Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 23–28 May 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) |
0.0% |
32.0% |
30.4–33.7% |
29.9–34.2% |
29.5–34.6% |
28.7–35.4% |
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) |
0.0% |
20.0% |
18.6–21.5% |
18.2–21.9% |
17.9–22.3% |
17.3–23.0% |
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) |
0.0% |
16.0% |
14.8–17.4% |
14.4–17.8% |
14.1–18.1% |
13.5–18.8% |
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) |
0.0% |
15.0% |
13.8–16.3% |
13.4–16.7% |
13.2–17.1% |
12.6–17.7% |
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) |
0.0% |
5.0% |
4.3–5.9% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.3% |
3.6–6.8% |
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.0% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.8–5.6% |
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.0–4.5% |
Forța Dreptei (EPP) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–2.0% |
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–2.0% |
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
8% |
100% |
|
12 |
38% |
92% |
|
13 |
47% |
54% |
Median |
14 |
7% |
7% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
7 |
38% |
98.9% |
|
8 |
56% |
61% |
Median |
9 |
5% |
5% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
9% |
100% |
|
6 |
74% |
91% |
Median |
7 |
17% |
17% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Uniunea Salvați România (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
36% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
58% |
64% |
Median |
7 |
5% |
5% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
50% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0.3% |
50% |
Median |
2 |
50% |
50% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Forța Dreptei (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) |
0 |
7 |
0% |
6–8 |
6–9 |
6–9 |
5–9 |
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) – Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0–2 |
0–2 |
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
2% |
100% |
|
6 |
36% |
98% |
|
7 |
20% |
62% |
Median |
8 |
37% |
43% |
|
9 |
5% |
5% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) – Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI)

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Avangarde
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 23–28 May 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1300
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.84%