%
0
2–4%
0–1
26–32%
6–8
5–8%
1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
30–36%
7–9
16–21%
4–5
4–10 October 2024 Intercampus
Correio da Manhã and Negócios
3–6%
0–1
4–8%
1–2
1–3%
0
2–5%
0–1
26–33%
6–8
6–10%
1–2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
25–32%
6–8
12–17%
2–4
30 September–5 October 2024 Aximage
Diário de Notícias
2–4%
0–1
4–7%
1
1–4%
0
2–5%
0–1
26–32%
6–8
5–8%
1–2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
29–35%
7–9
13–18%
3–4
9 June 2024 General Election 0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0

Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.

Legend:

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.8% 2.2–5.1% 1.9–5.8%
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.3% 3.7–6.9% 3.5–7.3% 3.2–7.7% 2.9–8.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.2% 1.6–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.3–3.4% 1.0–3.8%
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.4% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–4.9% 2.0–5.5%
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0.0% 29.0% 27.0–31.3% 26.4–31.9% 25.9–32.5% 24.9–33.8%
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0.0% 6.6% 5.4–8.3% 5.1–8.8% 4.9–9.3% 4.5–10.1%
Aliança (RE) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Partido Social Democrata (EPP) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0.0% 31.6% 27.4–34.2% 26.5–34.9% 25.8–35.4% 24.5–36.5%
Chega (PfE) 0.0% 15.6% 13.2–18.7% 12.6–19.4% 12.1–19.9% 11.3–20.8%

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 12% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 52% 88% Median
3.5–4.5% 29% 36%  
4.5–5.5% 6% 7%  
5.5–6.5% 0.8% 0.9%  
6.5–7.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 100%  
8.5–9.5% 0% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 0% 100%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 100%  
12.5–13.5% 0% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 0% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 0% 100%  
15.5–16.5% 0% 100%  
16.5–17.5% 0% 100%  
17.5–18.5% 0% 100%  
18.5–19.5% 0% 100%  
19.5–20.5% 0% 100%  
20.5–21.5% 0% 100%  
21.5–22.5% 0% 100%  
22.5–23.5% 0% 100%  
23.5–24.5% 0.2% 100%  
24.5–25.5% 1.2% 99.8%  
25.5–26.5% 5% 98.6%  
26.5–27.5% 12% 94%  
27.5–28.5% 20% 82%  
28.5–29.5% 24% 62% Median
29.5–30.5% 19% 38%  
30.5–31.5% 11% 19%  
31.5–32.5% 5% 7%  
32.5–33.5% 2% 2%  
33.5–34.5% 0.5% 0.7%  
34.5–35.5% 0.1% 0.2%  
35.5–36.5% 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0.7% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 12% 99.3%  
5.5–6.5% 35% 87%  
6.5–7.5% 30% 52% Median
7.5–8.5% 15% 22%  
8.5–9.5% 6% 7%  
9.5–10.5% 1.3% 2%  
10.5–11.5% 0.2% 0.2%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 10% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 65% 90% Median
2.5–3.5% 23% 25%  
3.5–4.5% 1.4% 1.4%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 100%  
8.5–9.5% 0% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 0.1% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 0.8% 99.9%  
11.5–12.5% 4% 99.1%  
12.5–13.5% 10% 95%  
13.5–14.5% 17% 86%  
14.5–15.5% 18% 69%  
15.5–16.5% 14% 51% Median
16.5–17.5% 12% 36%  
17.5–18.5% 12% 24%  
18.5–19.5% 8% 12%  
19.5–20.5% 3% 4%  
20.5–21.5% 0.7% 0.8%  
21.5–22.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
22.5–23.5% 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0.1% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 7% 99.9%  
3.5–4.5% 24% 93%  
4.5–5.5% 28% 70% Median
5.5–6.5% 27% 42%  
6.5–7.5% 12% 15%  
7.5–8.5% 3% 3%  
8.5–9.5% 0.4% 0.4%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 0%  

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 100%  
8.5–9.5% 0% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 0% 100%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 100%  
12.5–13.5% 0% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 0% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 0% 100%  
15.5–16.5% 0% 100%  
16.5–17.5% 0% 100%  
17.5–18.5% 0% 100%  
18.5–19.5% 0% 100%  
19.5–20.5% 0% 100%  
20.5–21.5% 0% 100%  
21.5–22.5% 0% 100%  
22.5–23.5% 0.1% 100%  
23.5–24.5% 0.4% 99.9%  
24.5–25.5% 1.4% 99.4%  
25.5–26.5% 3% 98%  
26.5–27.5% 6% 95%  
27.5–28.5% 8% 89%  
28.5–29.5% 8% 81%  
29.5–30.5% 10% 73%  
30.5–31.5% 13% 63%  
31.5–32.5% 16% 50% Median
32.5–33.5% 16% 34%  
33.5–34.5% 11% 18%  
34.5–35.5% 5% 7%  
35.5–36.5% 2% 2%  
36.5–37.5% 0.4% 0.4%  
37.5–38.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
38.5–39.5% 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 8% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 51% 91% Median
3.5–4.5% 34% 40%  
4.5–5.5% 6% 6%  
5.5–6.5% 0.5% 0.5%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Aliança (RE) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Partido Social Democrata (EPP) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Aliança Democrática (EPP) 0 8 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–9
Chega (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–5

Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 86% 88% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the LIVRE (Greens/EFA) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 23%  
2 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 16% 99.9%  
7 72% 84% Median
8 13% 13%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Iniciativa Liberal (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Aliança (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Partido Social Democrata (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Aliança Democrática (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança Democrática (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 12% 99.8%  
7 32% 88%  
8 50% 56% Median
9 7% 7%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega (PfE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 48% 98%  
4 45% 50% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Aliança Democrática (EPP) – CDS–Partido Popular (EPP) – Partido Social Democrata (EPP) 0 8 0% 6–8 6–9 6–9 6–9
Partido Socialista (S&D) 0 7 0% 6–8 6–8 6–8 6–8
Chega (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–5 2–5
Aliança (RE) – Iniciativa Liberal (RE) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3
LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 12% 99.8%  
7 32% 88%  
8 50% 56% Median
9 7% 7%  
10 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 16% 99.9%  
7 72% 84% Median
8 13% 13%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Chega (PfE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 48% 98%  
4 45% 50% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Aliança (RE) – Iniciativa Liberal (RE)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda (GUE/NGL) – Coligação Democrática Unitária (GUE/NGL)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 68% 90% Median
2 21% 21%  
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

LIVRE (Greens/EFA) – Pessoas–Animais–Natureza (Greens/EFA)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 24%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information