Opinion Poll by INSCOP for Libertatea, 7–12 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) |
0.0% |
31.1% |
29.3–32.9% |
28.8–33.4% |
28.4–33.9% |
27.6–34.8% |
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) |
0.0% |
20.7% |
19.2–22.4% |
18.8–22.8% |
18.4–23.2% |
17.7–24.0% |
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) |
0.0% |
16.2% |
14.8–17.7% |
14.4–18.1% |
14.1–18.5% |
13.5–19.2% |
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) |
0.0% |
12.7% |
11.5–14.1% |
11.2–14.5% |
10.9–14.8% |
10.3–15.5% |
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) |
0.0% |
5.9% |
5.1–6.9% |
4.8–7.2% |
4.7–7.5% |
4.3–8.0% |
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) |
0.0% |
4.5% |
3.8–5.5% |
3.6–5.7% |
3.5–5.9% |
3.1–6.4% |
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) |
0.0% |
2.6% |
2.1–3.4% |
2.0–3.6% |
1.8–3.8% |
1.6–4.1% |
Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.7% |
0.8–1.9% |
0.7–2.0% |
0.6–2.3% |
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.9–1.7% |
0.8–1.9% |
0.7–2.0% |
0.6–2.3% |
Forța Dreptei (EPP) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.6–1.9% |
0.5–2.2% |
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.6–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
11 |
34% |
99.3% |
|
12 |
52% |
66% |
Median |
13 |
13% |
14% |
|
14 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
7 |
18% |
99.7% |
|
8 |
65% |
82% |
Median |
9 |
17% |
17% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
10% |
100% |
|
6 |
64% |
90% |
Median |
7 |
26% |
26% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Uniunea Salvați România (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
39% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
59% |
61% |
Median |
6 |
2% |
2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
5% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
2 |
92% |
95% |
Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
68% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
16% |
32% |
|
2 |
16% |
16% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Forța Dreptei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) |
0 |
7 |
0% |
6–8 |
6–8 |
5–8 |
5–9 |
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
0–2 |
0–2 |
0–3 |
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
4% |
100% |
|
6 |
40% |
96% |
Median |
7 |
43% |
56% |
|
8 |
12% |
13% |
|
9 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
5% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
2 |
92% |
95% |
Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSCOP
- Commissioner(s): Libertatea
- Fieldwork period: 7–12 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.57%