Iniciativa Liberal (RE)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5.8% | 3.8–7.8% | 3.5–8.4% | 3.2–8.8% | 2.8–9.8% |
| 23–28 January 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
5.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.2–7.5% | 3.8–8.1% |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
6.2% | 4.9–8.1% | 4.6–8.6% | 4.3–9.1% | 3.7–10.0% |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
7.0% | 5.8–8.6% | 5.4–9.0% | 5.1–9.4% | 4.6–10.2% |
| 16–21 January 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
6.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–20 January 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.8–5.6% | 2.5–6.1% |
| 28 December 2024–5 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
5.8% | 4.5–7.5% | 4.1–8.0% | 3.9–8.5% | 3.3–9.4% |
| 21–27 November 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
8.3% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.6–10.3% | 6.3–10.7% | 5.8–11.6% |
| 15–22 November 2024 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| 13–19 November 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
6.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–23 October 2024 | CESOP–UCP Antena 1, Público and RTP |
6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.4–8.2% |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7.5% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.0–9.5% | 5.7–9.9% | 5.2–10.7% |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
6.4% | 5.4–7.6% | 5.1–8.0% | 4.9–8.3% | 4.4–8.9% |
| 29 August–4 September 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
8.3% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.6–10.3% | 6.3–10.8% | 5.8–11.6% |
| 19–26 July 2024 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
9.9% | 8.5–11.6% | 8.1–12.1% | 7.7–12.5% | 7.1–13.4% |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
7.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.5–8.8% | 5.1–9.4% |
| 3–8 July 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
7.1% | 6.1–8.4% | 5.8–8.8% | 5.5–9.1% | 5.1–9.8% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Iniciativa Liberal (RE).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 16% | 94% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 21% | 78% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 25% | 58% | Median |
| 6.5–7.5% | 19% | 32% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 10% | 13% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 23–28 January 2025 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| 21–26 January 2025 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 16–21 January 2025 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
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| 9–20 January 2025 | ICS/ISCTE Expresso and SIC Notícias |
1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 28 December 2024–5 January 2025 | Pitagórica CNN Portugal, Jornal de Notícias, TSF and TVI |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 21–27 November 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 15–22 November 2024 | Aximage Folha Nacional |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 13–19 November 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
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| 17–23 October 2024 | CESOP–UCP Antena 1, Público and RTP |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 29 August–4 September 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 19–26 July 2024 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 3–8 July 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Iniciativa Liberal (RE).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 79% | 89% | Median |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |