Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 9.1% (General Election of 6 December 2020)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 18.5% 9.4–20.8% 9.0–21.3% 8.6–21.8% 8.0–22.7%
26–30 December 2023 CURS 19.0% 17.4–20.8% 16.9–21.3% 16.5–21.8% 15.8–22.7%
16–28 December 2023 ARA Public Opinion 9.9% 8.7–11.2% 8.4–11.6% 8.1–11.9% 7.6–12.6%
20–27 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 19.5% 18.2–21.3% 17.8–21.8% 17.5–22.2% 16.8–23.0%
23 October–2 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 20.2% 18.7–21.8% 18.3–22.3% 17.9–22.7% 17.2–23.5%
15–22 September 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 22.4% 21.1–23.8% 20.7–24.2% 20.4–24.5% 19.8–25.2%
12–22 September 2023 CURS 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
28–31 August 2023 INSOMAR 27.0% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.3% 24.4–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
8–20 July 2023 CURS 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.1–22.1% 17.7–22.5% 17.0–23.4%
1–30 June 2023 INSCOP 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.1–22.3% 17.7–22.7% 17.0–23.5%
1 May–30 June 2023 Geeks for Democracy 18.0% 16.3–19.8% 15.9–20.3% 15.5–20.8% 14.7–21.7%
19–27 May 2023 CURS 17.0% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–19.0% 14.9–19.4% 14.2–20.1%
12–17 May 2023 CURS 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–20 March 2023 CURS 16.0% 14.7–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 14.0–18.3% 13.4–19.0%
5–19 February 2023 INSCOP 18.2% 17.3–19.1% 17.1–19.4% 16.9–19.6% 16.4–20.1%
1–13 February 2023 INSCOP 19.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–30 January 2023 Atlas Intel 18.6% 17.5–19.8% 17.2–20.1% 16.9–20.4% 16.4–20.9%
10–20 January 2023 CURS 14.0% 12.7–15.4% 12.3–15.8% 12.0–16.2% 11.4–16.9%
1–31 December 2022 INSCOP 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.1% 15.9–20.5% 15.2–21.3%
8–22 November 2022 CURS 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.6–14.8%
1–31 October 2022 Sociopol 14.0% 12.6–15.6% 12.2–16.0% 11.8–16.4% 11.2–17.2%
8–22 September 2022 CURS 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.1–16.8% 12.8–17.2% 12.2–18.0%
1–31 August 2022 Sociopol 25.0% 23.2–26.9% 22.6–27.5% 22.2–28.0% 21.4–28.9%
5–17 August 2022 CURS 13.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–31 July 2022 Avangarde 10.9% 9.8–12.5% 9.4–12.9% 9.1–13.2% 8.6–13.9%
22–30 June 2022 Avangarde 11.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–26 May 2022 CURS 9.7% 9.0–10.5% 8.8–10.7% 8.7–10.9% 8.3–11.2%
12–20 April 2022 Avangarde 13.9% 12.5–15.5% 12.1–15.9% 11.8–16.3% 11.2–17.1%
28 March–11 April 2022 CURS 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.1% 10.8–13.3% 10.5–13.7%
22–29 March 2022 Avangarde 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–11 March 2022 CURS 14.0% 12.8–15.4% 12.4–15.8% 12.1–16.1% 11.6–16.8%
2–7 March 2022 INSCOP 18.9% 17.5–20.5% 17.1–21.0% 16.7–21.4% 16.0–22.2%
9–19 February 2022 Sociopol 22.0% 20.7–24.0% 20.2–24.5% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
20–31 January 2022 Avangarde 18.1% 16.5–19.8% 16.0–20.3% 15.7–20.7% 15.0–21.6%
22–29 January 2022 CURS 15.6% 14.2–17.1% 13.8–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.8–18.7%
10–18 January 2022 INSCOP 20.8% 19.4–22.5% 19.0–23.0% 18.7–23.4% 18.0–24.1%
15–23 December 2021 Avangarde 17.0% 15.5–18.7% 15.0–19.1% 14.7–19.6% 14.0–20.4%
17–22 December 2021 Sociopol 23.0% 21.3–24.8% 20.9–25.3% 20.5–25.7% 19.7–26.6%
13–17 December 2021 CURS 13.0% 11.8–14.4% 11.4–14.8% 11.1–15.1% 10.6–15.8%
16–24 November 2021 Avangarde 15.0% 13.6–16.6% 13.2–17.1% 12.8–17.5% 12.2–18.3%
17–22 November 2021 CURS 14.0% 12.7–15.4% 12.4–15.8% 12.1–16.2% 11.5–16.9%
25–30 October 2021 CURS 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.7–14.7%
17–26 October 2021 Avangarde 14.0% 12.6–15.6% 12.2–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.2–17.2%
15–25 October 2021 INSCOP 14.2% 12.9–15.6% 12.5–16.0% 12.2–16.4% 11.7–17.1%
12–20 October 2021 CURS 13.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–17 October 2021 INSCOP 15.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–15 October 2021 Sociopol 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.5–23.6% 17.8–24.4%
26–29 September 2021 Gazeta Civică 17.3% 16.0–18.8% 15.6–19.2% 15.3–19.6% 14.6–20.3%
28 September 2021 INSOMAR 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.2–20.2%
15–27 September 2021 INSCOP 17.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–21 September 2021 Avangarde 14.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–10 September 2021 CURS 14.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–5 September 2021 CURS 12.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–24 August 2021 Avangarde 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–20 August 2021 CURS 11.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–19 August 2021 IRES 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
1–15 July 2021 Sociopol 9.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–15 July 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 15.0% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.0% 13.0–17.4% 12.4–18.1%
11–18 June 2021 CURS 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.6–14.8%
1–15 June 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 18.3% 16.9–20.0% 16.5–20.4% 16.1–20.8% 15.4–21.6%
1–15 June 2021 INSCOP 14.2% 12.9–15.6% 12.5–16.0% 12.2–16.4% 11.7–17.1%
1–31 May 2021 Sociopol 11.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 May 2021 IRES 13.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 May 2021 Avangarde 14.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 May 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 15.4% 14.1–17.0% 13.7–17.4% 13.4–17.8% 12.7–18.5%
14–17 April 2021 CURS 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.7–14.7%
30 March–11 April 2021 BCS 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
12–28 March 2021 Sociopol 12.0% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–14.0% 10.0–14.4% 9.4–15.1%
1–12 March 2021 INSCOP 15.3% 13.9–16.8% 13.6–17.2% 13.3–17.5% 12.7–18.3%
22–26 February 2021 CURS 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.4–10.9% 7.0–11.4%
9–11 February 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.3–19.2%
15–17 January 2021 Avangarde 13.9% 12.4–15.7% 11.9–16.2% 11.6–16.7% 10.9–17.6%
11–15 January 2021 CURS 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.7–14.7%
17–21 December 2020 CURS 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.3–16.9% 13.0–17.2% 12.4–18.0%
10–20 December 2020 Avangarde 14.0% 12.6–15.6% 12.2–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.2–17.2%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0.1% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 2% 99.9%  
8.5–9.5% 10% 98% Last Result
9.5–10.5% 13% 88%  
10.5–11.5% 7% 75%  
11.5–12.5% 2% 68%  
12.5–13.5% 0.2% 67%  
13.5–14.5% 0% 67%  
14.5–15.5% 0.1% 67%  
15.5–16.5% 0.9% 67%  
16.5–17.5% 4% 66%  
17.5–18.5% 12% 62%  
18.5–19.5% 19% 50% Median
19.5–20.5% 18% 31%  
20.5–21.5% 10% 13%  
21.5–22.5% 3% 4%  
22.5–23.5% 0.5% 0.6%  
23.5–24.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
24.5–25.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 33 seats (General Election of 6 December 2020)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 65 36–75 35–78 34–78 32–84
26–30 December 2023 CURS 68 61–78 60–79 59–82 56–88
16–28 December 2023 ARA Public Opinion 39 34–44 33–46 32–47 29–49
20–27 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 68 62–74 60–75 60–76 57–80
23 October–2 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 69 66–78 65–79 65–80 61–85
15–22 September 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 80 75–85 74–86 72–88 71–89
12–22 September 2023 CURS 67 61–73 60–75 58–77 55–80
28–31 August 2023 INSOMAR 116 106–125 102–127 100–129 96–133
8–20 July 2023 CURS 73 67–79 65–81 64–82 61–85
1–30 June 2023 INSCOP 79 73–85 71–87 70–89 67–92
1 May–30 June 2023 Geeks for Democracy 66 60–73 59–75 57–76 55–80
19–27 May 2023 CURS 61 55–67 54–69 52–70 50–73
12–17 May 2023 CURS          
10–20 March 2023 CURS 58 52–65 51–66 49–69 47–73
5–19 February 2023 INSCOP 65 61–68 61–69 60–69 58–71
1–13 February 2023 INSCOP          
27–30 January 2023 Atlas Intel 66 62–70 60–71 60–72 58–75
10–20 January 2023 CURS 53 47–60 45–61 44–63 41–66
1–31 December 2022 INSCOP 70 64–76 63–78 61–79 59–82
8–22 November 2022 CURS 45 40–50 38–52 37–54 35–57
1–31 October 2022 Sociopol 50 45–56 44–57 43–59 40–62
8–22 September 2022 CURS 57 51–65 49–67 47–68 45–71
1–31 August 2022 Sociopol 88 81–94 79–96 78–98 75–101
5–17 August 2022 CURS          
22–31 July 2022 Avangarde 41 36–47 35–48 33–51 30–55
22–30 June 2022 Avangarde          
16–26 May 2022 CURS 35 33–39 32–39 32–40 31–43
12–20 April 2022 Avangarde 51 46–57 45–59 44–60 41–63
28 March–11 April 2022 CURS 42 39–46 39–46 38–46 37–49
22–29 March 2022 Avangarde          
2–11 March 2022 CURS 55 49–62 47–64 46–66 43–69
2–7 March 2022 INSCOP 72 67–78 65–80 64–81 61–84
9–19 February 2022 Sociopol 73 65–78 65–80 64–83 59–86
20–31 January 2022 Avangarde 69 63–76 62–78 60–79 58–82
22–29 January 2022 CURS 60 53–68 52–69 52–71 49–75
10–18 January 2022 INSCOP 74 68–77 65–80 65–82 62–84
15–23 December 2021 Avangarde 57 52–64 52–67 50–68 48–71
17–22 December 2021 Sociopol 81 76–88 74–90 71–91 70–93
13–17 December 2021 CURS 45 41–51 39–52 38–53 36–56
16–24 November 2021 Avangarde 52 47–58 46–60 45–62 42–64
17–22 November 2021 CURS 50 45–56 44–57 43–58 41–61
25–30 October 2021 CURS 41 37–47 36–48 35–49 33–53
17–26 October 2021 Avangarde 49 43–54 42–56 41–57 38–60
15–25 October 2021 INSCOP 50 45–54 44–55 43–57 41–60
12–20 October 2021 CURS          
12–17 October 2021 INSCOP          
11–15 October 2021 Sociopol 71 66–77 64–78 63–80 60–83
26–29 September 2021 Gazeta Civică 59 54–65 52–67 51–68 48–71
28 September 2021 INSOMAR 56 51–61 49–64 48–65 46–67
15–27 September 2021 INSCOP          
14–21 September 2021 Avangarde          
8–10 September 2021 CURS          
3–5 September 2021 CURS          
20–24 August 2021 Avangarde          
12–20 August 2021 CURS          
15–19 August 2021 IRES 46 41–51 40–52 39–53 37–55
1–15 July 2021 Sociopol          
1–15 July 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 56 50–61 49–62 48–64 46–67
11–18 June 2021 CURS 42 37–47 36–48 35–50 33–52
1–15 June 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 66 60–70 59–72 57–74 55–77
1–15 June 2021 INSCOP 52 47–57 46–59 44–60 42–63
1–31 May 2021 Sociopol          
1–31 May 2021 IRES          
1–31 May 2021 Avangarde          
7 May 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 56 51–63 50–65 48–66 45–69
14–17 April 2021 CURS 44 38–46 37–48 36–48 33–51
30 March–11 April 2021 BCS 35 32–39 31–40 30–41 28–43
12–28 March 2021 Sociopol 40 35–44 33–46 33–47 31–50
1–12 March 2021 INSCOP 54 49–59 47–61 46–62 44–64
22–26 February 2021 CURS 32 29–38 26–38 25–38 24–39
9–11 February 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 54 50–59 48–62 47–63 45–66
15–17 January 2021 Avangarde 47 41–53 40–54 39–56 36–59
11–15 January 2021 CURS 40 36–44 35–46 34–47 32–49
17–21 December 2020 CURS 50 45–54 44–56 43–57 41–59
10–20 December 2020 Avangarde 46 41–51 40–52 39–54 37–56

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.1% 99.8%  
31 0.2% 99.7%  
32 0.8% 99.5%  
33 0.8% 98.7% Last Result
34 2% 98%  
35 2% 96%  
36 4% 93%  
37 2% 90%  
38 4% 88%  
39 2% 84%  
40 4% 82%  
41 3% 78%  
42 2% 75%  
43 2% 73%  
44 2% 72%  
45 1.4% 70%  
46 0.8% 69%  
47 0.7% 68%  
48 0.1% 67%  
49 0.1% 67%  
50 0.1% 67%  
51 0% 67%  
52 0% 67%  
53 0% 67%  
54 0% 67%  
55 0.1% 67%  
56 0.1% 66%  
57 0.2% 66%  
58 0.6% 66%  
59 0.6% 66%  
60 2% 65%  
61 2% 63%  
62 2% 61%  
63 4% 59%  
64 4% 55%  
65 4% 51% Median
66 3% 47%  
67 10% 44%  
68 8% 35%  
69 2% 27%  
70 2% 25%  
71 4% 23%  
72 3% 18%  
73 3% 15%  
74 1.2% 12%  
75 3% 11%  
76 2% 7%  
77 0.3% 5%  
78 3% 5%  
79 0.4% 2%  
80 0.5% 2%  
81 0.2% 1.1%  
82 0.1% 0.9%  
83 0.1% 0.8%  
84 0.3% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%