Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 15–17 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 33.9% 31.7–36.3% 31.1–36.9% 30.5–37.5% 29.5–38.6%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 23.9% 22.0–26.1% 21.4–26.7% 20.9–27.2% 20.0–28.3%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 16.1% 14.4–17.9% 13.9–18.5% 13.5–18.9% 12.8–19.9%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 13.9% 12.4–15.7% 11.9–16.2% 11.6–16.7% 10.9–17.6%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.1% 4.2–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.7–7.0% 3.3–7.6%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 3.0% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.5% 1.7–5.0%
PRO România 4.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 114 106–122 104–124 102–126 99–129
Partidul Național Liberal 93 80 74–87 72–89 70–91 67–94
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 54 48–60 46–62 45–63 43–66
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 47 41–53 40–54 39–56 36–59
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 17 14–21 13–22 12–23 11–25
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.6%  
100 0.4% 99.4%  
101 0.7% 99.0%  
102 0.8% 98%  
103 1.2% 97%  
104 2% 96%  
105 2% 95%  
106 3% 93%  
107 4% 90%  
108 4% 86%  
109 5% 82%  
110 5% 78% Last Result
111 7% 73%  
112 7% 66%  
113 6% 59%  
114 8% 53% Median
115 6% 46%  
116 6% 40%  
117 5% 33%  
118 6% 28%  
119 4% 22%  
120 4% 18%  
121 3% 14%  
122 2% 10%  
123 2% 8%  
124 2% 5%  
125 0.9% 4%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 0.7% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.1%  
129 0.3% 0.7%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.6%  
68 0.5% 99.3%  
69 0.8% 98.9%  
70 1.0% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 3% 93%  
74 4% 91%  
75 5% 87%  
76 5% 82%  
77 7% 77%  
78 7% 70%  
79 5% 63%  
80 9% 58% Median
81 9% 49%  
82 6% 40%  
83 5% 34%  
84 7% 29%  
85 5% 22%  
86 4% 17%  
87 4% 13%  
88 3% 9%  
89 2% 7%  
90 1.2% 5%  
91 1.3% 4%  
92 1.0% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.3% Last Result
94 0.4% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.5%  
44 0.8% 99.1%  
45 1.4% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 2% 95%  
48 4% 92%  
49 6% 88%  
50 6% 83%  
51 7% 77%  
52 9% 70%  
53 9% 61%  
54 8% 52% Median
55 9% 45% Last Result
56 8% 36%  
57 6% 28%  
58 5% 22%  
59 6% 17%  
60 4% 12%  
61 2% 8%  
62 2% 5%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.2%  
66 0.4% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.3% 99.7%  
37 0.8% 99.4%  
38 1.1% 98.6%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 96%  
41 4% 92%  
42 6% 89%  
43 6% 83%  
44 10% 77%  
45 9% 67%  
46 8% 58%  
47 10% 50% Median
48 8% 40%  
49 7% 32%  
50 5% 25%  
51 6% 20%  
52 3% 14%  
53 3% 10%  
54 3% 7%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.1% 3%  
57 0.6% 2%  
58 0.6% 1.1%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.3% 99.9%  
11 1.0% 99.6%  
12 3% 98.5%  
13 6% 96%  
14 10% 90%  
15 13% 80%  
16 14% 67%  
17 14% 53% Median
18 11% 38%  
19 8% 27%  
20 7% 19%  
21 5% 12% Last Result
22 3% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.9% 2%  
25 0.4% 0.7%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0% 0.5%  
7 0% 0.5%  
8 0% 0.5%  
9 0% 0.5%  
10 0% 0.5%  
11 0% 0.5%  
12 0% 0.5%  
13 0% 0.5%  
14 0% 0.5%  
15 0% 0.5%  
16 0.2% 0.5%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 151 2% 143–159 142–161 139–163 135–167
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 151 2% 143–159 141–161 139–163 135–167
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 134 0% 127–142 124–145 122–146 119–150
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 134 0% 126–142 124–144 122–146 119–150
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 114 0% 106–122 104–124 102–126 99–129
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 97 0% 90–105 88–107 86–109 83–113
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 97 0% 90–105 88–107 86–109 83–112
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 80 0% 74–87 72–90 70–92 67–95
Partidul Național Liberal 93 80 0% 74–87 72–89 70–91 67–94
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 54 0% 48–60 46–62 45–63 43–67

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.8%  
135 0.2% 99.7%  
136 0.2% 99.5%  
137 0.3% 99.3%  
138 0.6% 98.9%  
139 1.0% 98%  
140 0.9% 97%  
141 1.3% 96%  
142 2% 95%  
143 3% 93%  
144 3% 90%  
145 3% 87%  
146 4% 83%  
147 7% 79%  
148 5% 71%  
149 5% 67%  
150 7% 62%  
151 6% 55% Median
152 5% 49%  
153 7% 43%  
154 6% 37%  
155 5% 31%  
156 5% 26%  
157 4% 20%  
158 4% 16%  
159 3% 12%  
160 2% 9%  
161 2% 7%  
162 1.4% 5%  
163 0.8% 3%  
164 0.8% 2%  
165 0.6% 2% Majority
166 0.3% 1.0%  
167 0.3% 0.7%  
168 0.2% 0.4%  
169 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.8%  
135 0.2% 99.7%  
136 0.2% 99.4%  
137 0.3% 99.2%  
138 0.6% 98.9%  
139 1.0% 98%  
140 1.0% 97%  
141 1.3% 96%  
142 2% 95%  
143 3% 93%  
144 3% 89%  
145 3% 86%  
146 4% 83%  
147 7% 78%  
148 5% 71%  
149 5% 67%  
150 7% 61%  
151 6% 55% Median
152 5% 48%  
153 7% 43%  
154 6% 36%  
155 5% 31%  
156 5% 25%  
157 4% 20%  
158 4% 16%  
159 3% 12%  
160 2% 9%  
161 2% 7%  
162 1.4% 5%  
163 0.8% 3%  
164 0.8% 2%  
165 0.6% 2% Majority
166 0.3% 1.0%  
167 0.2% 0.6%  
168 0.2% 0.4%  
169 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
170 0.1% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.7%  
119 0.3% 99.6%  
120 0.3% 99.3%  
121 0.6% 99.0%  
122 0.9% 98%  
123 1.2% 97%  
124 1.5% 96%  
125 2% 95%  
126 3% 93%  
127 3% 90%  
128 4% 87%  
129 4% 83%  
130 6% 79%  
131 6% 74%  
132 6% 68%  
133 7% 62%  
134 5% 55% Median
135 6% 50%  
136 7% 44%  
137 6% 37%  
138 6% 32%  
139 4% 25%  
140 4% 21%  
141 4% 17%  
142 3% 13%  
143 3% 9%  
144 2% 7%  
145 1.5% 5%  
146 1.1% 4%  
147 0.9% 2%  
148 0.6% 2% Last Result
149 0.4% 1.0%  
150 0.2% 0.6%  
151 0.2% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.3% 99.6%  
120 0.3% 99.2%  
121 0.6% 98.9%  
122 0.9% 98%  
123 1.3% 97%  
124 2% 96%  
125 2% 95%  
126 3% 93%  
127 3% 90%  
128 4% 87%  
129 4% 83%  
130 6% 79%  
131 6% 73%  
132 6% 67%  
133 7% 62%  
134 5% 55% Median
135 6% 49%  
136 7% 44%  
137 6% 37%  
138 6% 31%  
139 4% 25%  
140 4% 20%  
141 4% 16%  
142 3% 13%  
143 3% 9%  
144 2% 6%  
145 1.5% 5%  
146 1.0% 3%  
147 0.9% 2%  
148 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
149 0.3% 0.9%  
150 0.2% 0.6%  
151 0.2% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.6%  
100 0.4% 99.4%  
101 0.7% 99.0%  
102 0.8% 98%  
103 1.2% 97%  
104 2% 96%  
105 2% 95%  
106 3% 93%  
107 4% 90%  
108 4% 86%  
109 5% 82%  
110 5% 78% Last Result
111 7% 73%  
112 7% 66%  
113 6% 59%  
114 8% 53% Median
115 6% 46%  
116 6% 40%  
117 5% 33%  
118 6% 28%  
119 4% 22%  
120 4% 18%  
121 3% 14%  
122 2% 10%  
123 2% 8%  
124 2% 5%  
125 0.9% 4%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 0.7% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.1%  
129 0.3% 0.7%  
130 0.2% 0.5%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.6%  
84 0.5% 99.4%  
85 0.5% 98.9%  
86 0.9% 98%  
87 1.3% 97%  
88 1.5% 96%  
89 2% 95%  
90 3% 92%  
91 5% 89%  
92 4% 85%  
93 5% 81%  
94 7% 75%  
95 6% 68%  
96 7% 63%  
97 6% 56% Median
98 7% 49%  
99 6% 42%  
100 6% 36%  
101 6% 29%  
102 6% 24%  
103 4% 18%  
104 3% 14%  
105 3% 11%  
106 2% 8%  
107 2% 6%  
108 1.3% 4%  
109 1.0% 3%  
110 0.6% 2%  
111 0.4% 1.3%  
112 0.3% 0.8%  
113 0.2% 0.5%  
114 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.6%  
84 0.5% 99.4%  
85 0.5% 98.9%  
86 1.0% 98%  
87 1.3% 97%  
88 1.5% 96%  
89 2% 95%  
90 3% 92%  
91 5% 89%  
92 4% 84%  
93 5% 81%  
94 7% 75%  
95 6% 68%  
96 7% 62%  
97 6% 55% Median
98 7% 49%  
99 6% 42%  
100 6% 35%  
101 6% 29%  
102 6% 23%  
103 4% 18%  
104 3% 14%  
105 3% 10%  
106 2% 8%  
107 2% 6%  
108 1.3% 4%  
109 0.9% 3%  
110 0.6% 2%  
111 0.4% 1.1%  
112 0.3% 0.7%  
113 0.1% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.6%  
68 0.5% 99.4%  
69 0.8% 98.9%  
70 1.0% 98%  
71 1.5% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 3% 94%  
74 4% 91%  
75 4% 87%  
76 5% 83%  
77 7% 77%  
78 7% 70%  
79 5% 63%  
80 9% 58% Median
81 9% 49%  
82 6% 41%  
83 5% 35%  
84 7% 29%  
85 5% 22%  
86 4% 17%  
87 4% 13%  
88 3% 10%  
89 2% 7%  
90 1.2% 5%  
91 1.3% 4%  
92 1.1% 3%  
93 0.4% 2% Last Result
94 0.5% 1.1%  
95 0.2% 0.7%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.6%  
68 0.5% 99.3%  
69 0.8% 98.9%  
70 1.0% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 3% 93%  
74 4% 91%  
75 5% 87%  
76 5% 82%  
77 7% 77%  
78 7% 70%  
79 5% 63%  
80 9% 58% Median
81 9% 49%  
82 6% 40%  
83 5% 34%  
84 7% 29%  
85 5% 22%  
86 4% 17%  
87 4% 13%  
88 3% 9%  
89 2% 7%  
90 1.2% 5%  
91 1.3% 4%  
92 1.0% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.3% Last Result
94 0.4% 0.9%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.5%  
44 0.8% 99.1%  
45 1.4% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 2% 95%  
48 4% 92%  
49 5% 88%  
50 6% 83%  
51 7% 77%  
52 9% 71%  
53 9% 61%  
54 8% 53% Median
55 9% 45% Last Result
56 8% 36%  
57 6% 29%  
58 5% 23%  
59 6% 18%  
60 4% 12%  
61 2% 8%  
62 2% 6%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations