Iniciativa Liberal (RE)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6.4% | 4.9–8.1% | 4.5–8.6% | 4.3–9.1% | 3.8–10.1% |
| 12–15 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
5.8% | 4.9–7.0% | 4.6–7.3% | 4.4–7.6% | 4.0–8.2% |
| 11–14 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
5.6% | 4.6–6.7% | 4.4–7.1% | 4.2–7.4% | 3.8–8.0% |
| 10–13 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
7.0% | 6.0–8.3% | 5.7–8.7% | 5.5–9.0% | 5.0–9.7% |
| 6–13 May 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
7.6% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.1–9.7% | 5.8–10.1% | 5.2–10.9% |
| 6–13 May 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
7.0% | 6.3–7.9% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.6–8.7% |
| 9–12 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6.3% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.0–7.9% | 4.8–8.2% | 4.4–8.8% |
| 8–11 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6.9% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% | 5.4–8.9% | 4.9–9.5% |
| 7–10 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–9 May 2025 | Pitágorica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
5.6% | 4.6–6.7% | 4.4–7.1% | 4.2–7.4% | 3.8–8.0% |
| 5–8 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
5.9% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.7–7.5% | 4.5–7.8% | 4.1–8.4% |
| 4–7 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–6 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6.8% | 5.8–8.1% | 5.5–8.4% | 5.2–8.7% | 4.8–9.4% |
| 28 April–6 May 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6.0% | 5.3–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.6–7.8% |
| 2–5 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6.8% | 5.8–8.1% | 5.5–8.4% | 5.2–8.7% | 4.8–9.4% |
| 24 April–5 May 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 25 April–5 May 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 1–5 May 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
7.3% | 6.2–8.8% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.6–9.6% | 5.1–10.4% |
| 1–4 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
7.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 April–3 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29 April–2 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6.9% | 5.9–8.2% | 5.6–8.6% | 5.4–8.9% | 4.9–9.5% |
| 28 April–1 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
7.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–24 April 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.5–8.0% |
| 14–22 April 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
8.3% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.6–10.4% | 6.3–10.8% | 5.7–11.7% |
| 14–21 April 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
7.4% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.2–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| 5–14 April 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.8–5.6% | 2.5–6.1% |
| 4–9 April 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
6.8% | 5.6–8.5% | 5.2–8.9% | 4.9–9.3% | 4.4–10.2% |
| 4–8 April 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
6.1% | 5.1–7.5% | 4.8–7.9% | 4.6–8.2% | 4.1–8.9% |
| 1–6 April 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
8.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27 March–3 April 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
8.1% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.4–10.2% | 6.1–10.6% | 5.5–11.4% |
| 24–29 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 20–26 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
10.7% | 9.2–12.7% | 8.7–13.2% | 8.4–13.7% | 7.7–14.7% |
| 17–26 March 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
8.0% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.6–9.6% | 6.1–10.2% |
| 15–24 March 2025 | GfK Metris | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 17–21 March 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
6.9% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| 12–17 March 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
7.8% | 6.3–9.7% | 5.9–10.2% | 5.6–10.7% | 5.0–11.7% |
| 11–13 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
9.2% | 7.8–11.0% | 7.4–11.5% | 7.0–12.0% | 6.4–12.9% |
| 6–12 March 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
7.7% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.1–9.8% | 5.9–10.2% | 5.3–11.0% |
| 4–10 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
7.9% | 6.6–9.6% | 6.3–10.1% | 6.0–10.5% | 5.4–11.4% |
| 6–8 March 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
7.3% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.8–9.3% | 5.5–9.7% | 5.0–10.5% |
| 3–6 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6.7% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.3–8.6% | 5.0–9.0% | 4.5–9.7% |
| 23–27 February 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
5.0% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.5–7.2% | 3.3–7.6% | 2.8–8.5% |
| 23–28 January 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
5.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.2–7.5% | 3.8–8.1% |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6.2% | 4.9–8.1% | 4.6–8.6% | 4.3–9.1% | 3.7–10.0% |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
7.0% | 5.8–8.6% | 5.4–9.0% | 5.1–9.4% | 4.6–10.2% |
| 16–21 January 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
6.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–20 January 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.8–5.6% | 2.5–6.1% |
| 28 December 2024–5 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
5.8% | 4.5–7.5% | 4.1–8.0% | 3.9–8.5% | 3.3–9.4% |
| 21–27 November 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
8.3% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.6–10.3% | 6.3–10.7% | 5.8–11.6% |
| 15–22 November 2024 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| 13–19 November 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
6.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–23 October 2024 | CESOP–UCP Antena 1, Público and RTP |
6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.4–8.2% |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7.5% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.0–9.5% | 5.7–9.9% | 5.2–10.7% |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
6.4% | 5.4–7.6% | 5.1–8.0% | 4.9–8.3% | 4.4–8.9% |
| 29 August–4 September 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
8.3% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.6–10.3% | 6.3–10.8% | 5.8–11.6% |
| 19–26 July 2024 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
9.9% | 8.5–11.6% | 8.1–12.1% | 7.7–12.5% | 7.1–13.4% |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
7.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.5–8.8% | 5.1–9.4% |
| 3–8 July 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
7.1% | 6.1–8.4% | 5.8–8.8% | 5.5–9.1% | 5.1–9.8% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Iniciativa Liberal (RE).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 21% | 95% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 29% | 74% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 26% | 45% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 13% | 19% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 4% | 6% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| 12–15 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| 11–14 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| 10–13 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 6–13 May 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 6–13 May 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 9–12 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 8–11 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 7–10 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
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| 6–9 May 2025 | Pitágorica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| 5–8 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 4–7 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
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| 3–6 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 28 April–6 May 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 2–5 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 24 April–5 May 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 25 April–5 May 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 1–5 May 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 1–4 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
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| 30 April–3 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
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| 29 April–2 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 28 April–1 May 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
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| 21–24 April 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 14–22 April 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 14–21 April 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 5–14 April 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 4–9 April 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 4–8 April 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 1–6 April 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
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| 27 March–3 April 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 24–29 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 20–26 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| 17–26 March 2025 | CESOP–UCP Público and RTP |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 15–24 March 2025 | GfK Metris | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 17–21 March 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 12–17 March 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 11–13 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 6–12 March 2025 | Consulmark2 Euronews and Sol |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 4–10 March 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 6–8 March 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 3–6 March 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 23–27 February 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 23–28 January 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 16–21 January 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
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| 9–20 January 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 28 December 2024–5 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 21–27 November 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 15–22 November 2024 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 13–19 November 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
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| 17–23 October 2024 | CESOP–UCP Antena 1, Público and RTP |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 29 August–4 September 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 19–26 July 2024 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 3–8 July 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Iniciativa Liberal (RE).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 86% | 99.2% | Median |
| 2 | 13% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |