Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 15.4% (General Election of 6 December 2020)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 12.0% 8.6–15.6% 8.1–16.3% 7.8–16.7% 7.1–17.6%
26–30 December 2023 CURS 9.0% 7.9–10.4% 7.6–10.8% 7.3–11.2% 6.8–11.9%
16–28 December 2023 ARA Public Opinion 15.0% 13.6–16.6% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.2–18.2%
20–27 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 11.9% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.7–14.8%
23 October–2 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 14.1% 12.8–15.5% 12.5–15.9% 12.1–16.3% 11.6–17.0%
15–22 September 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4% 9.5–12.6% 9.1–13.2%
12–22 September 2023 CURS 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
28–31 August 2023 INSOMAR 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
8–20 July 2023 CURS 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.8% 10.2–14.1% 9.7–14.8%
1–30 June 2023 INSCOP 12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
1 May–30 June 2023 Geeks for Democracy 11.0% 9.7–12.6% 9.4–13.0% 9.1–13.4% 8.5–14.2%
19–27 May 2023 CURS 11.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.3–13.0% 8.7–13.7%
12–17 May 2023 CURS 10.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–20 March 2023 CURS 9.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.4–10.8% 7.0–11.4%
5–19 February 2023 INSCOP 11.2% 10.5–12.0% 10.3–12.2% 10.1–12.4% 9.8–12.8%
1–13 February 2023 INSCOP 10.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–30 January 2023 Atlas Intel 12.9% 12.0–13.9% 11.7–14.2% 11.5–14.4% 11.1–15.0%
10–20 January 2023 CURS 8.0% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.3%
1–31 December 2022 INSCOP 10.9% 9.7–12.2% 9.4–12.6% 9.1–12.9% 8.6–13.5%
8–22 November 2022 CURS 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 7.0–11.5%
1–31 October 2022 Sociopol 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.9% 9.1–13.3% 8.5–14.0%
8–22 September 2022 CURS 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
1–31 August 2022 Sociopol 11.0% 9.7–12.5% 9.4–12.9% 9.1–13.3% 8.5–14.0%
5–17 August 2022 CURS 10.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22–31 July 2022 Avangarde 8.9% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.7% 7.3–11.1% 6.8–11.7%
22–30 June 2022 Avangarde 8.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–26 May 2022 CURS 8.7% 8.1–9.5% 7.9–9.7% 7.7–9.8% 7.4–10.2%
12–20 April 2022 Avangarde 10.9% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.8% 9.1–13.1% 8.5–13.9%
28 March–11 April 2022 CURS 11.0% 10.3–11.8% 10.1–12.1% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.7%
22–29 March 2022 Avangarde 12.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–11 March 2022 CURS 8.0% 7.1–9.1% 6.8–9.4% 6.6–9.7% 6.2–10.3%
2–7 March 2022 INSCOP 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.1–12.8% 8.5–13.4%
9–19 February 2022 Sociopol 13.0% 11.9–14.6% 11.5–15.1% 11.2–15.4% 10.6–16.2%
20–31 January 2022 Avangarde 12.0% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–13.9% 10.0–14.3% 9.4–15.0%
22–29 January 2022 CURS 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.2–11.3% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.3%
10–18 January 2022 INSCOP 12.6% 11.5–14.0% 11.1–14.4% 10.9–14.7% 10.3–15.3%
15–23 December 2021 Avangarde 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.5–11.8% 8.2–12.2% 7.7–12.9%
17–22 December 2021 Sociopol 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
13–17 December 2021 CURS 11.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.7% 9.3–13.0% 8.8–13.6%
16–24 November 2021 Avangarde 11.0% 9.8–12.5% 9.4–12.9% 9.2–13.3% 8.6–14.0%
17–22 November 2021 CURS 11.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.7% 9.3–13.0% 8.8–13.6%
25–30 October 2021 CURS 11.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.7% 9.3–13.0% 8.8–13.6%
17–26 October 2021 Avangarde 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.3–15.0% 11.0–15.4% 10.3–16.1%
15–25 October 2021 INSCOP 12.4% 11.2–13.7% 10.8–14.1% 10.5–14.4% 10.0–15.1%
12–20 October 2021 CURS 11.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–17 October 2021 INSCOP 16.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–15 October 2021 Sociopol 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.2% 10.4–15.9%
26–29 September 2021 Gazeta Civică 17.8% 16.4–19.3% 16.1–19.7% 15.7–20.1% 15.1–20.8%
28 September 2021 INSOMAR 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.0%
15–27 September 2021 INSCOP 9.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–21 September 2021 Avangarde 13.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–10 September 2021 CURS 11.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–5 September 2021 CURS 11.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–24 August 2021 Avangarde 14.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–20 August 2021 CURS 12.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–19 August 2021 IRES 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
1–15 July 2021 Sociopol 14.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–15 July 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 11.1% 9.9–12.4% 9.6–12.8% 9.3–13.1% 8.8–13.8%
11–18 June 2021 CURS 14.0% 12.7–15.4% 12.3–15.8% 12.0–16.2% 11.4–16.9%
1–15 June 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 15.3% 13.9–16.8% 13.5–17.2% 13.2–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
1–15 June 2021 INSCOP 13.2% 11.9–14.6% 11.6–15.0% 11.3–15.3% 10.7–16.0%
1–31 May 2021 Sociopol 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 May 2021 IRES 10.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–31 May 2021 Avangarde 13.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 May 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.7% 10.9–16.4%
14–17 April 2021 CURS 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.0%
30 March–11 April 2021 BCS 22.5% 21.2–24.0% 20.8–24.4% 20.4–24.8% 19.8–25.5%
12–28 March 2021 Sociopol 17.0% 15.4–18.7% 15.0–19.2% 14.6–19.6% 13.9–20.4%
1–12 March 2021 INSCOP 14.2% 12.9–15.6% 12.5–16.0% 12.2–16.4% 11.7–17.1%
22–26 February 2021 CURS 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.0%
9–11 February 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.2% 11.4–17.0%
15–17 January 2021 Avangarde 16.1% 14.4–17.9% 13.9–18.5% 13.5–18.9% 12.8–19.9%
11–15 January 2021 CURS 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.0%
17–21 December 2020 CURS 14.0% 12.7–15.4% 12.4–15.8% 12.1–16.2% 11.5–16.9%
10–20 December 2020 Avangarde 15.0% 13.6–16.6% 13.2–17.1% 12.8–17.5% 12.1–18.3%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5.5–6.5% 0.1% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 2% 99.9%  
7.5–8.5% 8% 98%  
8.5–9.5% 13% 91%  
9.5–10.5% 10% 77%  
10.5–11.5% 11% 67%  
11.5–12.5% 14% 57% Median
12.5–13.5% 11% 43%  
13.5–14.5% 10% 33%  
14.5–15.5% 11% 22% Last Result
15.5–16.5% 8% 11%  
16.5–17.5% 3% 3%  
17.5–18.5% 0.5% 0.6%  
18.5–19.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
19.5–20.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 55 seats (General Election of 6 December 2020)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 41 32–61 30–64 0–66 0–70
26–30 December 2023 CURS 33 28–38 0–40 0–41 0–44
16–28 December 2023 ARA Public Opinion 59 53–65 52–68 51–70 48–72
20–27 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 41 35–45 35–47 35–48 33–50
23 October–2 November 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 52 47–55 45–57 43–59 41–61
15–22 September 2023 INSCOP
News.ro		 38 35–43 34–45 34–46 33–47
12–22 September 2023 CURS 41 36–46 35–47 34–48 32–51
28–31 August 2023 INSOMAR 0 0–32 0–33 0–34 0–36
8–20 July 2023 CURS 44 39–49 38–50 37–51 35–54
1–30 June 2023 INSCOP 50 45–55 43–57 42–58 40–61
1 May–30 June 2023 Geeks for Democracy 41 36–46 35–48 33–49 31–52
19–27 May 2023 CURS 40 35–44 34–45 33–47 31–50
12–17 May 2023 CURS          
10–20 March 2023 CURS 32 0–36 0–37 0–39 0–41
5–19 February 2023 INSCOP 40 37–42 36–43 36–44 34–45
1–13 February 2023 INSCOP          
27–30 January 2023 Atlas Intel 46 42–49 42–50 41–51 39–53
10–20 January 2023 CURS 0 0–33 0–34 0–35 0–37
1–31 December 2022 INSCOP 42 37–47 36–48 35–49 33–52
8–22 November 2022 CURS 33 0–38 0–38 0–40 0–42
1–31 October 2022 Sociopol 40 35–51 34–51 33–51 31–51
8–22 September 2022 CURS 0 0–33 0–34 0–35 0–38
1–31 August 2022 Sociopol 38 34–43 33–45 32–46 30–49
5–17 August 2022 CURS          
22–31 July 2022 Avangarde 32 0–38 0–38 0–40 0–42
22–30 June 2022 Avangarde          
16–26 May 2022 CURS 32 30–34 0–35 0–35 0–37
12–20 April 2022 Avangarde 40 36–45 34–47 33–48 31–51
28 March–11 April 2022 CURS 39 35–41 34–43 34–43 33–45
22–29 March 2022 Avangarde          
2–11 March 2022 CURS 30 0–34 0–35 0–36 0–39
2–7 March 2022 INSCOP 41 37–46 35–47 34–48 32–51
9–19 February 2022 Sociopol 45 41–50 39–50 38–51 36–53
20–31 January 2022 Avangarde 46 41–51 39–53 38–54 36–57
22–29 January 2022 CURS 38 34–41 31–41 0–43 0–48
10–18 January 2022 INSCOP 45 40–50 38–51 37–52 35–55
15–23 December 2021 Avangarde 36 31–39 29–40 28–43 0–45
17–22 December 2021 Sociopol 44 37–48 36–49 36–49 34–53
13–17 December 2021 CURS 38 34–43 33–45 32–46 30–48
16–24 November 2021 Avangarde 39 34–43 33–44 32–46 30–49
17–22 November 2021 CURS 40 35–44 34–45 33–47 31–49
25–30 October 2021 CURS 38 34–44 32–45 31–46 30–49
17–26 October 2021 Avangarde 45 40–51 39–51 37–53 35–56
15–25 October 2021 INSCOP 43 38–48 38–49 37–50 35–53
12–20 October 2021 CURS          
12–17 October 2021 INSCOP          
11–15 October 2021 Sociopol 44 39–49 38–50 37–51 35–54
26–29 September 2021 Gazeta Civică 61 55–67 53–68 53–70 50–72
28 September 2021 INSOMAR 50 45–54 44–56 42–57 40–60
15–27 September 2021 INSCOP          
14–21 September 2021 Avangarde          
8–10 September 2021 CURS          
3–5 September 2021 CURS          
20–24 August 2021 Avangarde          
12–20 August 2021 CURS          
15–19 August 2021 IRES 46 41–51 40–52 39–53 37–56
1–15 July 2021 Sociopol          
1–15 July 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 41 36–46 35–47 34–48 32–51
11–18 June 2021 CURS 49 44–55 42–57 41–58 39–60
1–15 June 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 54 49–59 48–60 47–63 44–64
1–15 June 2021 INSCOP 48 43–53 42–55 41–56 39–59
1–31 May 2021 Sociopol          
1–31 May 2021 IRES          
1–31 May 2021 Avangarde          
7 May 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 49 44–55 43–57 41–59 40–61
14–17 April 2021 CURS 55 50–61 50–64 49–64 47–68
30 March–11 April 2021 BCS 79 74–85 73–87 72–88 69–90
12–28 March 2021 Sociopol 55 52–62 48–62 48–63 46–68
1–12 March 2021 INSCOP 50 45–55 43–56 43–58 40–60
22–26 February 2021 CURS 57 51–63 49–64 49–65 47–67
9–11 February 2021 INSOMAR
Realitatea.net		 47 43–53 42–54 40–55 38–58
15–17 January 2021 Avangarde 54 48–60 46–62 45–63 43–66
11–15 January 2021 CURS 53 49–58 48–60 47–61 45–64
17–21 December 2020 CURS 46 42–51 41–53 40–54 38–56
10–20 December 2020 Avangarde 49 44–54 43–56 42–57 40–60

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0.1% 97%  
28 0.2% 97%  
29 1.0% 96%  
30 3% 95%  
31 2% 93%  
32 2% 90%  
33 7% 88%  
34 4% 81%  
35 10% 77%  
36 2% 67%  
37 3% 64%  
38 3% 61%  
39 2% 58%  
40 4% 56%  
41 4% 52% Median
42 2% 48%  
43 3% 46%  
44 2% 43%  
45 4% 41%  
46 0.4% 36%  
47 2% 36%  
48 0.4% 34%  
49 0.4% 34%  
50 0.6% 33%  
51 0.8% 33%  
52 0.7% 32%  
53 2% 31%  
54 1.2% 29%  
55 0.5% 28% Last Result
56 4% 28%  
57 5% 24%  
58 1.2% 19%  
59 3% 18%  
60 5% 15%  
61 1.4% 11%  
62 1.0% 9%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 6%  
65 0.6% 4%  
66 0.9% 3%  
67 0.3% 2%  
68 0.3% 2%  
69 0.2% 2%  
70 1.1% 1.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%