Opinion Poll by CURS, 11–15 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 34.0% 32.2–35.9% 31.7–36.4% 31.3–36.9% 30.4–37.8%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 26.0% 24.4–27.8% 23.9–28.2% 23.5–28.7% 22.7–29.5%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.0%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.7–14.7%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
PRO România 4.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 114 108–120 106–122 105–124 102–127
Partidul Național Liberal 93 87 82–93 80–95 79–96 76–99
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 53 49–58 48–60 47–61 45–64
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 40 36–44 35–46 34–47 32–49
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 17 14–20 13–21 13–21 11–23
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.7%  
103 0.4% 99.3%  
104 0.8% 98.9%  
105 1.2% 98%  
106 2% 97%  
107 3% 95%  
108 3% 92%  
109 5% 89%  
110 6% 84% Last Result
111 8% 78%  
112 7% 71%  
113 7% 64%  
114 8% 57% Median
115 9% 48%  
116 7% 39%  
117 7% 32%  
118 6% 25%  
119 6% 19%  
120 4% 13%  
121 2% 9%  
122 2% 6%  
123 1.3% 4%  
124 1.2% 3%  
125 0.7% 2%  
126 0.3% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 0.7% 99.4%  
78 0.9% 98.8%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 96%  
81 3% 94%  
82 5% 91%  
83 7% 86%  
84 7% 79%  
85 8% 73%  
86 7% 65%  
87 10% 58% Median
88 9% 47%  
89 8% 38%  
90 6% 30%  
91 7% 24%  
92 5% 17%  
93 4% 12% Last Result
94 3% 8%  
95 2% 5%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.1%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 99.6%  
46 1.1% 98.7%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 95%  
49 6% 93%  
50 5% 86%  
51 10% 82%  
52 8% 72%  
53 15% 64% Median
54 8% 49%  
55 10% 41% Last Result
56 9% 31%  
57 8% 21%  
58 4% 14%  
59 4% 10%  
60 3% 6%  
61 1.4% 3%  
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.6% 1.2%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 1.0% 99.4% Last Result
34 2% 98%  
35 4% 97%  
36 5% 93%  
37 9% 87%  
38 10% 79%  
39 11% 69%  
40 13% 58% Median
41 11% 45%  
42 11% 34%  
43 7% 23%  
44 6% 16%  
45 4% 9%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.7% 1.4%  
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.4%  
13 5% 98%  
14 9% 93%  
15 16% 83%  
16 17% 67%  
17 18% 51% Median
18 13% 33%  
19 11% 21%  
20 5% 10%  
21 3% 5% Last Result
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.5% 0.7%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 157 8% 151–164 149–166 148–167 145–170
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 157 8% 151–164 149–166 148–167 145–170
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 141 0% 135–147 133–149 132–150 129–154
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 141 0% 135–147 133–149 132–150 129–154
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 114 0% 108–120 106–122 105–124 102–127
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 104 0% 98–110 96–112 95–113 92–116
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 104 0% 98–110 96–112 95–113 92–116
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 87 0% 82–93 80–95 79–96 76–99
Partidul Național Liberal 93 87 0% 82–93 80–95 79–96 76–99
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 53 0% 49–58 48–60 47–61 45–64

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0.1% 100%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.3% 99.7%  
146 0.6% 99.3%  
147 0.5% 98.8%  
148 1.4% 98%  
149 2% 97%  
150 2% 95%  
151 4% 93%  
152 5% 89%  
153 4% 84%  
154 7% 80%  
155 7% 73%  
156 6% 66%  
157 11% 59% Median
158 7% 49%  
159 6% 42%  
160 8% 36%  
161 7% 28%  
162 5% 21%  
163 5% 16%  
164 3% 11%  
165 3% 8% Majority
166 2% 5%  
167 1.1% 3%  
168 0.8% 2%  
169 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
170 0.3% 0.7%  
171 0.2% 0.4%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0.1% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0.1% 100%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.3% 99.7%  
146 0.6% 99.3%  
147 0.5% 98.7%  
148 1.4% 98%  
149 2% 97%  
150 2% 95%  
151 4% 93%  
152 5% 89%  
153 4% 84%  
154 7% 80%  
155 7% 73%  
156 6% 66%  
157 11% 59% Median
158 7% 49%  
159 6% 42%  
160 8% 36%  
161 7% 28%  
162 5% 21%  
163 5% 16%  
164 3% 11%  
165 3% 8% Majority
166 2% 5%  
167 1.1% 3%  
168 0.8% 2%  
169 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
170 0.3% 0.7%  
171 0.2% 0.4%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0.1% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.2% 99.7%  
129 0.3% 99.5%  
130 0.8% 99.2%  
131 0.9% 98%  
132 2% 98%  
133 2% 96%  
134 3% 94%  
135 4% 91%  
136 4% 86%  
137 5% 82%  
138 9% 77%  
139 7% 68%  
140 9% 62% Median
141 8% 53%  
142 7% 45%  
143 8% 38%  
144 6% 30%  
145 7% 24%  
146 5% 17%  
147 3% 12%  
148 3% 9% Last Result
149 2% 6%  
150 1.5% 4%  
151 0.9% 2%  
152 0.8% 2%  
153 0.3% 0.9%  
154 0.3% 0.6%  
155 0.1% 0.3%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.2% 99.7%  
129 0.3% 99.5%  
130 0.8% 99.2%  
131 0.9% 98%  
132 2% 98%  
133 2% 96%  
134 3% 94%  
135 4% 91%  
136 4% 86%  
137 5% 82%  
138 9% 77%  
139 7% 68%  
140 9% 62% Median
141 8% 53%  
142 7% 45%  
143 8% 38%  
144 6% 30%  
145 7% 24%  
146 5% 17%  
147 3% 12%  
148 3% 9% Last Result
149 2% 6%  
150 1.5% 4%  
151 0.9% 2%  
152 0.8% 2%  
153 0.3% 0.8%  
154 0.3% 0.6%  
155 0.1% 0.3%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.7%  
103 0.4% 99.3%  
104 0.8% 98.9%  
105 1.2% 98%  
106 2% 97%  
107 3% 95%  
108 3% 92%  
109 5% 89%  
110 6% 84% Last Result
111 8% 78%  
112 7% 71%  
113 7% 64%  
114 8% 57% Median
115 9% 48%  
116 7% 39%  
117 7% 32%  
118 6% 25%  
119 6% 19%  
120 4% 13%  
121 2% 9%  
122 2% 6%  
123 1.3% 4%  
124 1.2% 3%  
125 0.7% 2%  
126 0.3% 0.9%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.3% 99.7%  
93 0.6% 99.4%  
94 0.9% 98.8%  
95 1.2% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 3% 95%  
98 4% 92%  
99 4% 88%  
100 7% 83%  
101 6% 76%  
102 9% 70%  
103 9% 61%  
104 8% 53% Median
105 8% 44%  
106 7% 36%  
107 7% 30%  
108 6% 22%  
109 5% 16%  
110 3% 11%  
111 3% 8%  
112 2% 5%  
113 1.4% 3%  
114 0.8% 2% Last Result
115 0.5% 1.3%  
116 0.4% 0.8%  
117 0.2% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.3% 99.7%  
93 0.6% 99.4%  
94 0.9% 98.8%  
95 1.2% 98%  
96 2% 97%  
97 3% 95%  
98 4% 92%  
99 4% 88%  
100 7% 83%  
101 6% 76%  
102 9% 70%  
103 9% 61%  
104 8% 52% Median
105 8% 44%  
106 7% 36%  
107 7% 30%  
108 6% 22%  
109 5% 16%  
110 3% 11%  
111 3% 8%  
112 2% 5%  
113 1.4% 3%  
114 0.8% 2% Last Result
115 0.5% 1.3%  
116 0.4% 0.7%  
117 0.2% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 0.7% 99.4%  
78 0.9% 98.8%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 96%  
81 3% 94%  
82 5% 91%  
83 7% 86%  
84 7% 79%  
85 8% 73%  
86 7% 65%  
87 10% 58% Median
88 9% 47%  
89 8% 38%  
90 6% 30%  
91 7% 24%  
92 5% 17%  
93 4% 12% Last Result
94 3% 8%  
95 2% 5%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.2%  
99 0.3% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 0.7% 99.4%  
78 0.9% 98.8%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 96%  
81 3% 94%  
82 5% 91%  
83 7% 86%  
84 7% 79%  
85 8% 73%  
86 7% 65%  
87 10% 58% Median
88 9% 47%  
89 8% 38%  
90 6% 30%  
91 7% 24%  
92 5% 17%  
93 4% 12% Last Result
94 3% 8%  
95 2% 5%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.1%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 99.6%  
46 1.1% 98.7%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 95%  
49 6% 93%  
50 5% 86%  
51 10% 82%  
52 8% 72%  
53 15% 64% Median
54 8% 49%  
55 10% 41% Last Result
56 9% 31%  
57 8% 21%  
58 4% 14%  
59 4% 10%  
60 3% 6%  
61 1.4% 3%  
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.6% 1.2%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations