Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 12–22 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0.0% 36.0% 34.1–38.0% 33.5–38.5% 33.1–39.0% 32.2–39.9%
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0.0% 23.0% 21.4–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.8–26.6%
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0.0% 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.1%
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (ECR) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) 0 14 13–15 13–15 13–16 13–16
Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) 0 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 7–11
Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Uniunea Salvați România (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) 0 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.4% 100%  
13 22% 99.6%  
14 39% 77% Median
15 34% 39%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0.2% 0.2% Majority
18 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.7% 100%  
8 24% 99.3%  
9 56% 75% Median
10 18% 19%  
11 0.8% 0.8%  
12 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 12% 99.9%  
6 71% 88% Median
7 16% 17%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Uniunea Salvați România (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Salvați România (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 23% 100%  
3 73% 77% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result
1 2% 50% Median
2 48% 48%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Oamenilor Tineri (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sănătate, Educație, Natură, Sustenabilitate (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reînnoim Proiectul European al României (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Mișcarea Populară (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul S.O.S. România (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Partidul S.O.S. România (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations