Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 10–20 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 35.0% 33.0–37.1% 32.4–37.7% 31.9–38.2% 31.0–39.2%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 26.0% 24.2–27.9% 23.7–28.5% 23.2–29.0% 22.4–29.9%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 15.0% 13.6–16.6% 13.2–17.1% 12.8–17.5% 12.1–18.3%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 14.0% 12.6–15.6% 12.2–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.2–17.2%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.2%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
PRO România 4.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 115 108–122 107–124 105–125 102–128
Partidul Național Liberal 93 85 79–92 78–93 76–95 73–98
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 49 44–54 43–56 42–57 40–60
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 46 41–51 40–52 39–54 37–56
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 16 13–19 13–20 12–21 11–23
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.6%  
103 0.4% 99.3%  
104 0.7% 98.9%  
105 1.3% 98%  
106 2% 97%  
107 3% 95%  
108 3% 93%  
109 4% 90%  
110 5% 85% Last Result
111 5% 81%  
112 8% 75%  
113 5% 68%  
114 8% 62%  
115 8% 54% Median
116 8% 46%  
117 8% 39%  
118 6% 30%  
119 6% 25%  
120 5% 19%  
121 4% 14%  
122 3% 10%  
123 2% 7%  
124 2% 5%  
125 1.1% 3%  
126 0.8% 2%  
127 0.6% 1.4%  
128 0.4% 0.9%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 0.6% 99.0%  
76 1.4% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 95%  
79 3% 93%  
80 5% 90%  
81 5% 85%  
82 8% 79%  
83 6% 72%  
84 8% 66%  
85 8% 58% Median
86 9% 50%  
87 8% 41%  
88 8% 33%  
89 6% 25%  
90 5% 20%  
91 4% 14%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 7% Last Result
94 2% 5%  
95 1.1% 3%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.2%  
98 0.3% 0.6%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 0.5% 99.6%  
41 1.0% 99.1%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 4% 93%  
45 6% 89%  
46 7% 83%  
47 8% 75%  
48 9% 67%  
49 10% 58% Median
50 10% 48%  
51 9% 38%  
52 8% 28%  
53 6% 20%  
54 4% 14%  
55 4% 10% Last Result
56 2% 6%  
57 1.4% 3%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.1%  
60 0.3% 0.6%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 0.6% 99.5%  
38 1.1% 99.0%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 96%  
41 4% 93%  
42 6% 89%  
43 7% 82%  
44 9% 75%  
45 12% 66%  
46 12% 54% Median
47 9% 42%  
48 9% 33%  
49 6% 24%  
50 6% 18%  
51 4% 12%  
52 3% 8%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.3% 3%  
55 0.7% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.9%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.3% 99.9%  
11 1.1% 99.7%  
12 3% 98.6%  
13 7% 95%  
14 11% 88%  
15 16% 77%  
16 17% 61% Median
17 15% 44%  
18 11% 29%  
19 8% 18%  
20 5% 10%  
21 2% 5% Last Result
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.5% 0.9%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 151 0.6% 144–158 142–160 140–161 137–165
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 151 0.6% 144–158 142–160 140–161 137–165
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 135 0% 128–142 126–144 124–145 121–148
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 135 0% 128–142 126–144 124–145 121–148
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 115 0% 108–122 107–124 105–125 102–128
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 102 0% 95–108 93–110 92–112 89–115
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 102 0% 95–108 93–110 92–112 89–115
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 85 0% 79–92 78–93 76–95 73–98
Partidul Național Liberal 93 85 0% 79–92 78–93 76–95 73–98
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 49 0% 44–54 43–56 42–57 40–60

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.3% 99.7%  
138 0.4% 99.4%  
139 0.5% 99.0%  
140 1.2% 98%  
141 1.0% 97%  
142 2% 96%  
143 2% 94%  
144 3% 92%  
145 4% 89%  
146 5% 85%  
147 6% 80%  
148 6% 74%  
149 7% 68%  
150 6% 61% Median
151 8% 55%  
152 9% 47%  
153 5% 38%  
154 7% 33%  
155 6% 26%  
156 4% 20%  
157 4% 15%  
158 3% 12%  
159 3% 8%  
160 2% 6%  
161 1.5% 4%  
162 0.8% 2%  
163 0.5% 1.5%  
164 0.4% 1.0%  
165 0.3% 0.6% Majority
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1% Last Result
170 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.8%  
137 0.3% 99.7%  
138 0.4% 99.4%  
139 0.5% 99.0%  
140 1.2% 98%  
141 1.0% 97%  
142 2% 96%  
143 2% 94%  
144 3% 92%  
145 4% 89%  
146 5% 85%  
147 6% 80%  
148 6% 74%  
149 7% 68%  
150 6% 61% Median
151 8% 55%  
152 9% 47%  
153 5% 38%  
154 7% 33%  
155 6% 26%  
156 4% 20%  
157 4% 15%  
158 3% 12%  
159 3% 8%  
160 2% 6%  
161 1.5% 4%  
162 0.8% 2%  
163 0.5% 1.5%  
164 0.4% 1.0%  
165 0.3% 0.6% Majority
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1% Last Result
170 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.3% 99.7%  
122 0.5% 99.4%  
123 0.6% 98.9%  
124 1.2% 98%  
125 1.5% 97%  
126 2% 96%  
127 2% 94%  
128 4% 92%  
129 4% 88%  
130 5% 83%  
131 6% 79%  
132 6% 73%  
133 8% 67%  
134 9% 59% Median
135 8% 51%  
136 6% 43%  
137 6% 37%  
138 6% 31%  
139 6% 24%  
140 4% 18%  
141 4% 14%  
142 3% 10%  
143 2% 7%  
144 2% 5%  
145 0.9% 3%  
146 0.8% 2%  
147 0.6% 1.4%  
148 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
149 0.2% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0.1% 100%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.3% 99.7%  
122 0.5% 99.4%  
123 0.6% 98.9%  
124 1.2% 98%  
125 1.5% 97%  
126 2% 96%  
127 2% 94%  
128 4% 92%  
129 4% 88%  
130 5% 83%  
131 6% 79%  
132 6% 73%  
133 8% 67%  
134 9% 59% Median
135 8% 51%  
136 6% 43%  
137 6% 37%  
138 6% 31%  
139 6% 24%  
140 4% 18%  
141 4% 14%  
142 3% 10%  
143 2% 7%  
144 2% 5%  
145 0.9% 3%  
146 0.8% 2%  
147 0.6% 1.4%  
148 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
149 0.2% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.6%  
103 0.4% 99.3%  
104 0.7% 98.9%  
105 1.3% 98%  
106 2% 97%  
107 3% 95%  
108 3% 93%  
109 4% 90%  
110 5% 85% Last Result
111 5% 81%  
112 8% 75%  
113 5% 68%  
114 8% 62%  
115 8% 54% Median
116 8% 46%  
117 8% 39%  
118 6% 30%  
119 6% 25%  
120 5% 19%  
121 4% 14%  
122 3% 10%  
123 2% 7%  
124 2% 5%  
125 1.1% 3%  
126 0.8% 2%  
127 0.6% 1.4%  
128 0.4% 0.9%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.7%  
90 0.5% 99.4%  
91 0.8% 98.9%  
92 1.5% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 2% 95%  
95 3% 93%  
96 4% 90%  
97 6% 86%  
98 6% 79%  
99 7% 74%  
100 9% 66%  
101 6% 58% Median
102 7% 52%  
103 10% 45%  
104 7% 36%  
105 6% 28%  
106 4% 22%  
107 6% 18%  
108 3% 12%  
109 3% 9%  
110 2% 6%  
111 1.3% 4%  
112 1.1% 3%  
113 0.6% 2%  
114 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
115 0.3% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.7%  
90 0.5% 99.4%  
91 0.8% 98.9%  
92 1.5% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 2% 95%  
95 3% 93%  
96 4% 90%  
97 6% 86%  
98 6% 79%  
99 7% 74%  
100 9% 66%  
101 6% 58% Median
102 7% 52%  
103 10% 45%  
104 7% 36%  
105 6% 28%  
106 4% 22%  
107 6% 18%  
108 3% 12%  
109 3% 9%  
110 2% 6%  
111 1.3% 4%  
112 1.1% 3%  
113 0.6% 2%  
114 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
115 0.3% 0.6%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 0.6% 99.0%  
76 1.4% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 95%  
79 3% 93%  
80 5% 90%  
81 5% 85%  
82 8% 79%  
83 6% 72%  
84 8% 66%  
85 8% 58% Median
86 9% 50%  
87 8% 41%  
88 8% 33%  
89 6% 25%  
90 5% 20%  
91 4% 14%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 7% Last Result
94 2% 5%  
95 1.1% 3%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.2%  
98 0.3% 0.6%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 0.6% 99.0%  
76 1.4% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 95%  
79 3% 93%  
80 5% 90%  
81 5% 85%  
82 8% 79%  
83 6% 72%  
84 8% 66%  
85 8% 58% Median
86 9% 50%  
87 8% 41%  
88 8% 33%  
89 6% 25%  
90 5% 20%  
91 4% 14%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 7% Last Result
94 2% 5%  
95 1.1% 3%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.2%  
98 0.3% 0.6%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 0.5% 99.6%  
41 1.0% 99.1%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 4% 93%  
45 6% 89%  
46 7% 83%  
47 8% 75%  
48 9% 67%  
49 10% 58% Median
50 10% 48%  
51 9% 38%  
52 8% 28%  
53 6% 20%  
54 4% 14%  
55 4% 10% Last Result
56 2% 6%  
57 1.4% 3%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.1%  
60 0.3% 0.6%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations