Opinion Poll by Sociopol, 12–28 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 35.1% 33.0–37.2% 32.4–37.8% 31.9–38.3% 31.0–39.3%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 26.0% 24.2–28.0% 23.6–28.5% 23.2–29.0% 22.3–30.0%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 17.0% 15.4–18.7% 15.0–19.2% 14.6–19.6% 13.9–20.4%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 12.0% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–14.0% 10.0–14.4% 9.4–15.1%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.1%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.3% 1.8–4.8%
PRO România 4.1% 1.9% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.0–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 116 109–123 108–126 106–127 103–131
Partidul Național Liberal 93 87 80–93 79–94 77–95 74–100
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 55 52–62 48–62 48–63 46–68
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 40 35–44 33–46 33–47 31–50
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 13 10–16 10–17 9–18 8–20
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.3% 99.5%  
105 0.9% 99.2%  
106 1.1% 98%  
107 0.9% 97%  
108 4% 96%  
109 2% 92%  
110 2% 90% Last Result
111 2% 87%  
112 5% 85%  
113 7% 80%  
114 5% 73%  
115 6% 68%  
116 14% 62% Median
117 7% 48%  
118 7% 40%  
119 6% 34%  
120 3% 27%  
121 6% 25%  
122 4% 18%  
123 6% 14%  
124 1.2% 9%  
125 1.5% 7%  
126 1.4% 6%  
127 3% 5%  
128 0.4% 2%  
129 0.2% 1.1%  
130 0.3% 0.9%  
131 0.3% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 0.8% 99.1%  
76 0.7% 98%  
77 0.4% 98%  
78 1.3% 97%  
79 2% 96%  
80 8% 94%  
81 5% 86%  
82 9% 81%  
83 3% 71%  
84 4% 69%  
85 5% 65%  
86 6% 59%  
87 16% 53% Median
88 8% 37%  
89 6% 29%  
90 8% 23%  
91 2% 15%  
92 1.4% 13%  
93 2% 12% Last Result
94 5% 10%  
95 3% 5%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.3% 1.1%  
98 0.1% 0.8%  
99 0.1% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.8%  
47 1.5% 99.1%  
48 3% 98%  
49 2% 94%  
50 0.6% 92%  
51 0.6% 92%  
52 3% 91%  
53 7% 88%  
54 18% 81%  
55 20% 63% Last Result, Median
56 5% 43%  
57 1.3% 38%  
58 2% 37%  
59 4% 34%  
60 10% 30%  
61 10% 21%  
62 7% 11%  
63 1.3% 4%  
64 0.1% 2%  
65 0.2% 2%  
66 0.4% 2%  
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 0.9% 99.5%  
33 4% 98.6% Last Result
34 4% 94%  
35 2% 90%  
36 8% 88%  
37 6% 79%  
38 5% 73%  
39 16% 68%  
40 13% 52% Median
41 12% 39%  
42 8% 27%  
43 4% 20%  
44 7% 16%  
45 2% 9%  
46 3% 7%  
47 1.4% 4%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 1.3%  
50 0.4% 0.8%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 0.5% 99.7%  
9 3% 99.2%  
10 8% 97%  
11 15% 88%  
12 9% 73%  
13 21% 64% Median
14 16% 43%  
15 8% 28%  
16 13% 20%  
17 4% 7%  
18 1.4% 3%  
19 1.1% 2%  
20 0.6% 0.8%  
21 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.2%  
10 0% 0.2%  
11 0% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.2%  
14 0% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 156 4% 149–163 147–164 146–166 142–170
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 156 4% 148–163 147–164 146–166 142–170
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 142 0% 135–149 134–152 132–154 128–156
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 142 0% 135–149 134–152 132–154 128–156
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 116 0% 109–123 108–126 106–127 103–131
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 100 0% 93–106 90–108 90–109 87–113
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 100 0% 93–106 90–108 90–109 87–113
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 87 0% 80–93 79–94 77–95 74–100
Partidul Național Liberal 93 87 0% 80–93 79–94 77–95 74–100
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 55 0% 52–62 48–62 48–65 46–68

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.7%  
142 0.4% 99.6%  
143 0.3% 99.2%  
144 0.3% 98.9%  
145 0.7% 98.5%  
146 2% 98%  
147 1.1% 95%  
148 4% 94%  
149 4% 90%  
150 8% 86%  
151 6% 79%  
152 4% 73%  
153 2% 69%  
154 6% 66%  
155 5% 60% Median
156 11% 55%  
157 8% 45%  
158 4% 36%  
159 6% 32%  
160 4% 26%  
161 5% 22%  
162 6% 17%  
163 5% 11%  
164 2% 6%  
165 0.9% 4% Majority
166 1.1% 3%  
167 0.7% 2%  
168 0.2% 1.0%  
169 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
170 0.2% 0.6%  
171 0.1% 0.4%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0.1% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.8%  
141 0.1% 99.7%  
142 0.4% 99.6%  
143 0.4% 99.2%  
144 0.3% 98.8%  
145 0.7% 98%  
146 2% 98%  
147 1.1% 95%  
148 4% 94%  
149 4% 90%  
150 8% 86%  
151 6% 78%  
152 4% 72%  
153 2% 69%  
154 6% 66%  
155 5% 60% Median
156 11% 55%  
157 8% 44%  
158 4% 36%  
159 6% 32%  
160 4% 26%  
161 5% 22%  
162 6% 17%  
163 5% 11%  
164 2% 6%  
165 0.9% 4% Majority
166 1.1% 3%  
167 0.7% 2%  
168 0.2% 1.0%  
169 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
170 0.2% 0.5%  
171 0.1% 0.4%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0.1% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0.3% 99.8%  
129 0.4% 99.4%  
130 0.3% 99.0%  
131 0.6% 98.8%  
132 1.0% 98%  
133 0.7% 97%  
134 3% 96%  
135 5% 93%  
136 3% 88%  
137 6% 85%  
138 5% 80%  
139 3% 75%  
140 5% 71%  
141 14% 66%  
142 3% 52% Median
143 7% 49%  
144 5% 42%  
145 7% 37%  
146 3% 29%  
147 8% 26%  
148 5% 18% Last Result
149 5% 12%  
150 1.4% 7%  
151 0.4% 6%  
152 1.3% 6%  
153 1.3% 4%  
154 1.3% 3%  
155 0.9% 2%  
156 0.4% 0.8%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.3% 99.7%  
129 0.4% 99.4%  
130 0.3% 99.0%  
131 0.6% 98.7%  
132 1.0% 98%  
133 0.7% 97%  
134 3% 96%  
135 5% 93%  
136 3% 88%  
137 6% 85%  
138 5% 79%  
139 3% 74%  
140 5% 71%  
141 14% 66%  
142 3% 52% Median
143 7% 49%  
144 5% 41%  
145 7% 37%  
146 3% 29%  
147 8% 26%  
148 5% 18% Last Result
149 5% 12%  
150 1.4% 7%  
151 0.4% 6%  
152 1.3% 6%  
153 1.3% 4%  
154 1.3% 3%  
155 0.9% 2%  
156 0.4% 0.8%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.3% 99.5%  
105 0.9% 99.2%  
106 1.1% 98%  
107 0.9% 97%  
108 4% 96%  
109 2% 92%  
110 2% 90% Last Result
111 2% 87%  
112 5% 85%  
113 7% 80%  
114 5% 73%  
115 6% 68%  
116 14% 62% Median
117 7% 48%  
118 7% 40%  
119 6% 34%  
120 3% 27%  
121 6% 25%  
122 4% 18%  
123 6% 14%  
124 1.2% 9%  
125 1.5% 7%  
126 1.4% 6%  
127 3% 5%  
128 0.4% 2%  
129 0.2% 1.1%  
130 0.3% 0.9%  
131 0.3% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.2% 99.6%  
88 0.4% 99.4%  
89 1.0% 99.0%  
90 3% 98%  
91 2% 95%  
92 3% 93%  
93 5% 90%  
94 3% 85%  
95 8% 82%  
96 3% 74%  
97 5% 71%  
98 6% 66%  
99 6% 60%  
100 7% 54% Median
101 12% 47%  
102 7% 36%  
103 11% 28%  
104 4% 17%  
105 1.3% 13%  
106 4% 12%  
107 1.0% 7%  
108 2% 6%  
109 2% 4%  
110 0.6% 2%  
111 1.0% 2%  
112 0.1% 0.8%  
113 0.4% 0.7%  
114 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.2% 99.6%  
88 0.4% 99.4%  
89 1.0% 99.0%  
90 3% 98%  
91 2% 95%  
92 3% 93%  
93 5% 90%  
94 3% 85%  
95 8% 82%  
96 3% 74%  
97 5% 71%  
98 6% 66%  
99 6% 60%  
100 7% 54% Median
101 12% 47%  
102 7% 35%  
103 11% 28%  
104 4% 17%  
105 1.3% 13%  
106 4% 11%  
107 1.0% 7%  
108 2% 6%  
109 2% 4%  
110 0.6% 2%  
111 1.0% 2%  
112 0.1% 0.8%  
113 0.3% 0.7%  
114 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 0.7% 99.1%  
76 0.7% 98%  
77 0.4% 98%  
78 1.3% 97%  
79 2% 96%  
80 8% 94%  
81 5% 86%  
82 9% 81%  
83 3% 72%  
84 4% 69%  
85 5% 65%  
86 6% 60%  
87 16% 53% Median
88 8% 37%  
89 6% 29%  
90 8% 23%  
91 2% 15%  
92 1.4% 13%  
93 2% 12% Last Result
94 5% 10%  
95 3% 5%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.3% 1.2%  
98 0.1% 0.9%  
99 0.2% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.6%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 0.8% 99.1%  
76 0.7% 98%  
77 0.4% 98%  
78 1.3% 97%  
79 2% 96%  
80 8% 94%  
81 5% 86%  
82 9% 81%  
83 3% 71%  
84 4% 69%  
85 5% 65%  
86 6% 59%  
87 16% 53% Median
88 8% 37%  
89 6% 29%  
90 8% 23%  
91 2% 15%  
92 1.4% 13%  
93 2% 12% Last Result
94 5% 10%  
95 3% 5%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.3% 1.1%  
98 0.1% 0.8%  
99 0.1% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.8%  
47 1.5% 99.1%  
48 3% 98%  
49 2% 94%  
50 0.5% 92%  
51 0.5% 92%  
52 3% 91%  
53 7% 89%  
54 18% 81%  
55 20% 63% Last Result, Median
56 5% 43%  
57 1.3% 38%  
58 2% 37%  
59 4% 34%  
60 10% 31%  
61 10% 21%  
62 7% 11%  
63 1.3% 4%  
64 0.1% 3%  
65 0.2% 3%  
66 0.4% 2%  
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.9%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations