Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 10–16 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 29.0% 27.5–30.7% 27.0–31.1% 26.7–31.5% 25.9–32.3%
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 22.0% 20.6–23.5% 20.2–23.9% 19.9–24.3% 19.2–25.0%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.3–14.9% 10.8–15.5%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.3–14.9% 10.8–15.5%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.6% 6.2–10.1%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.8%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.5%
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–13
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–2 0–2
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 12% 99.9%  
11 57% 88% Median
12 30% 31%  
13 1.3% 1.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 5% 100%  
8 49% 95% Median
9 43% 46%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 28% 100%  
5 69% 72% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 27% 100%  
5 70% 73% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 23% 100%  
3 76% 77% Median
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 5% 52% Median
2 47% 47%  
3 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 4%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forța Dreptei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–7
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) – Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0 4 0% 3–5 2–5 2–5 2–5

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 25% 100%  
5 68% 75% Median
6 5% 7%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) – Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 41% 93%  
4 19% 52% Median
5 33% 33%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations