Opinion Poll by CURS, 17–21 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 35.0% 33.2–36.9% 32.7–37.4% 32.2–37.9% 31.4–38.8%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 26.0% 24.4–27.8% 23.9–28.2% 23.5–28.7% 22.7–29.5%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.3–16.9% 13.0–17.2% 12.4–18.0%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 14.0% 12.7–15.4% 12.4–15.8% 12.1–16.2% 11.5–16.9%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.8%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
PRO România 4.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 116 110–123 109–124 107–126 104–129
Partidul Național Liberal 93 86 81–92 79–94 78–95 75–98
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 50 45–54 44–56 43–57 41–59
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 46 42–51 41–53 40–54 38–56
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 13 11–16 10–17 9–17 9–19
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.4% 99.5%  
106 0.7% 99.1%  
107 1.2% 98%  
108 2% 97%  
109 3% 95%  
110 4% 93% Last Result
111 3% 89%  
112 6% 86%  
113 6% 79%  
114 7% 73%  
115 7% 66%  
116 9% 59% Median
117 10% 49%  
118 6% 39%  
119 5% 33%  
120 9% 28%  
121 6% 19%  
122 3% 14%  
123 3% 10%  
124 3% 7%  
125 2% 5%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 0.9% 2%  
128 0.4% 0.9%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.5% 99.4%  
77 0.9% 99.0%  
78 1.4% 98%  
79 2% 97%  
80 3% 94%  
81 5% 91%  
82 5% 86%  
83 8% 81%  
84 8% 73%  
85 9% 65%  
86 8% 56% Median
87 9% 49%  
88 9% 40%  
89 6% 30%  
90 7% 24%  
91 5% 18%  
92 3% 12%  
93 3% 9% Last Result
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.3%  
98 0.4% 0.7%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.7%  
42 1.0% 99.1%  
43 2% 98%  
44 4% 96%  
45 4% 93%  
46 7% 89%  
47 9% 82%  
48 10% 73%  
49 11% 63%  
50 10% 53% Median
51 12% 42%  
52 8% 31%  
53 8% 23%  
54 5% 15%  
55 4% 10%  
56 3% 6%  
57 1.4% 3%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.9%  
60 0.3% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 0.9% 99.2%  
40 2% 98%  
41 4% 96%  
42 6% 92%  
43 9% 86%  
44 9% 77%  
45 11% 68%  
46 11% 57% Median
47 12% 46%  
48 10% 35%  
49 8% 25%  
50 5% 17%  
51 3% 12%  
52 3% 8%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.8% 1.5% Last Result
56 0.4% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.4% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 6% 97%  
11 12% 92%  
12 18% 80%  
13 21% 61% Median
14 16% 40%  
15 11% 24%  
16 7% 13%  
17 4% 6%  
18 1.2% 2%  
19 0.5% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.1% Last Result
22 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 146 0% 139–152 138–154 136–155 133–158
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 146 0% 139–152 138–154 136–155 133–158
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 133 0% 126–139 125–141 123–142 120–145
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 133 0% 126–139 125–141 123–142 120–145
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 116 0% 110–123 109–124 107–126 104–129
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 100 0% 94–106 92–107 91–109 88–112
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 100 0% 94–106 92–107 91–109 88–112
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 86 0% 81–92 79–94 78–95 75–98
Partidul Național Liberal 93 86 0% 81–92 79–94 78–95 75–98
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 46 0% 42–51 41–53 40–54 38–56

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.3% 99.7%  
134 0.5% 99.5%  
135 0.6% 99.0%  
136 1.1% 98%  
137 2% 97%  
138 3% 96%  
139 3% 93%  
140 4% 90%  
141 5% 86%  
142 7% 81%  
143 6% 75%  
144 7% 68%  
145 9% 61% Median
146 7% 52%  
147 9% 45%  
148 6% 36%  
149 7% 29%  
150 6% 22%  
151 4% 16%  
152 3% 12%  
153 3% 9%  
154 2% 6%  
155 1.3% 4%  
156 1.0% 2%  
157 0.5% 1.4%  
158 0.4% 0.9%  
159 0.2% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.3% 99.7%  
134 0.5% 99.5%  
135 0.6% 99.0%  
136 1.1% 98%  
137 2% 97%  
138 3% 96%  
139 3% 93%  
140 4% 90%  
141 5% 86%  
142 7% 81%  
143 6% 75%  
144 7% 68%  
145 9% 61% Median
146 7% 52%  
147 9% 45%  
148 6% 36%  
149 7% 29%  
150 6% 22%  
151 4% 16%  
152 3% 12%  
153 3% 9%  
154 2% 6%  
155 1.3% 4%  
156 1.0% 2%  
157 0.5% 1.4%  
158 0.4% 0.9%  
159 0.2% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.3% 99.8%  
121 0.5% 99.4%  
122 0.6% 98.9%  
123 1.0% 98%  
124 1.2% 97%  
125 3% 96%  
126 4% 93%  
127 4% 89%  
128 5% 85%  
129 6% 80%  
130 5% 74%  
131 9% 69%  
132 9% 60% Median
133 9% 51%  
134 8% 42%  
135 6% 34%  
136 5% 28%  
137 8% 22%  
138 4% 15%  
139 4% 11%  
140 2% 7%  
141 2% 5%  
142 1.1% 4%  
143 1.2% 2%  
144 0.6% 1.3%  
145 0.3% 0.7%  
146 0.2% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.3% 99.8%  
121 0.5% 99.4%  
122 0.6% 98.9%  
123 1.0% 98%  
124 1.2% 97%  
125 3% 96%  
126 4% 93%  
127 4% 89%  
128 5% 85%  
129 6% 80%  
130 5% 74%  
131 9% 69%  
132 9% 60% Median
133 9% 51%  
134 8% 42%  
135 6% 34%  
136 5% 28%  
137 8% 22%  
138 4% 15%  
139 4% 11%  
140 2% 7%  
141 2% 5%  
142 1.1% 4%  
143 1.2% 2%  
144 0.6% 1.3%  
145 0.3% 0.7%  
146 0.2% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.4% 99.5%  
106 0.7% 99.1%  
107 1.2% 98%  
108 2% 97%  
109 3% 95%  
110 4% 93% Last Result
111 3% 89%  
112 6% 86%  
113 6% 79%  
114 7% 73%  
115 7% 66%  
116 9% 59% Median
117 10% 49%  
118 6% 39%  
119 5% 33%  
120 9% 28%  
121 6% 19%  
122 3% 14%  
123 3% 10%  
124 3% 7%  
125 2% 5%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 0.9% 2%  
128 0.4% 0.9%  
129 0.2% 0.5%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 0.7% 99.3%  
90 0.9% 98.6%  
91 1.3% 98%  
92 3% 96%  
93 3% 94%  
94 5% 91%  
95 5% 86%  
96 6% 80%  
97 8% 74%  
98 9% 66%  
99 7% 57% Median
100 11% 51%  
101 6% 40%  
102 6% 33%  
103 9% 27%  
104 5% 18%  
105 4% 14%  
106 4% 10%  
107 2% 7%  
108 2% 5%  
109 1.4% 3%  
110 0.5% 2%  
111 0.5% 1.0%  
112 0.2% 0.5%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 0.7% 99.3%  
90 0.9% 98.6%  
91 1.3% 98%  
92 3% 96%  
93 3% 94%  
94 5% 91%  
95 5% 86%  
96 6% 80%  
97 8% 74%  
98 9% 66%  
99 7% 57% Median
100 11% 51%  
101 6% 40%  
102 6% 33%  
103 9% 27%  
104 5% 18%  
105 4% 14%  
106 4% 10%  
107 2% 7%  
108 2% 5%  
109 1.4% 3%  
110 0.5% 2%  
111 0.5% 1.0%  
112 0.2% 0.5%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.5% 99.4%  
77 0.9% 99.0%  
78 1.4% 98%  
79 2% 97%  
80 3% 94%  
81 5% 91%  
82 5% 86%  
83 8% 81%  
84 8% 73%  
85 9% 65%  
86 8% 56% Median
87 9% 49%  
88 9% 40%  
89 6% 30%  
90 7% 24%  
91 5% 18%  
92 3% 12%  
93 3% 9% Last Result
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.3%  
98 0.4% 0.7%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.5% 99.4%  
77 0.9% 99.0%  
78 1.4% 98%  
79 2% 97%  
80 3% 94%  
81 5% 91%  
82 5% 86%  
83 8% 81%  
84 8% 73%  
85 9% 65%  
86 8% 56% Median
87 9% 49%  
88 9% 40%  
89 6% 30%  
90 7% 24%  
91 5% 18%  
92 3% 12%  
93 3% 9% Last Result
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.3%  
98 0.4% 0.7%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 0.9% 99.2%  
40 2% 98%  
41 4% 96%  
42 6% 92%  
43 9% 86%  
44 9% 77%  
45 11% 68%  
46 11% 57% Median
47 12% 46%  
48 10% 35%  
49 8% 25%  
50 5% 17%  
51 3% 12%  
52 3% 8%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.8% 1.5% Last Result
56 0.4% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations