Opinion Poll by INSOMAR for Realitatea.net, 9–11 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 28.0% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.3% 25.3–30.8% 24.5–31.7%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 27.0% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.3% 24.4–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.3–19.2%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.2% 11.4–17.0%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.8%
PRO România 4.1% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 95 88–102 87–105 86–107 83–108
Partidul Național Liberal 93 93 85–100 83–102 81–102 79–105
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 54 50–59 48–62 47–63 45–66
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 47 43–53 42–54 40–55 38–58
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 20 17–24 16–25 16–26 14–28
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0–17 0–17 0–19
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.4% 99.6%  
84 0.5% 99.1%  
85 0.5% 98.6%  
86 1.3% 98%  
87 3% 97%  
88 5% 94%  
89 2% 89%  
90 4% 87%  
91 4% 83%  
92 6% 79%  
93 3% 73%  
94 12% 69%  
95 9% 57% Median
96 6% 49%  
97 5% 43%  
98 6% 38%  
99 6% 32%  
100 5% 26%  
101 10% 21%  
102 3% 11%  
103 2% 8%  
104 0.8% 6%  
105 2% 5%  
106 0.9% 4%  
107 1.3% 3%  
108 1.1% 1.4%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.2% Last Result
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.7%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.3% 99.3%  
81 2% 99.0%  
82 0.4% 97%  
83 2% 97%  
84 1.2% 94%  
85 4% 93%  
86 5% 89%  
87 2% 84%  
88 8% 82%  
89 3% 74%  
90 11% 71%  
91 6% 61%  
92 4% 55%  
93 13% 51% Last Result, Median
94 3% 38%  
95 7% 35%  
96 4% 28%  
97 5% 23%  
98 6% 18%  
99 0.9% 12%  
100 5% 11%  
101 0.9% 6%  
102 3% 5%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.4% 1.4%  
105 0.5% 1.0%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.3% 99.6%  
46 1.3% 99.3%  
47 2% 98%  
48 2% 96%  
49 3% 94%  
50 6% 91%  
51 5% 85%  
52 7% 80%  
53 6% 73%  
54 17% 67% Median
55 8% 49%  
56 6% 41%  
57 13% 35%  
58 7% 22%  
59 6% 15%  
60 2% 9%  
61 2% 7%  
62 2% 5%  
63 0.8% 3%  
64 1.0% 2%  
65 0.7% 1.3%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 0.8% 99.4%  
40 1.4% 98.6%  
41 1.2% 97%  
42 5% 96%  
43 8% 91%  
44 7% 84%  
45 8% 76%  
46 9% 69%  
47 12% 60% Median
48 12% 48%  
49 9% 36%  
50 7% 27%  
51 3% 20%  
52 6% 17%  
53 4% 11%  
54 3% 7%  
55 2% 4% Last Result
56 0.5% 2%  
57 0.7% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.9%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.5%  
16 3% 98%  
17 8% 95%  
18 11% 87%  
19 17% 76%  
20 10% 58% Median
21 19% 48% Last Result
22 9% 29%  
23 9% 21%  
24 7% 12%  
25 2% 6%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.5% 1.2%  
28 0.5% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0% 8%  
7 0% 8%  
8 0% 8%  
9 0% 8%  
10 0% 8%  
11 0% 8%  
12 0% 8%  
13 0% 8%  
14 0% 8%  
15 0% 8%  
16 2% 8%  
17 5% 6%  
18 1.1% 2%  
19 0.6% 0.9%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 161 34% 155–170 152–172 151–173 148–176
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 161 27% 152–168 150–171 148–172 143–173
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 141 0% 133–149 132–150 131–152 129–157
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 140 0% 132–148 130–149 129–151 125–154
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 114 0% 107–122 105–124 102–125 100–131
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 113 0% 105–121 103–122 101–124 98–126
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 95 0% 88–102 87–105 86–107 83–108
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 93 0% 86–102 85–103 83–105 81–111
Partidul Național Liberal 93 93 0% 85–100 83–102 81–102 79–105
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 48 0% 43–56 42–61 41–63 39–68

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.3% 99.8%  
148 0.1% 99.5%  
149 0.1% 99.4%  
150 0.6% 99.3%  
151 2% 98.7%  
152 3% 97%  
153 2% 94%  
154 1.3% 92%  
155 3% 91%  
156 6% 88%  
157 14% 81%  
158 3% 67%  
159 0.8% 64%  
160 4% 63% Median
161 13% 59%  
162 7% 46%  
163 3% 39%  
164 2% 35%  
165 4% 34% Majority
166 8% 29%  
167 7% 21%  
168 2% 14%  
169 0.7% 12% Last Result
170 3% 11%  
171 3% 8%  
172 3% 5%  
173 1.0% 3%  
174 0.3% 2%  
175 0.4% 1.3%  
176 0.4% 0.9%  
177 0.1% 0.5%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0.2% 99.9%  
143 0.3% 99.8%  
144 0.3% 99.5%  
145 0.1% 99.2%  
146 0.4% 99.1%  
147 0.8% 98.7%  
148 2% 98%  
149 1.1% 96%  
150 0.8% 95%  
151 2% 94%  
152 3% 92%  
153 4% 89%  
154 1.4% 85%  
155 3% 84%  
156 7% 81%  
157 14% 74%  
158 3% 60%  
159 1.1% 56%  
160 4% 55% Median
161 13% 52%  
162 7% 38%  
163 3% 31%  
164 1.0% 28%  
165 4% 27% Majority
166 6% 24%  
167 7% 17%  
168 2% 10%  
169 0.5% 8% Last Result
170 0.6% 7%  
171 3% 7%  
172 2% 4%  
173 0.8% 1.2%  
174 0.1% 0.4%  
175 0% 0.3%  
176 0.2% 0.3%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0.1% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.1% 99.6%  
129 0.9% 99.5%  
130 0.9% 98.6%  
131 2% 98%  
132 2% 95%  
133 4% 94%  
134 3% 89%  
135 2% 86%  
136 5% 84%  
137 2% 79%  
138 10% 77%  
139 7% 67%  
140 9% 60% Median
141 4% 51%  
142 10% 47%  
143 5% 37%  
144 4% 32%  
145 4% 29%  
146 3% 24%  
147 7% 22%  
148 2% 14% Last Result
149 6% 12%  
150 1.2% 6%  
151 0.9% 5%  
152 2% 4%  
153 0.3% 2%  
154 0.5% 2%  
155 0.4% 1.3%  
156 0.3% 0.9%  
157 0.2% 0.6%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0.3% 99.6%  
126 0.4% 99.3%  
127 0.2% 98.8%  
128 0.6% 98.6%  
129 1.2% 98%  
130 3% 97%  
131 3% 94%  
132 4% 91%  
133 5% 87%  
134 3% 82%  
135 2% 79%  
136 6% 77%  
137 2% 71%  
138 10% 70%  
139 7% 60%  
140 9% 52% Median
141 4% 44%  
142 10% 40%  
143 5% 30%  
144 4% 25%  
145 4% 21%  
146 2% 18%  
147 6% 16%  
148 2% 10% Last Result
149 4% 8%  
150 1.0% 4%  
151 0.6% 3%  
152 1.5% 2%  
153 0.2% 1.0%  
154 0.4% 0.8%  
155 0.1% 0.4%  
156 0.2% 0.3%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0.1% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.7% 99.7%  
101 0.9% 99.1%  
102 0.8% 98%  
103 1.4% 97%  
104 0.8% 96%  
105 3% 95%  
106 1.3% 92%  
107 3% 91%  
108 2% 88%  
109 11% 86%  
110 5% 74%  
111 4% 69%  
112 7% 65%  
113 6% 59% Median
114 11% 53% Last Result
115 3% 42%  
116 7% 39%  
117 5% 32%  
118 4% 28%  
119 3% 24%  
120 3% 21%  
121 4% 17%  
122 5% 13%  
123 1.5% 8%  
124 2% 7%  
125 2% 4%  
126 0.5% 2%  
127 0.4% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.4%  
129 0.2% 1.0%  
130 0.3% 0.8%  
131 0.2% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0.1% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.4% 99.8%  
99 0.7% 99.4%  
100 1.0% 98.7%  
101 1.2% 98%  
102 1.1% 96%  
103 2% 95%  
104 1.0% 94%  
105 4% 93%  
106 3% 89%  
107 5% 86%  
108 2% 81%  
109 12% 79%  
110 5% 67%  
111 4% 62%  
112 7% 58%  
113 6% 51% Median
114 11% 45% Last Result
115 3% 34%  
116 6% 32%  
117 5% 25%  
118 4% 21%  
119 3% 17%  
120 3% 14%  
121 4% 11%  
122 4% 8%  
123 1.3% 4%  
124 0.4% 3%  
125 2% 2%  
126 0.3% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.4% 99.6%  
84 0.5% 99.1%  
85 0.5% 98.6%  
86 1.3% 98%  
87 3% 97%  
88 5% 94%  
89 2% 89%  
90 4% 87%  
91 4% 83%  
92 6% 79%  
93 3% 73%  
94 12% 69%  
95 9% 57% Median
96 6% 49%  
97 5% 43%  
98 6% 38%  
99 6% 32%  
100 5% 26%  
101 10% 21%  
102 3% 11%  
103 2% 8%  
104 0.8% 6%  
105 2% 5%  
106 0.9% 4%  
107 1.3% 3%  
108 1.1% 1.4%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0% 0.2% Last Result
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.7%  
81 1.1% 99.5%  
82 0.3% 98%  
83 2% 98%  
84 0.9% 96%  
85 4% 95%  
86 2% 91%  
87 2% 89%  
88 7% 88%  
89 3% 81%  
90 10% 78%  
91 6% 68%  
92 3% 62%  
93 13% 59% Last Result, Median
94 3% 46%  
95 7% 43%  
96 4% 36%  
97 5% 31%  
98 7% 26%  
99 0.9% 19%  
100 6% 18%  
101 1.2% 13%  
102 3% 11%  
103 4% 8%  
104 2% 5%  
105 0.7% 3%  
106 0.6% 2%  
107 0.3% 2%  
108 0.3% 1.3%  
109 0.3% 1.0%  
110 0.1% 0.7%  
111 0.2% 0.5%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.7%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.3% 99.3%  
81 2% 99.0%  
82 0.4% 97%  
83 2% 97%  
84 1.2% 94%  
85 4% 93%  
86 5% 89%  
87 2% 84%  
88 8% 82%  
89 3% 74%  
90 11% 71%  
91 6% 61%  
92 4% 55%  
93 13% 51% Last Result, Median
94 3% 38%  
95 7% 35%  
96 4% 28%  
97 5% 23%  
98 6% 18%  
99 0.9% 12%  
100 5% 11%  
101 0.9% 6%  
102 3% 5%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.4% 1.4%  
105 0.5% 1.0%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.5%  
40 1.1% 98.8%  
41 0.9% 98%  
42 3% 97%  
43 7% 93%  
44 6% 86%  
45 7% 80%  
46 6% 73%  
47 12% 66% Median
48 12% 54%  
49 8% 43%  
50 7% 35%  
51 3% 28%  
52 6% 25%  
53 4% 19%  
54 3% 15%  
55 2% 12% Last Result
56 0.7% 10%  
57 1.0% 10%  
58 1.5% 9%  
59 0.4% 7%  
60 0.7% 7%  
61 1.1% 6%  
62 0.4% 5%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.4% 2%  
65 0.4% 2%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.7%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations