Opinion Poll by INSCOP for Institutul pentru Libertate și Democrație, 11–16 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 30.1% 28.3–32.1% 27.8–32.6% 27.4–33.1% 26.5–34.0%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 17.1% 15.6–18.7% 15.2–19.1% 14.9–19.5% 14.2–20.3%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 12.9–16.6% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 14.3% 12.9–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.2–16.6% 11.6–17.3%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 8.9% 7.8–10.1% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.4%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%
PRO România (S&D) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%
Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Partidul Umanist Social Liberal (S&D) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–13
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRO România (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Umanist Social Liberal (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 33% 98%  
12 44% 64% Median
13 19% 20%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 50% 97% Median
7 44% 46%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.4% 100%  
5 43% 98.6%  
6 52% 56% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 72% 95% Median
6 21% 23%  
7 1.0% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 60% 91% Median
4 30% 31%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 38%  
2 37% 37%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

PRO România (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forța Dreptei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Umanist Social Liberal (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Umanist Social Liberal (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) – PRO România (S&D) – Partidul Umanist Social Liberal (S&D) 0 12 0% 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–13
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–8 5–8
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) – PRO România (S&D) – Partidul Umanist Social Liberal (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 33% 98%  
12 44% 64% Median
13 19% 20%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 43% 99.6% Median
6 24% 57%  
7 29% 33%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.4% 100%  
5 43% 98.6%  
6 52% 56% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 60% 91% Median
4 30% 31%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations