Opinion Poll by INSCOP for Libertatea, 11–18 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 30.2% 28.4–32.0% 28.0–32.5% 27.5–33.0% 26.7–33.9%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 21.4% 19.8–23.0% 19.4–23.5% 19.0–23.9% 18.3–24.7%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 13.2% 11.9–14.6% 11.6–15.0% 11.3–15.3% 10.7–16.0%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 12.7% 11.5–14.1% 11.2–14.5% 10.9–14.8% 10.3–15.5%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–9.9% 6.2–10.4%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.8–5.0% 2.5–5.5%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.9–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.5–4.0%
Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.5%
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–13
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 8 8–9 8–9 7–9 7–10
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–2 0–2
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.6% 100%  
11 20% 99.4%  
12 63% 80% Median
13 16% 17%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 4% 100%  
8 62% 96% Median
9 33% 34%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 15% 100%  
5 74% 85% Median
6 10% 11%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 21% 100%  
5 76% 79% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 16% 100%  
3 80% 84% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 3%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forța Dreptei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 14% 100%  
5 73% 86% Median
6 12% 13%  
7 1.4% 2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 16% 100%  
3 80% 84% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations