Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 9–18 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 41.0% 39.3–42.8% 38.8–43.3% 38.3–43.7% 37.5–44.6%
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.9% 16.9–21.2% 16.3–21.9%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.3–15.0% 10.8–15.6%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.6% 10.3–13.9% 9.8–14.5%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.4% 4.5–7.9%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 15 15–16 15–16 14–17 14–17
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 2 2 1–2 0–2 0–3
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 3% 100%  
15 53% 97% Median
16 40% 44%  
17 4% 4% Majority
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 14% 100%  
7 76% 86% Median
8 9% 10%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 44% 99.9%  
5 55% 56% Median
6 1.3% 1.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 82% 97% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 2% 96%  
2 93% 94% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forța Dreptei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) – Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.5% 100%  
5 4% 99.5%  
6 44% 96%  
7 50% 52% Median
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) – Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations