Opinion Poll by BCS for Newsweek, 24–28 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) | 0.0% | 30.8% | 29.1–32.6% | 28.6–33.1% | 28.2–33.5% | 27.4–34.4% |
| Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.3% | 20.8–24.0% | 20.4–24.4% | 20.0–24.9% | 19.3–25.7% |
| Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) | 0.0% | 17.5% | 16.1–19.0% | 15.7–19.4% | 15.4–19.8% | 14.8–20.5% |
| Uniunea Salvați România (RE) | 0.0% | 16.3% | 15.0–17.8% | 14.6–18.2% | 14.3–18.6% | 13.7–19.3% |
| Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.4% | 5.6–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 5.2–8.0% | 4.8–8.5% |
| Forța Dreptei (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% |
| Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.6–4.1% |
| Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 |
| Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Uniunea Salvați România (RE) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Forța Dreptei (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 18% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 60% | 82% | Median |
| 12 | 21% | 22% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 67% | 91% | Median |
| 9 | 23% | 23% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 66% | 95% | Median |
| 7 | 29% | 29% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Uniunea Salvați România (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 38% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 59% | 62% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 96% | |
| 2 | 88% | 91% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Forța Dreptei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 10% | 98% | |
| 10 | 66% | 87% | Median |
| 11 | 21% | 21% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: BCS
- Commissioner(s): Newsweek
- Fieldwork period: 24–28 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1150
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.11%