Opinion Poll by INSCOP for Libertatea, 7–12 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 31.1% 29.3–32.9% 28.8–33.4% 28.4–33.9% 27.6–34.8%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 20.7% 19.2–22.4% 18.8–22.8% 18.4–23.2% 17.7–24.0%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 16.2% 14.8–17.7% 14.4–18.1% 14.1–18.5% 13.5–19.2%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 12.7% 11.5–14.1% 11.2–14.5% 10.9–14.8% 10.3–15.5%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 5.9% 5.1–6.9% 4.8–7.2% 4.7–7.5% 4.3–8.0%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.5–5.9% 3.1–6.4%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.1%
Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.0% 0.6–2.3%
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 12 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–14
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 2 2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.6% 100%  
11 30% 99.4%  
12 42% 70% Median
13 26% 27%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.5% 100%  
7 23% 99.5%  
8 65% 77% Median
9 11% 11%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 12% 100%  
6 74% 88% Median
7 14% 15%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 37% 99.9%  
5 60% 62% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 91%  
2 88% 90% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 34%  
2 29% 29%  
3 0% 0%  

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forța Dreptei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 8 0% 7–9 7–9 7–9 7–9
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 6 0% 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 2 0% 2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.5% 100%  
7 23% 99.5%  
8 65% 77% Median
9 11% 11%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 7% 100%  
6 46% 93% Median
7 22% 47%  
8 24% 24%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 91%  
2 88% 90% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations