Opinion Poll by Atlas Intel for HotNews, 26–28 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 22.4% 21.3–23.6% 20.9–23.9% 20.7–24.2% 20.1–24.8%
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 21.4% 20.3–22.6% 20.0–22.9% 19.7–23.2% 19.2–23.8%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.7%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 13.4% 12.5–14.4% 12.3–14.7% 12.0–15.0% 11.6–15.4%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.3–6.9%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (*) 0.0% 4.6% 4.0–5.2% 3.9–5.4% 3.8–5.6% 3.5–5.9%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 4.6% 4.0–5.2% 3.9–5.4% 3.8–5.6% 3.5–5.9%
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.1% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.5%
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.5% 2.1–3.0% 2.0–3.1% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.5%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–1.9% 1.1–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 0.9–2.3%
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6%
Partidul Național Conservator Român (ECR) 0.0% 0.1% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.4%
Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.2% 0.0–0.3% 0.0–0.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–10
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 7 7 7–8 6–8 6–8
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 2 2 0–2 0–2 0–3
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (*) 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Național Conservator Român (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 20% 100%  
9 59% 80% Median
10 21% 21%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 100%  
8 60% 99.6% Median
9 37% 39%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 3% 100%  
7 89% 97% Median
8 8% 8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 69% 99.7% Median
6 31% 31%  
7 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 92%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 12%  
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 0% 57%  
2 57% 57% Median
3 0% 0%  

Forța Dreptei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Național Conservator Român (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Conservator Român (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Ecologist Român (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) – Partidul Național Conservator Român (ECR) 0 9 0% 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–10
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 7 0% 7–8 6–8 5–8 5–8
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 2 0% 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) – Partidul Național Conservator Român (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 20% 100%  
9 59% 80% Median
10 21% 21%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 100%  
6 5% 97%  
7 65% 92% Median
8 27% 27%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100% Last Result
1 0% 57%  
2 57% 57% Median
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations