Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 10–16 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 29.0% 27.5–30.7% 27.0–31.1% 26.7–31.5% 25.9–32.3%
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 22.0% 20.6–23.5% 20.2–23.9% 19.9–24.3% 19.2–25.0%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.3–14.9% 10.8–15.5%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.3–14.9% 10.8–15.5%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.6% 6.2–10.1%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (*) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.7–6.8%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.6%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.5%
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–13
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 8 8–9 7–9 7–9 7–10
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (*) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–2 0–2
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 12% 99.9%  
11 57% 88% Median
12 30% 31%  
13 1.3% 1.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 5% 100%  
8 49% 95% Median
9 43% 46%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 28% 100%  
5 69% 72% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 27% 100%  
5 70% 73% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 23% 100%  
3 76% 77% Median
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 5% 52% Median
2 47% 47%  
3 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 4%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forța Dreptei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–7
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 25% 100%  
5 68% 75% Median
6 5% 7%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 23% 100%  
3 76% 77% Median
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations