Opinion Poll by CURS, 30 October–5 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 32.0% 30.2–33.8% 29.7–34.4% 29.2–34.8% 28.4–35.7%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 20.0% 18.5–21.6% 18.0–22.1% 17.7–22.5% 17.0–23.3%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.3–16.9% 13.0–17.3% 12.4–18.0%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.6–14.8%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.1%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.4% 3.5–6.9%
Partidul Național Conservator Român (ECR) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 12 11–13 11–14 11–14 11–14
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 8 7–8 7–9 7–9 6–9
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 2 2 0–2 0–3 0–3
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Partidul Național Conservator Român (ECR) 0 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 11% 99.8%  
12 43% 89% Median
13 39% 46%  
14 7% 7%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 2% 100%  
7 41% 98%  
8 51% 57% Median
9 6% 6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.8% 100%  
5 44% 99.2%  
6 51% 55% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 60% 98% Median
5 37% 38%  
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 93%  
2 88% 93% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 49%  
2 47% 47%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Conservator Român (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Conservator Român (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 8%  
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Forța Dreptei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 9 0% 7–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) – Partidul Național Conservator Român (ECR) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 2 0% 2 0–2 0–3 0–3

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.3% 100%  
7 15% 99.7%  
8 33% 85% Median
9 31% 51%  
10 19% 20%  
11 0.9% 0.9%  
12 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) – Partidul Național Conservator Român (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.7% 100%  
5 39% 99.3%  
6 50% 60% Median
7 8% 11%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 93%  
2 88% 93% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations