Partidul Social Democrat

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 28.9% (General Election of 6 December 2020)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 31.0% 29.0–33.0% 28.5–33.6% 28.0–34.1% 27.2–35.1%
26–30 December 2023 CURS 31.0% 29.0–33.1% 28.4–33.7% 28.0–34.2% 27.0–35.2%
16–28 December 2023 ARA Public Opinion 31.5% 29.6–33.5% 29.1–34.0% 28.7–34.5% 27.8–35.5%
20–27 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 30.2% 28.7–32.3% 28.2–32.8% 27.8–33.2% 26.9–34.1%
23 October–2 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 29.5% 27.7–31.3% 27.3–31.8% 26.8–32.2% 26.0–33.1%
15–22 September 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 29.1% 27.6–30.6% 27.2–31.0% 26.9–31.4% 26.2–32.1%
12–22 September 2023 CURS 31.0% 29.1–32.9% 28.6–33.4% 28.2–33.9% 27.3–34.8%
28–31 August 2023 INSOMAR 25.0% 23.4–26.8% 22.9–27.3% 22.5–27.8% 21.7–28.7%
8–20 July 2023 CURS 31.0% 29.2–32.9% 28.7–33.4% 28.3–33.9% 27.5–34.8%
1–30 June 2023 INSCOP 28.7% 26.9–30.6% 26.4–31.1% 26.0–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
1 May–30 June 2023 Geeks for Democracy 31.0% 29.0–33.2% 28.4–33.8% 27.9–34.3% 27.0–35.3%
19–27 May 2023 CURS 31.0% 29.2–32.8% 28.7–33.3% 28.3–33.8% 27.4–34.7%
12–17 May 2023 CURS 32.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–20 March 2023 CURS 33.0% 31.2–34.9% 30.7–35.4% 30.3–35.9% 29.5–36.8%
5–19 February 2023 INSCOP 31.7% 30.6–32.8% 30.3–33.1% 30.1–33.4% 29.5–33.9%
1–13 February 2023 INSCOP 30.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–30 January 2023 Atlas Intel 25.8% 24.6–27.1% 24.2–27.5% 23.9–27.8% 23.4–28.4%
10–20 January 2023 CURS 36.0% 34.1–37.9% 33.6–38.5% 33.2–38.9% 32.3–39.8%
1–31 December 2022 INSCOP 31.5% 29.7–33.4% 29.2–33.9% 28.8–34.4% 27.9–35.3%
8–22 November 2022 CURS 34.0% 32.2–35.9% 31.7–36.5% 31.2–36.9% 30.4–37.8%
1–31 October 2022 Sociopol 35.9% 33.8–38.0% 33.2–38.6% 32.7–39.1% 31.8–40.1%
8–22 September 2022 CURS 34.7% 32.8–36.6% 32.3–37.2% 31.8–37.7% 30.9–38.6%
1–31 August 2022 Sociopol 32.0% 30.0–34.0% 29.4–34.6% 28.9–35.1% 28.0–36.1%
5–17 August 2022 CURS 32.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–31 July 2022 Avangarde 36.7% 35.0–39.1% 34.4–39.7% 33.9–40.2% 32.9–41.2%
22–30 June 2022 Avangarde 34.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–26 May 2022 CURS 34.0% 32.8–35.1% 32.5–35.5% 32.2–35.8% 31.7–36.3%
12–20 April 2022 Avangarde 35.7% 33.6–37.7% 33.1–38.3% 32.6–38.8% 31.6–39.8%
28 March–11 April 2022 CURS 35.0% 33.9–36.2% 33.5–36.5% 33.3–36.8% 32.7–37.4%
22–29 March 2022 Avangarde 35.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–11 March 2022 CURS 36.0% 34.2–37.8% 33.7–38.3% 33.3–38.8% 32.5–39.7%
2–7 March 2022 INSCOP 32.0% 30.2–33.9% 29.7–34.4% 29.3–34.9% 28.5–35.8%
9–19 February 2022 Sociopol 35.0% 33.6–37.4% 33.0–38.0% 32.6–38.5% 31.7–39.4%
20–31 January 2022 Avangarde 35.0% 33.0–37.1% 32.4–37.7% 31.9–38.2% 31.0–39.2%
22–29 January 2022 CURS 34.0% 32.1–36.0% 31.6–36.5% 31.1–37.0% 30.2–37.9%
10–18 January 2022 INSCOP 34.8% 33.0–36.6% 32.5–37.1% 32.1–37.6% 31.2–38.4%
15–23 December 2021 Avangarde 39.0% 37.0–41.1% 36.4–41.7% 35.9–42.2% 34.9–43.3%
17–22 December 2021 Sociopol 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.2–36.9%
13–17 December 2021 CURS 38.0% 36.1–39.9% 35.6–40.5% 35.2–40.9% 34.3–41.8%
16–24 November 2021 Avangarde 40.0% 37.9–42.1% 37.3–42.7% 36.8–43.2% 35.8–44.2%
17–22 November 2021 CURS 38.0% 36.1–39.9% 35.6–40.5% 35.2–40.9% 34.3–41.8%
25–30 October 2021 CURS 39.0% 37.1–40.9% 36.6–41.5% 36.2–41.9% 35.3–42.8%
17–26 October 2021 Avangarde 39.9% 37.8–42.0% 37.2–42.6% 36.7–43.1% 35.8–44.2%
15–25 October 2021 INSCOP 35.5% 33.6–37.3% 33.1–37.9% 32.7–38.3% 31.8–39.2%
12–20 October 2021 CURS 39.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–17 October 2021 INSCOP 36.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–15 October 2021 Sociopol 32.0% 30.2–34.0% 29.7–34.5% 29.2–35.0% 28.3–35.9%
26–29 September 2021 Gazeta Civică 27.7% 26.1–29.4% 25.6–29.9% 25.2–30.3% 24.5–31.1%
28 September 2021 INSOMAR 31.6% 29.7–33.5% 29.2–34.0% 28.8–34.5% 27.9–35.4%
15–27 September 2021 INSCOP 35.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–21 September 2021 Avangarde 37.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–10 September 2021 CURS 36.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–5 September 2021 CURS 35.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–24 August 2021 Avangarde 35.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–20 August 2021 CURS 34.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–19 August 2021 IRES 35.0% 33.1–37.0% 32.6–37.5% 32.1–38.0% 31.2–38.9%
1–15 July 2021 Sociopol 30.7% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–15 July 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 38.1% 36.1–40.0% 35.6–40.6% 35.1–41.1% 34.2–42.0%
11–18 June 2021 CURS 34.0% 32.2–35.9% 31.7–36.5% 31.2–36.9% 30.4–37.8%
1–15 June 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 23.4% 21.7–25.1% 21.2–25.6% 20.8–26.0% 20.1–26.8%
1–15 June 2021 INSCOP 30.2% 28.4–32.0% 28.0–32.5% 27.5–33.0% 26.7–33.9%
1–31 May 2021 Sociopol 36.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 May 2021 IRES 34.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 May 2021 Avangarde 35.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 May 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 22.0% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.2% 19.6–24.7% 18.9–25.5%
14–17 April 2021 CURS 33.0% 31.2–34.8% 30.7–35.3% 30.3–35.8% 29.4–36.7%
30 March–11 April 2021 BCS 28.9% 27.4–30.5% 27.0–31.0% 26.6–31.4% 25.9–32.1%
12–28 March 2021 Sociopol 35.1% 33.0–37.2% 32.4–37.8% 31.9–38.3% 31.0–39.3%
1–12 March 2021 INSCOP 30.6% 28.9–32.5% 28.4–33.0% 28.0–33.4% 27.2–34.3%
22–26 February 2021 CURS 34.0% 32.2–35.9% 31.7–36.4% 31.3–36.9% 30.4–37.8%
9–11 February 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 28.0% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.3% 25.3–30.8% 24.5–31.7%
15–17 January 2021 Avangarde 33.9% 31.7–36.3% 31.1–36.9% 30.5–37.5% 29.5–38.6%
11–15 January 2021 CURS 34.0% 32.2–35.9% 31.7–36.4% 31.3–36.9% 30.4–37.8%
17–21 December 2020 CURS 35.0% 33.2–36.9% 32.7–37.4% 32.2–37.9% 31.4–38.8%
10–20 December 2020 Avangarde 35.0% 33.0–37.1% 32.4–37.7% 31.9–38.2% 31.0–39.2%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partidul Social Democrat.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24.5–25.5% 0% 100%  
25.5–26.5% 0.1% 100%  
26.5–27.5% 1.0% 99.9%  
27.5–28.5% 4% 98.9%  
28.5–29.5% 12% 95% Last Result
29.5–30.5% 21% 83%  
30.5–31.5% 25% 61% Median
31.5–32.5% 20% 36%  
32.5–33.5% 11% 16%  
33.5–34.5% 4% 5%  
34.5–35.5% 1.1% 1.3%  
35.5–36.5% 0.2% 0.2%  
36.5–37.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 110 seats (General Election of 6 December 2020)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 112 101–128 98–133 94–134 93–138
26–30 December 2023 CURS 111 104–125 101–127 99–128 95–135
16–28 December 2023 ARA Public Opinion 125 116–134 115–135 112–136 108–141
20–27 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 103 96–111 94–113 94–116 92–118
23 October–2 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 108 98–112 97–113 96–115 94–120
15–22 September 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 105 98–109 97–110 96–112 93–115
12–22 September 2023 CURS 116 108–123 106–125 104–127 100–130
28–31 August 2023 INSOMAR 110 99–117 96–119 93–121 89–123
8–20 July 2023 CURS 113 107–120 104–122 102–124 99–126
1–30 June 2023 INSCOP 113 106–120 104–122 102–123 99–127
1 May–30 June 2023 Geeks for Democracy 115 108–123 106–125 104–127 101–131
19–27 May 2023 CURS 111 103–120 102–122 99–123 96–127
12–17 May 2023 CURS          
10–20 March 2023 CURS 120 111–131 109–135 107–138 103–144
5–19 February 2023 INSCOP 113 109–117 108–118 107–118 105–120
1–13 February 2023 INSCOP          
27–30 January 2023 Atlas Intel 93 88–97 86–98 85–100 82–101
10–20 January 2023 CURS 136 125–150 122–152 119–155 115–158
1–31 December 2022 INSCOP 122 117–128 112–132 112–133 108–137
8–22 November 2022 CURS 127 120–136 116–142 114–145 111–151
1–31 October 2022 Sociopol 135 127–141 124–143 122–147 118–153
8–22 September 2022 CURS 133 124–147 119–147 117–148 113–155
1–31 August 2022 Sociopol 112 105–119 103–121 102–123 99–127
5–17 August 2022 CURS          
22–31 July 2022 Avangarde 138 129–149 127–153 125–155 120–162
22–30 June 2022 Avangarde          
16–26 May 2022 CURS 125 121–130 119–138 119–142 116–143
12–20 April 2022 Avangarde 132 125–139 123–141 121–143 118–147
28 March–11 April 2022 CURS 125 118–130 117–131 116–131 113–133
22–29 March 2022 Avangarde          
2–11 March 2022 CURS 138 129–156 125–157 123–160 120–161
2–7 March 2022 INSCOP 122 116–129 114–131 113–133 109–136
9–19 February 2022 Sociopol 119 114–127 111–128 107–130 104–133
20–31 January 2022 Avangarde 135 128–142 126–144 124–146 120–150
22–29 January 2022 CURS 129 123–140 121–144 119–147 114–157
10–18 January 2022 INSCOP 121 116–127 114–129 113–131 109–133
15–23 December 2021 Avangarde 138 129–145 127–147 124–148 120–152
17–22 December 2021 Sociopol 118 111–123 109–125 108–126 104–130
13–17 December 2021 CURS 133 125–142 123–145 121–146 117–150
16–24 November 2021 Avangarde 141 133–148 130–151 128–153 123–155
17–22 November 2021 CURS 137 129–144 127–146 125–148 120–151
25–30 October 2021 CURS 137 128–146 125–148 123–150 120–153
17–26 October 2021 Avangarde 138 132–146 129–149 126–151 121–154
15–25 October 2021 INSCOP 124 118–130 116–133 115–134 112–137
12–20 October 2021 CURS          
12–17 October 2021 INSCOP          
11–15 October 2021 Sociopol 109 103–115 101–117 99–119 96–122
26–29 September 2021 Gazeta Civică 95 88–102 86–104 84–106 81–110
28 September 2021 INSOMAR 106 101–111 99–113 97–114 93–117
15–27 September 2021 INSCOP          
14–21 September 2021 Avangarde          
8–10 September 2021 CURS          
3–5 September 2021 CURS          
20–24 August 2021 Avangarde          
12–20 August 2021 CURS          
15–19 August 2021 IRES 114 109–121 107–123 105–125 102–128
1–15 July 2021 Sociopol          
1–15 July 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 141 134–148 132–150 130–151 127–155
11–18 June 2021 CURS 119 112–128 110–130 108–132 105–135
1–15 June 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 82 77–89 76–90 74–92 72–95
1–15 June 2021 INSCOP 112 104–118 102–120 101–122 96–125
1–31 May 2021 Sociopol          
1–31 May 2021 IRES          
1–31 May 2021 Avangarde          
7 May 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 81 74–88 72–91 70–92 68–96
14–17 April 2021 CURS 116 109–124 106–124 104–127 102–132
30 March–11 April 2021 BCS 103 97–108 95–110 94–111 90–114
12–28 March 2021 Sociopol 116 109–123 108–126 106–127 103–131
1–12 March 2021 INSCOP 108 101–116 98–118 97–119 94–123
22–26 February 2021 CURS 120 114–127 112–130 110–132 108–134
9–11 February 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 95 88–102 87–105 86–107 83–108
15–17 January 2021 Avangarde 114 106–122 104–124 102–126 99–129
11–15 January 2021 CURS 114 108–120 106–122 105–124 102–127
17–21 December 2020 CURS 116 110–123 109–124 107–126 104–129
10–20 December 2020 Avangarde 115 108–122 107–124 105–125 102–128

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partidul Social Democrat.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.3% 99.8%  
94 2% 99.5%  
95 0.5% 97%  
96 1.5% 97%  
97 0.4% 95%  
98 1.5% 95%  
99 1.5% 94%  
100 1.1% 92%  
101 2% 91%  
102 2% 89%  
103 7% 87%  
104 3% 80%  
105 2% 77%  
106 3% 74%  
107 5% 71%  
108 2% 66%  
109 4% 65%  
110 2% 61% Last Result
111 8% 59%  
112 2% 51% Median
113 3% 49%  
114 1.1% 46%  
115 4% 45%  
116 3% 41%  
117 3% 38%  
118 2% 35%  
119 2% 34%  
120 3% 31%  
121 2% 29%  
122 3% 27%  
123 2% 24%  
124 0.8% 22%  
125 3% 21%  
126 2% 18%  
127 4% 16%  
128 2% 12%  
129 0.5% 10%  
130 0.8% 9%  
131 2% 9%  
132 0.6% 6%  
133 1.2% 6%  
134 2% 5%  
135 0.4% 2%  
136 1.0% 2%  
137 0.2% 0.8%  
138 0.3% 0.7%  
139 0.1% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%