Opinion Poll by ARP, 30 June–3 July 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 36.4% 34.9–37.8% 34.5–38.3% 34.1–38.6% 33.5–39.4%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 22.4% 21.1–23.7% 20.8–24.1% 20.5–24.4% 19.9–25.0%
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 17.9% 16.7–19.1% 16.4–19.4% 16.2–19.7% 15.6–20.3%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 10.5% 9.6–11.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.1–12.0% 8.7–12.5%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.1–5.8% 4.0–6.0% 3.7–6.4%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 2.9% 2.4–3.5% 2.3–3.6% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1%
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.9% 1.6–2.4% 1.4–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.2–2.9%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (ECR) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (EPP) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–2.0% 0.7–2.2%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 14 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–15
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 7–9
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–7
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.8% 100%  
13 23% 99.2%  
14 33% 76% Median
15 43% 43%  
16 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 100%  
8 78% 98% Median
9 20% 20%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 35% 99.8%  
7 64% 65% Median
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 53% 100% Median
4 46% 47%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 28%  
2 25% 25%  
3 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Mișcarea Populară (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations