Opinion Poll by FlashData, 14–16 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 27.9% 27.2–28.7% 27.0–28.9% 26.9–29.0% 26.5–29.4%
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 21.2% 20.6–21.9% 20.4–22.1% 20.3–22.2% 20.0–22.5%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 19.0% 18.4–19.6% 18.2–19.8% 18.1–20.0% 17.8–20.3%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 12.3% 11.8–12.8% 11.6–13.0% 11.5–13.1% 11.3–13.4%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0.0% 6.7% 6.3–7.1% 6.2–7.2% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.5%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 5.6% 5.2–6.0% 5.1–6.1% 5.1–6.2% 4.9–6.4%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 3.1–3.7% 3.0–3.7% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–4.0%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 1.0–1.3% 0.9–1.4% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 1.0–1.3% 0.9–1.4% 0.9–1.4% 0.8–1.5%
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.7% 0.4–0.7% 0.4–0.8% 0.4–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 10 10–11 10–11 10–11 10–11
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 7 7 7 6–7 6–8
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–5
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 2 2 2 1–2 0–2
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 86% 100% Median
11 14% 14%  
12 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 15% 100%  
8 85% 85% Median
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 5% 100%  
7 94% 95% Median
8 0.9% 0.9%  
9 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 91% 100% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.9% 100% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100% Last Result
1 3% 99.1%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forța Dreptei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 4 0% 4 4–5 4–5 4–5
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) – Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 4 0% 4 4 3–4 2–4

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 91% 100% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) – Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.9% 100%  
3 3% 99.1%  
4 96% 96% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations