Opinion Poll by ARP, 1–10 April 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 35.9% 33.5–38.3% 32.8–39.0% 32.3–39.6% 31.1–40.8%
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 17.2% 15.4–19.2% 14.9–19.8% 14.4–20.3% 13.6–21.3%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 14.2% 12.6–16.1% 12.1–16.7% 11.7–17.1% 11.0–18.1%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 11.1% 9.7–12.9% 9.3–13.4% 8.9–13.8% 8.3–14.7%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 6.0% 5.0–7.4% 4.7–7.8% 4.4–8.1% 4.0–8.9%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 5.6% 4.6–6.9% 4.3–7.3% 4.0–7.6% 3.6–8.3%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–4.9% 1.8–5.5%
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.2% 1.4–4.7%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–3.0% 1.1–3.2% 0.9–3.7%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.7–2.6% 0.6–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 14 13–15 13–16 12–16 12–16
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 6 6–7 5–8 5–8 5–8
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 2 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–3
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0–2
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 5% 99.9%  
13 27% 95%  
14 45% 68% Median
15 18% 23%  
16 5% 5%  
17 0.3% 0.3% Majority
18 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 7% 100%  
6 55% 93% Median
7 31% 38%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 8% 100%  
5 58% 92% Median
6 32% 34%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 15% 99.9%  
4 69% 85% Median
5 16% 16%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 88%  
2 75% 87% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 27% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 73%  
2 70% 73% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 1.4%  
2 1.3% 1.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) – Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI) 0 2 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) – Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 88%  
2 75% 88% Median
3 12% 13%  
4 0.7% 0.8%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations