Partidul Național Liberal

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 25.2% (General Election of 6 December 2020)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 18.8% 16.0–21.2% 15.4–21.7% 15.0–22.2% 14.2–23.1%
26–30 December 2023 CURS 19.0% 17.4–20.8% 16.9–21.3% 16.5–21.8% 15.8–22.7%
16–28 December 2023 ARA Public Opinion 16.6% 15.2–18.3% 14.8–18.7% 14.4–19.1% 13.7–19.9%
20–27 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 20.1% 18.8–21.9% 18.3–22.3% 18.0–22.8% 17.3–23.5%
23 October–2 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 18.4% 16.9–19.9% 16.5–20.4% 16.2–20.8% 15.5–21.5%
15–22 September 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 20.4% 19.1–21.7% 18.8–22.1% 18.4–22.5% 17.9–23.1%
12–22 September 2023 CURS 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.2% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
28–31 August 2023 INSOMAR 15.0% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.0% 13.0–17.4% 12.4–18.1%
8–20 July 2023 CURS 18.0% 16.6–19.6% 16.2–20.1% 15.9–20.5% 15.2–21.3%
1–30 June 2023 INSCOP 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
1 May–30 June 2023 Geeks for Democracy 19.0% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.4% 16.4–21.8% 15.6–22.8%
19–27 May 2023 CURS 20.0% 18.5–21.6% 18.0–22.1% 17.7–22.5% 17.0–23.3%
12–17 May 2023 CURS 20.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–20 March 2023 CURS 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.1% 18.7–23.5% 18.0–24.3%
5–19 February 2023 INSCOP 22.3% 21.3–23.3% 21.1–23.6% 20.8–23.8% 20.4–24.3%
1–13 February 2023 INSCOP 21.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–30 January 2023 Atlas Intel 17.9% 16.8–19.1% 16.5–19.4% 16.3–19.6% 15.8–20.2%
10–20 January 2023 CURS 22.0% 20.5–23.7% 20.0–24.2% 19.6–24.6% 18.9–25.4%
1–31 December 2022 INSCOP 20.2% 18.7–21.9% 18.2–22.3% 17.9–22.7% 17.2–23.5%
8–22 November 2022 CURS 24.0% 22.4–25.7% 21.9–26.2% 21.5–26.7% 20.8–27.5%
1–31 October 2022 Sociopol 18.9% 17.3–20.7% 16.8–21.2% 16.4–21.6% 15.7–22.5%
8–22 September 2022 CURS 21.8% 20.2–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.4% 18.6–25.3%
1–31 August 2022 Sociopol 15.0% 13.5–16.7% 13.1–17.1% 12.8–17.5% 12.1–18.4%
5–17 August 2022 CURS 23.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–31 July 2022 Avangarde 22.8% 21.3–24.9% 20.8–25.4% 20.4–25.9% 19.6–26.8%
22–30 June 2022 Avangarde 19.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–26 May 2022 CURS 22.3% 21.3–23.4% 21.0–23.7% 20.8–23.9% 20.3–24.4%
12–20 April 2022 Avangarde 18.8% 17.2–20.5% 16.7–21.0% 16.4–21.4% 15.6–22.3%
28 March–11 April 2022 CURS 23.0% 22.0–24.1% 21.7–24.4% 21.5–24.6% 21.0–25.1%
22–29 March 2022 Avangarde 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–11 March 2022 CURS 20.0% 18.5–21.5% 18.1–22.0% 17.8–22.4% 17.1–23.1%
2–7 March 2022 INSCOP 19.9% 18.4–21.5% 18.0–22.0% 17.6–22.4% 16.9–23.2%
9–19 February 2022 Sociopol 16.0% 14.8–17.8% 14.4–18.2% 14.0–18.6% 13.4–19.4%
20–31 January 2022 Avangarde 15.9% 14.5–17.6% 14.1–18.1% 13.7–18.5% 13.0–19.3%
22–29 January 2022 CURS 16.6% 15.1–18.1% 14.7–18.6% 14.4–19.0% 13.7–19.8%
10–18 January 2022 INSCOP 16.8% 15.4–18.3% 15.1–18.7% 14.7–19.1% 14.1–19.8%
15–23 December 2021 Avangarde 18.0% 16.4–19.7% 16.0–20.2% 15.6–20.6% 14.9–21.5%
17–22 December 2021 Sociopol 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.1%
13–17 December 2021 CURS 19.0% 17.5–20.6% 17.1–21.0% 16.8–21.4% 16.1–22.2%
16–24 November 2021 Avangarde 17.0% 15.5–18.7% 15.1–19.2% 14.7–19.6% 14.0–20.4%
17–22 November 2021 CURS 18.0% 16.6–19.6% 16.2–20.0% 15.8–20.4% 15.2–21.2%
25–30 October 2021 CURS 19.0% 17.5–20.6% 17.1–21.0% 16.8–21.4% 16.1–22.2%
17–26 October 2021 Avangarde 17.0% 15.5–18.7% 15.0–19.2% 14.7–19.6% 14.0–20.4%
15–25 October 2021 INSCOP 21.9% 20.4–23.6% 19.9–24.1% 19.6–24.5% 18.8–25.3%
12–20 October 2021 CURS 21.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–17 October 2021 INSCOP 19.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–15 October 2021 Sociopol 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.1% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
26–29 September 2021 Gazeta Civică 16.8% 15.5–18.3% 15.1–18.7% 14.8–19.0% 14.2–19.8%
28 September 2021 INSOMAR 25.8% 24.1–27.6% 23.7–28.2% 23.2–28.6% 22.5–29.5%
15–27 September 2021 INSCOP 21.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–21 September 2021 Avangarde 20.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–10 September 2021 CURS 19.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–5 September 2021 CURS 20.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–24 August 2021 Avangarde 21.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–20 August 2021 CURS 20.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–19 August 2021 IRES 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
1–15 July 2021 Sociopol 26.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–15 July 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 15.1% 13.8–16.7% 13.4–17.1% 13.1–17.5% 12.5–18.2%
11–18 June 2021 CURS 22.0% 20.5–23.7% 20.0–24.2% 19.6–24.6% 18.9–25.4%
1–15 June 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 25.5% 23.7–27.2% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.2% 22.1–29.1%
1–15 June 2021 INSCOP 26.6% 25.0–28.4% 24.5–28.9% 24.1–29.3% 23.3–30.2%
1–31 May 2021 Sociopol 22.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 May 2021 IRES 26.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 May 2021 Avangarde 22.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 May 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 23.4% 21.8–25.2% 21.3–25.7% 20.9–26.1% 20.1–26.9%
14–17 April 2021 CURS 21.0% 19.4–22.6% 19.0–23.1% 18.7–23.5% 18.0–24.3%
30 March–11 April 2021 BCS 22.3% 20.9–23.8% 20.6–24.2% 20.2–24.6% 19.6–25.3%
12–28 March 2021 Sociopol 26.0% 24.2–28.0% 23.6–28.5% 23.2–29.0% 22.3–30.0%
1–12 March 2021 INSCOP 26.3% 24.6–28.0% 24.2–28.5% 23.7–29.0% 23.0–29.8%
22–26 February 2021 CURS 25.0% 23.4–26.7% 22.9–27.2% 22.5–27.6% 21.8–28.5%
9–11 February 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 27.0% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.3% 24.4–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
15–17 January 2021 Avangarde 23.9% 22.0–26.1% 21.4–26.7% 20.9–27.2% 20.0–28.3%
11–15 January 2021 CURS 26.0% 24.4–27.8% 23.9–28.2% 23.5–28.7% 22.7–29.5%
17–21 December 2020 CURS 26.0% 24.4–27.8% 23.9–28.2% 23.5–28.7% 22.7–29.5%
10–20 December 2020 Avangarde 26.0% 24.2–27.9% 23.7–28.5% 23.2–29.0% 22.4–29.9%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partidul Național Liberal.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11.5–12.5% 0% 100%  
12.5–13.5% 0.1% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 1.0% 99.9%  
14.5–15.5% 5% 98.9%  
15.5–16.5% 11% 94%  
16.5–17.5% 14% 84%  
17.5–18.5% 15% 70%  
18.5–19.5% 18% 55% Median
19.5–20.5% 18% 37%  
20.5–21.5% 12% 19%  
21.5–22.5% 5% 6%  
22.5–23.5% 1.2% 1.4%  
23.5–24.5% 0.2% 0.2%  
24.5–25.5% 0% 0% Last Result

Seats

Last result: 93 seats (General Election of 6 December 2020)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 69 61–74 59–77 57–79 54–85
26–30 December 2023 CURS 69 63–76 61–79 59–83 55–86
16–28 December 2023 ARA Public Opinion 66 59–72 57–74 56–76 53–79
20–27 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 71 65–76 62–78 61–79 58–82
23 October–2 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 68 61–73 57–75 57–76 56–78
15–22 September 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 73 68–78 67–79 66–80 64–83
12–22 September 2023 CURS 71 65–77 64–79 62–80 59–84
28–31 August 2023 INSOMAR 66 58–71 57–73 54–75 52–79
8–20 July 2023 CURS 66 60–72 59–73 57–74 55–77
1–30 June 2023 INSCOP 71 65–77 63–78 62–80 59–83
1 May–30 June 2023 Geeks for Democracy 71 65–77 63–79 61–81 58–84
19–27 May 2023 CURS 72 66–78 63–80 62–81 60–84
12–17 May 2023 CURS          
10–20 March 2023 CURS 76 69–84 68–87 66–89 63–94
5–19 February 2023 INSCOP 79 76–83 75–84 74–84 72–86
1–13 February 2023 INSCOP          
27–30 January 2023 Atlas Intel 63 59–67 58–69 57–69 55–71
10–20 January 2023 CURS 84 75–93 73–95 72–96 68–101
1–31 December 2022 INSCOP 78 72–84 71–86 69–87 66–91
8–22 November 2022 CURS 89 82–97 81–100 79–103 76–108
1–31 October 2022 Sociopol 71 65–75 62–79 61–83 58–85
8–22 September 2022 CURS 84 76–93 74–95 72–98 69–101
1–31 August 2022 Sociopol 53 47–58 46–60 45–61 42–64
5–17 August 2022 CURS          
22–31 July 2022 Avangarde 85 80–95 80–95 78–97 72–100
22–30 June 2022 Avangarde          
16–26 May 2022 CURS 81 79–87 76–91 76–91 75–95
12–20 April 2022 Avangarde 69 64–76 62–77 60–79 58–82
28 March–11 April 2022 CURS 82 76–86 75–87 75–88 72–90
22–29 March 2022 Avangarde          
2–11 March 2022 CURS 78 69–83 68–86 68–89 65–94
2–7 March 2022 INSCOP 76 70–82 69–83 67–85 65–88
9–19 February 2022 Sociopol 53 48–58 48–61 46–62 45–66
20–31 January 2022 Avangarde 61 56–67 54–69 53–71 50–74
22–29 January 2022 CURS 64 57–73 56–74 55–74 53–78
10–18 January 2022 INSCOP 58 54–63 53–64 51–66 49–69
15–23 December 2021 Avangarde 64 57–68 55–70 54–71 51–75
17–22 December 2021 Sociopol 53 48–59 46–60 45–62 43–63
13–17 December 2021 CURS 67 60–73 59–74 58–76 55–79
16–24 November 2021 Avangarde 60 54–66 52–67 51–69 48–72
17–22 November 2021 CURS 65 59–71 58–72 56–74 54–76
25–30 October 2021 CURS 66 61–72 59–74 58–76 55–79
17–26 October 2021 Avangarde 59 54–65 52–67 51–68 48–70
15–25 October 2021 INSCOP 78 71–82 70–84 69–85 66–88
12–20 October 2021 CURS          
12–17 October 2021 INSCOP          
11–15 October 2021 Sociopol 68 62–73 61–75 60–76 57–79
26–29 September 2021 Gazeta Civică 57 52–63 51–65 49–66 47–69
28 September 2021 INSOMAR 86 81–91 79–93 78–94 75–98
15–27 September 2021 INSCOP          
14–21 September 2021 Avangarde          
8–10 September 2021 CURS          
3–5 September 2021 CURS          
20–24 August 2021 Avangarde          
12–20 August 2021 CURS          
15–19 August 2021 IRES 88 83–95 81–97 81–98 78–101
1–15 July 2021 Sociopol          
1–15 July 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 56 51–61 49–63 48–64 46–67
11–18 June 2021 CURS 77 71–84 69–86 68–88 65–91
1–15 June 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 92 86–97 83–98 82–100 79–103
1–15 June 2021 INSCOP 98 91–104 89–106 88–108 84–111
1–31 May 2021 Sociopol          
1–31 May 2021 IRES          
1–31 May 2021 Avangarde          
7 May 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 86 77–94 76–96 76–97 72–100
14–17 April 2021 CURS 75 69–78 67–81 66–84 62–86
30 March–11 April 2021 BCS 79 74–84 72–86 71–87 68–89
12–28 March 2021 Sociopol 87 80–93 79–94 77–95 74–100
1–12 March 2021 INSCOP 92 86–99 84–102 82–104 80–106
22–26 February 2021 CURS 88 83–94 82–97 80–100 76–101
9–11 February 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 93 85–100 83–102 81–102 79–105
15–17 January 2021 Avangarde 80 74–87 72–89 70–91 67–94
11–15 January 2021 CURS 87 82–93 80–95 79–96 76–99
17–21 December 2020 CURS 86 81–92 79–94 78–95 75–98
10–20 December 2020 Avangarde 85 79–92 78–93 76–95 73–98

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partidul Național Liberal.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 0.2% 99.4%  
56 0.3% 99.2%  
57 2% 98.8%  
58 0.8% 97%  
59 2% 96%  
60 1.4% 94%  
61 3% 93%  
62 3% 90%  
63 3% 87%  
64 5% 84%  
65 3% 79%  
66 6% 75%  
67 9% 69%  
68 9% 60%  
69 5% 51% Median
70 7% 46%  
71 9% 40%  
72 9% 30%  
73 8% 21%  
74 3% 13%  
75 1.4% 10%  
76 2% 8%  
77 2% 7%  
78 1.4% 5%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.2% 2%  
82 0.5% 1.5%  
83 0.1% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.9%  
85 0.5% 0.7%  
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result