Opinion Poll by CIRA for Newsweek, 9–13 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 31.0% 29.2–32.8% 28.7–33.4% 28.2–33.9% 27.4–34.8%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.7–22.5% 17.0–23.4%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.2–19.1%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.8% 10.2–14.1% 9.6–14.8%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 12 11–13 11–14 11–14 10–14
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 8 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–10
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–8
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.5% 100%  
11 19% 99.5%  
12 48% 80% Median
13 27% 32%  
14 5% 5%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.2% 100%  
7 27% 98.8%  
8 56% 72% Median
9 16% 16%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 10% 100%  
6 63% 90% Median
7 25% 26%  
8 1.3% 1.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.9% 100%  
4 52% 99.1% Median
5 45% 47%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 64%  
2 63% 64% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 2% 52% Median
2 50% 50%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Forța Dreptei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 9 0% 8–10 7–10 7–11 7–11
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 2 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 5% 100%  
8 34% 95%  
9 32% 61% Median
10 26% 30%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 64%  
2 63% 64% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations