Opinion Poll by INSCOP, 1–12 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 30.6% 28.9–32.5% 28.4–33.0% 28.0–33.4% 27.2–34.3%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 26.3% 24.6–28.0% 24.2–28.5% 23.7–29.0% 23.0–29.8%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 15.3% 13.9–16.8% 13.6–17.2% 13.3–17.5% 12.7–18.3%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 14.2% 12.9–15.6% 12.5–16.0% 12.2–16.4% 11.7–17.1%
PRO România 4.1% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.6%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 3.8% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–4.9% 2.8–5.1% 2.5–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 108 101–116 98–118 97–119 94–123
Partidul Național Liberal 93 92 86–99 84–102 82–104 80–106
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 54 49–59 47–61 46–62 44–64
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 50 45–55 43–56 43–58 40–60
PRO România 0 0 0–19 0–20 0–21 0–22
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0–17 0–19

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.5% 99.5%  
95 0.8% 99.0%  
96 0.5% 98%  
97 2% 98%  
98 1.1% 96%  
99 1.1% 95%  
100 2% 94%  
101 3% 91%  
102 4% 88%  
103 8% 85%  
104 7% 77%  
105 6% 69%  
106 6% 63%  
107 5% 58%  
108 5% 53% Median
109 6% 48%  
110 8% 42% Last Result
111 8% 34%  
112 5% 26%  
113 4% 21%  
114 3% 17%  
115 3% 14%  
116 2% 11%  
117 4% 9%  
118 1.1% 5%  
119 2% 4%  
120 1.3% 2%  
121 0.4% 1.1%  
122 0.1% 0.7%  
123 0.1% 0.5%  
124 0.2% 0.4%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.2% 99.7%  
80 0.4% 99.5%  
81 1.0% 99.1%  
82 2% 98%  
83 1.3% 97%  
84 1.1% 95%  
85 3% 94%  
86 3% 92%  
87 3% 88%  
88 2% 86%  
89 5% 83%  
90 14% 79%  
91 7% 64%  
92 7% 57% Median
93 6% 50% Last Result
94 8% 44%  
95 8% 36%  
96 5% 28%  
97 5% 22%  
98 4% 18%  
99 4% 13%  
100 2% 10%  
101 2% 8%  
102 1.2% 6%  
103 2% 5%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.5% 1.1%  
106 0.2% 0.6%  
107 0.1% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.5% 99.6%  
45 0.9% 99.1%  
46 1.3% 98%  
47 3% 97%  
48 3% 94%  
49 5% 91%  
50 5% 85%  
51 9% 80%  
52 13% 71%  
53 8% 59%  
54 9% 50% Median
55 9% 42%  
56 6% 33%  
57 4% 26%  
58 9% 22%  
59 3% 13%  
60 4% 10%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.4% 3%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.8% 1.2%  
65 0.1% 0.5%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 0.9% 99.4%  
42 0.8% 98.5%  
43 4% 98%  
44 3% 94%  
45 2% 91%  
46 7% 89%  
47 7% 81%  
48 4% 74%  
49 13% 70%  
50 20% 57% Median
51 4% 37%  
52 8% 33%  
53 8% 25%  
54 2% 16%  
55 6% 14% Last Result
56 4% 9%  
57 0.8% 4%  
58 1.4% 4%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.5%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 38%  
2 0% 38%  
3 0% 38%  
4 0% 38%  
5 0% 38%  
6 0% 38%  
7 0% 38%  
8 0% 38%  
9 0% 38%  
10 0% 38%  
11 0% 38%  
12 0% 38%  
13 0% 38%  
14 0% 38%  
15 0% 38%  
16 0.2% 38%  
17 14% 38%  
18 10% 23%  
19 7% 13%  
20 3% 6%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.6% 1.0%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0% 3%  
9 0% 3%  
10 0% 3%  
11 0% 3%  
12 0% 3%  
13 0% 3%  
14 0% 3%  
15 0% 3%  
16 0.4% 3%  
17 1.2% 3%  
18 1.0% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 143 0.1% 135–152 132–154 130–155 127–161
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 143 0% 134–151 132–153 130–155 126–159
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 114 0% 105–125 104–127 102–128 98–133
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 93 0% 86–101 84–104 82–105 80–111
Partidul Național Liberal 93 92 0% 86–99 84–102 82–104 80–106
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 50 0% 45–56 43–59 43–62 41–69

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.8%  
127 0.3% 99.7%  
128 0.2% 99.4%  
129 1.2% 99.2%  
130 1.0% 98%  
131 0.5% 97%  
132 2% 97%  
133 2% 95%  
134 2% 92%  
135 2% 90%  
136 2% 88%  
137 3% 86%  
138 3% 83%  
139 5% 80%  
140 13% 76%  
141 4% 63%  
142 4% 59% Median
143 9% 55%  
144 7% 46%  
145 4% 39%  
146 6% 35%  
147 4% 29%  
148 2% 25% Last Result
149 5% 23%  
150 2% 18%  
151 4% 15%  
152 2% 12%  
153 4% 9%  
154 0.8% 6%  
155 3% 5%  
156 0.4% 2%  
157 0.7% 2%  
158 0.2% 1.3%  
159 0.4% 1.1%  
160 0.2% 0.7%  
161 0.1% 0.5%  
162 0.2% 0.4%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1% Majority
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0.1% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.2% 99.8%  
126 0.2% 99.6%  
127 0.4% 99.5%  
128 0.3% 99.1%  
129 1.2% 98.8%  
130 1.0% 98%  
131 0.8% 97%  
132 2% 96%  
133 3% 94%  
134 2% 91%  
135 2% 89%  
136 2% 87%  
137 3% 84%  
138 3% 81%  
139 5% 78%  
140 13% 73%  
141 4% 60%  
142 4% 56% Median
143 9% 52%  
144 7% 43%  
145 4% 37%  
146 6% 32%  
147 4% 27%  
148 2% 22% Last Result
149 5% 21%  
150 2% 16%  
151 3% 13%  
152 2% 10%  
153 3% 8%  
154 0.8% 5%  
155 2% 4%  
156 0.3% 2%  
157 0.6% 1.3%  
158 0.1% 0.7%  
159 0.3% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.3% 99.5%  
100 0.3% 99.1%  
101 0.6% 98.8%  
102 0.7% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 2% 96%  
105 5% 93%  
106 3% 88%  
107 3% 86%  
108 4% 83% Median
109 3% 79%  
110 6% 75% Last Result
111 7% 69%  
112 5% 62%  
113 5% 57%  
114 4% 52%  
115 3% 48%  
116 2% 46%  
117 4% 43%  
118 2% 39%  
119 5% 37%  
120 9% 32%  
121 6% 23%  
122 1.4% 17%  
123 1.1% 16%  
124 1.2% 15%  
125 4% 13%  
126 3% 10%  
127 1.5% 6%  
128 2% 5%  
129 0.7% 2%  
130 0.2% 2%  
131 0.3% 2%  
132 0.4% 1.3%  
133 0.6% 0.9%  
134 0.2% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.7%  
81 0.9% 99.3%  
82 2% 98%  
83 1.0% 97%  
84 1.1% 96%  
85 2% 95%  
86 3% 92%  
87 2% 89%  
88 2% 87%  
89 5% 85%  
90 14% 81%  
91 7% 66%  
92 7% 59% Median
93 6% 52% Last Result
94 8% 47%  
95 8% 38%  
96 5% 30%  
97 5% 25%  
98 5% 21%  
99 4% 16%  
100 2% 13%  
101 2% 11%  
102 1.4% 8%  
103 2% 7%  
104 2% 5%  
105 0.7% 3%  
106 0.6% 2%  
107 0.3% 2%  
108 0.2% 1.2%  
109 0.4% 1.0%  
110 0.1% 0.7%  
111 0.2% 0.6%  
112 0% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.2% 99.7%  
80 0.4% 99.5%  
81 1.0% 99.1%  
82 2% 98%  
83 1.3% 97%  
84 1.1% 95%  
85 3% 94%  
86 3% 92%  
87 3% 88%  
88 2% 86%  
89 5% 83%  
90 14% 79%  
91 7% 64%  
92 7% 57% Median
93 6% 50% Last Result
94 8% 44%  
95 8% 36%  
96 5% 28%  
97 5% 22%  
98 4% 18%  
99 4% 13%  
100 2% 10%  
101 2% 8%  
102 1.2% 6%  
103 2% 5%  
104 2% 3%  
105 0.5% 1.1%  
106 0.2% 0.6%  
107 0.1% 0.4%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.9% 99.6%  
42 0.7% 98.7%  
43 3% 98%  
44 3% 95%  
45 2% 92%  
46 7% 90%  
47 7% 83%  
48 4% 76%  
49 12% 72%  
50 20% 60% Median
51 4% 40%  
52 8% 36%  
53 8% 28%  
54 2% 19%  
55 6% 17% Last Result
56 4% 12%  
57 0.8% 7%  
58 1.4% 7%  
59 1.3% 5%  
60 0.9% 4%  
61 0.4% 3%  
62 0.2% 3%  
63 0.4% 2%  
64 0.3% 2%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 0.1% 1.2%  
67 0.2% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.9%  
69 0.2% 0.6%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations