Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 18.0% (General Election of 1 December 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 38.1% 33.9–41.6% 33.0–42.3% 32.4–42.8% 31.3–43.8%
6–10 October 2025 INSCOP
informat.ro		 40.0% 38.1–41.9% 37.6–42.5% 37.1–42.9% 36.2–43.9%
5–19 September 2025 CURS 34.0% 32.2–35.9% 31.7–36.4% 31.3–36.9% 30.4–37.8%
9–18 September 2025 Avangarde 41.0% 39.3–42.8% 38.8–43.3% 38.3–43.7% 37.5–44.6%
1–9 September 2025 INSCOP
informat.ro		 40.8% 38.9–42.7% 38.4–43.3% 37.9–43.7% 37.0–44.7%
21–23 July 2025 Sociopol
RomâniaTV		 38.0% 36.1–40.0% 35.5–40.6% 35.1–41.1% 34.1–42.0%
15–23 July 2025 INSOMAR 36.5% 34.6–38.4% 34.0–39.0% 33.5–39.5% 32.6–40.4%
10–12 July 2025 FlashData 38.0% 37.3–38.7% 37.1–38.9% 36.9–39.1% 36.6–39.5%
4–10 July 2025 CURS 38.0% 36.1–39.9% 35.5–40.4% 35.1–40.9% 34.2–41.9%
20–26 June 2025 INSCOP
informat.ro		 40.4% 38.7–42.4% 38.2–42.9% 37.7–43.4% 36.8–44.3%
26–30 May 2025 INSCOP 38.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–30 May 2025 CURS 35.0% 33.3–36.7% 32.8–37.2% 32.4–37.6% 31.6–38.5%
26–28 May 2025 Sociopol
RomâniaTV		 36.0% 34.0–38.0% 33.5–38.5% 33.0–39.0% 32.1–39.9%
23–28 May 2025 Avangarde 32.0% 30.4–33.7% 29.9–34.2% 29.5–34.6% 28.7–35.4%
24–26 April 2025 FlashData 26.0% 25.3–26.7% 25.2–26.9% 25.0–27.0% 24.7–27.3%
3–5 April 2025 FlashData 27.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–28 March 2025 Verifield 31.7% 30.0–33.6% 29.5–34.1% 29.0–34.6% 28.2–35.4%
14–16 February 2025 FlashData 27.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–25 January 2025 CURS 22.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–16 January 2025 Avangarde 29.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17.5–18.5% 0% 100% Last Result
18.5–19.5% 0% 100%  
19.5–20.5% 0% 100%  
20.5–21.5% 0% 100%  
21.5–22.5% 0% 100%  
22.5–23.5% 0% 100%  
23.5–24.5% 0% 100%  
24.5–25.5% 0% 100%  
25.5–26.5% 0% 100%  
26.5–27.5% 0% 100%  
27.5–28.5% 0% 100%  
28.5–29.5% 0% 100%  
29.5–30.5% 0.1% 100%  
30.5–31.5% 0.7% 99.9%  
31.5–32.5% 2% 99.2%  
32.5–33.5% 5% 97%  
33.5–34.5% 7% 92%  
34.5–35.5% 8% 85%  
35.5–36.5% 10% 77%  
36.5–37.5% 11% 67%  
37.5–38.5% 11% 56% Median
38.5–39.5% 12% 45%  
39.5–40.5% 12% 33%  
40.5–41.5% 11% 21%  
41.5–42.5% 7% 10%  
42.5–43.5% 3% 3%  
43.5–44.5% 0.7% 0.8%  
44.5–45.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
45.5–46.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 63 seats (General Election of 1 December 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 134 114–144 110–146 108–148 103–151
6–10 October 2025 INSCOP
informat.ro		 140 134–146 132–149 130–150 127–153
5–19 September 2025 CURS 114 107–122 105–124 103–126 101–129
9–18 September 2025 Avangarde 141 136–147 134–148 132–150 129–153
1–9 September 2025 INSCOP
informat.ro		 141 135–147 133–149 131–150 128–153
21–23 July 2025 Sociopol
RomâniaTV		 130 123–136 123–137 121–140 118–143
15–23 July 2025 INSOMAR 131 126–139 123–143 122–144 119–145
10–12 July 2025 FlashData 129 126–131 126–132 125–132 124–134
4–10 July 2025 CURS 131 124–138 122–140 120–141 116–145
20–26 June 2025 INSCOP
informat.ro		 140 133–147 131–149 129–150 125–153
26–30 May 2025 INSCOP          
26–30 May 2025 CURS 115 109–123 107–124 106–126 103–129
26–28 May 2025 Sociopol
RomâniaTV		 132 125–139 123–140 122–142 118–146
23–28 May 2025 Avangarde 114 107–119 106–121 105–123 101–126
24–26 April 2025 FlashData 111 109–114 108–115 107–115 106–117
3–5 April 2025 FlashData          
24–28 March 2025 Verifield 106 101–112 99–115 97–115 95–119
14–16 February 2025 FlashData          
21–25 January 2025 CURS          
10–16 January 2025 Avangarde          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.2% 99.5%  
105 0.5% 99.3%  
106 0.4% 98.8%  
107 0.7% 98%  
108 0.7% 98%  
109 1.0% 97%  
110 1.1% 96%  
111 1.1% 95%  
112 1.2% 94%  
113 1.4% 92%  
114 2% 91%  
115 1.2% 90%  
116 1.3% 88%  
117 1.2% 87%  
118 1.3% 86%  
119 1.0% 85%  
120 1.0% 84%  
121 1.0% 82%  
122 1.3% 81%  
123 3% 80%  
124 1.4% 77%  
125 2% 76%  
126 2% 74%  
127 2% 71%  
128 4% 69%  
129 3% 65%  
130 3% 62%  
131 2% 59%  
132 3% 57%  
133 3% 54%  
134 4% 51% Median
135 3% 46%  
136 6% 44%  
137 3% 37%  
138 4% 34%  
139 5% 30%  
140 3% 25%  
141 3% 22%  
142 4% 19%  
143 4% 14%  
144 2% 11%  
145 2% 8%  
146 2% 7%  
147 2% 5%  
148 0.8% 3%  
149 0.9% 2%  
150 0.4% 1.2%  
151 0.3% 0.8%  
152 0.3% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%