Opinion Poll by BCS for Newsweek, 24–28 October 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 30.8% 29.1–32.6% 28.6–33.1% 28.2–33.5% 27.4–34.4%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 22.3% 20.8–24.0% 20.4–24.4% 20.0–24.9% 19.3–25.7%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 17.5% 16.1–19.0% 15.7–19.4% 15.4–19.8% 14.8–20.5%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 16.3% 15.0–17.8% 14.6–18.2% 14.3–18.6% 13.7–19.3%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 6.4% 5.6–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.2–8.0% 4.8–8.5%
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.6%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.1%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–13
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–7
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 5–7
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 2 2 1–2 0–3 0–3
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 18% 99.9%  
11 60% 82% Median
12 21% 22%  
13 1.0% 1.0%  
14 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 9% 100%  
8 67% 91% Median
9 23% 23%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 5% 100%  
6 66% 95% Median
7 29% 29%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 38% 99.9%  
6 59% 62% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 5% 96%  
2 88% 91% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Forța Dreptei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 10 0% 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–11
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 6 0% 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–7
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 10% 98%  
10 66% 87% Median
11 21% 21%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 5% 100%  
6 66% 95% Median
7 29% 29%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations