Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 10–17 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 35.0% 33.1–37.0% 32.6–37.5% 32.1–38.0% 31.2–39.0%
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 14 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 9 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–10
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 25% 98%  
14 53% 73% Median
15 18% 20%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0% Majority

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 4% 100%  
8 41% 96%  
9 44% 55% Median
10 11% 11%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 65% 93% Median
6 28% 29%  
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 10% 100%  
4 75% 90% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100% Last Result
1 0% 58%  
2 58% 58% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forța Dreptei (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Dreptate și Respect în Europa Pentru Toți (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP) 0 7 0% 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–8
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) – Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) – Forța Dreptei (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.1% 100%  
5 24% 98.9%  
6 21% 75%  
7 41% 54% Median
8 12% 12%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) – Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations