Opinion Poll by BCS, 30 March–11 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 28.9% 27.4–30.5% 27.0–31.0% 26.6–31.4% 25.9–32.1%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 22.5% 21.2–24.0% 20.8–24.4% 20.4–24.8% 19.8–25.5%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 22.3% 20.9–23.8% 20.6–24.2% 20.2–24.6% 19.6–25.3%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 4.2% 3.6–5.0% 3.4–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.0–5.8%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.6%
PRO România 4.1% 2.9% 2.4–3.6% 2.2–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 103 97–108 95–110 94–111 90–114
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 79 74–85 73–87 72–88 69–90
Partidul Național Liberal 93 79 74–84 72–86 71–87 68–89
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 35 32–39 31–40 30–41 28–43
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0–17 0–18 0–19
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 14 12–16 11–17 11–18 10–19
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.7%  
91 0.3% 99.4%  
92 0.5% 99.1%  
93 0.9% 98.6%  
94 1.4% 98%  
95 2% 96%  
96 3% 94%  
97 5% 91%  
98 5% 86%  
99 6% 80%  
100 6% 75%  
101 8% 69%  
102 10% 61%  
103 10% 51% Median
104 10% 42%  
105 9% 32%  
106 5% 23%  
107 4% 17%  
108 4% 13%  
109 3% 9%  
110 2% 6% Last Result
111 1.4% 4%  
112 1.2% 2%  
113 0.4% 1.0%  
114 0.2% 0.5%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100% Last Result
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.4%  
71 1.0% 98.9%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 96%  
74 4% 93%  
75 5% 90%  
76 6% 85%  
77 8% 79%  
78 11% 70%  
79 11% 60% Median
80 9% 49%  
81 9% 40%  
82 7% 31%  
83 6% 24%  
84 5% 18%  
85 4% 13%  
86 3% 8%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.2% 3%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.5%  
70 1.0% 99.0%  
71 1.4% 98%  
72 3% 97%  
73 4% 94%  
74 4% 90%  
75 6% 87%  
76 7% 80%  
77 9% 74%  
78 9% 65%  
79 10% 56% Median
80 9% 46%  
81 10% 37%  
82 7% 28%  
83 7% 21%  
84 5% 14%  
85 4% 9%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.4% 3%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.9%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 1.1% 99.2%  
30 2% 98%  
31 5% 96%  
32 9% 90%  
33 9% 82% Last Result
34 13% 72%  
35 13% 59% Median
36 13% 46%  
37 12% 33%  
38 9% 22%  
39 5% 13%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 4%  
42 0.9% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.8%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 0% 9%  
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 0% 9%  
7 0% 9%  
8 0% 9%  
9 0% 9%  
10 0% 9%  
11 0% 9%  
12 0% 9%  
13 0% 9%  
14 0% 9%  
15 0% 9%  
16 0.1% 9%  
17 5% 9%  
18 3% 4%  
19 1.1% 1.4%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 2% 99.6%  
11 6% 98%  
12 13% 91%  
13 19% 78%  
14 21% 59% Median
15 17% 38%  
16 11% 21%  
17 5% 10%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.9% 1.3%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
22 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 174 98% 168–181 166–183 165–185 162–188
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 173 93% 166–179 163–181 161–182 157–185
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 160 20% 154–167 152–169 151–171 148–175
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Național Liberal 148 159 13% 152–165 149–167 148–168 144–171
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 103 0% 97–108 95–110 94–111 90–114
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 94 0% 89–102 87–105 86–108 83–112
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 93 0% 87–99 86–100 84–101 81–104
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 80 0% 75–88 74–93 73–95 70–99
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 80 0% 75–87 73–92 72–94 70–98
Partidul Național Liberal 93 79 0% 74–84 72–86 71–87 68–89

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.3% 99.7%  
163 0.5% 99.4%  
164 0.8% 98.9%  
165 1.3% 98% Majority
166 2% 97%  
167 3% 95%  
168 3% 92%  
169 5% 90% Last Result
170 7% 84%  
171 7% 77%  
172 7% 71% Median
173 9% 63%  
174 9% 55%  
175 7% 46%  
176 7% 39%  
177 8% 33%  
178 5% 24%  
179 5% 19%  
180 3% 14%  
181 3% 11%  
182 2% 8%  
183 1.4% 5%  
184 1.2% 4%  
185 0.9% 3%  
186 0.6% 2%  
187 0.5% 1.2%  
188 0.4% 0.8%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.3% 99.6%  
158 0.4% 99.4%  
159 0.6% 98.9%  
160 0.7% 98%  
161 0.7% 98%  
162 1.3% 97%  
163 1.3% 96%  
164 2% 94%  
165 2% 93% Majority
166 3% 91%  
167 3% 88%  
168 3% 85%  
169 6% 82% Last Result
170 7% 76%  
171 7% 69%  
172 7% 62% Median
173 9% 55%  
174 9% 46%  
175 6% 37%  
176 6% 31%  
177 8% 25%  
178 5% 17%  
179 4% 12%  
180 3% 8%  
181 2% 5%  
182 1.5% 3%  
183 0.9% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.1%  
185 0.3% 0.6%  
186 0.2% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
149 0.5% 99.4%  
150 0.7% 98.9%  
151 1.4% 98%  
152 2% 97%  
153 3% 95%  
154 4% 92%  
155 5% 88%  
156 7% 83%  
157 6% 76%  
158 7% 71% Median
159 10% 63%  
160 6% 53%  
161 8% 47%  
162 8% 39%  
163 6% 31%  
164 5% 25%  
165 5% 20% Majority
166 4% 15%  
167 3% 11%  
168 2% 8%  
169 1.5% 6%  
170 1.3% 4%  
171 1.1% 3%  
172 0.7% 2%  
173 0.6% 1.5%  
174 0.3% 0.9%  
175 0.3% 0.6%  
176 0.1% 0.3%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0.1% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0.1% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.2% 99.7%  
144 0.2% 99.5%  
145 0.4% 99.3%  
146 0.7% 98.9%  
147 0.7% 98%  
148 1.1% 98% Last Result
149 2% 96%  
150 1.2% 95%  
151 2% 93%  
152 3% 91%  
153 3% 88%  
154 4% 85%  
155 5% 81%  
156 7% 75%  
157 6% 68%  
158 7% 62% Median
159 10% 54%  
160 6% 44%  
161 8% 38%  
162 8% 30%  
163 6% 23%  
164 5% 17%  
165 4% 13% Majority
166 3% 8%  
167 2% 5%  
168 2% 4%  
169 0.9% 2%  
170 0.5% 1.1%  
171 0.3% 0.6%  
172 0.2% 0.3%  
173 0.1% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.7%  
91 0.3% 99.4%  
92 0.5% 99.1%  
93 0.9% 98.6%  
94 1.4% 98%  
95 2% 96%  
96 3% 94%  
97 5% 91%  
98 5% 86%  
99 6% 80%  
100 6% 75%  
101 8% 69%  
102 10% 61%  
103 10% 51% Median
104 10% 42%  
105 9% 32%  
106 5% 23%  
107 4% 17%  
108 4% 13%  
109 3% 9%  
110 2% 6% Last Result
111 1.4% 4%  
112 1.2% 2%  
113 0.4% 1.0%  
114 0.2% 0.5%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.7%  
84 0.6% 99.4%  
85 1.0% 98.8%  
86 2% 98%  
87 2% 96%  
88 3% 94%  
89 5% 90%  
90 6% 85%  
91 8% 80%  
92 9% 72%  
93 8% 64% Median
94 8% 55%  
95 10% 47%  
96 7% 37%  
97 5% 30%  
98 6% 25%  
99 3% 19%  
100 4% 16%  
101 2% 12%  
102 2% 10%  
103 1.3% 8%  
104 1.4% 7%  
105 0.9% 6%  
106 0.9% 5%  
107 1.1% 4%  
108 0.7% 3%  
109 0.8% 2%  
110 0.4% 1.3%  
111 0.3% 0.9%  
112 0.2% 0.6%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.7%  
82 0.4% 99.5%  
83 0.9% 99.1%  
84 1.0% 98%  
85 2% 97%  
86 3% 95%  
87 3% 93%  
88 4% 89%  
89 6% 85%  
90 7% 80%  
91 8% 73%  
92 9% 64%  
93 8% 55% Median
94 8% 47%  
95 10% 38%  
96 7% 28%  
97 5% 21%  
98 6% 16%  
99 3% 10%  
100 3% 7%  
101 2% 4%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.6% 1.3%  
104 0.4% 0.7%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100% Last Result
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.5%  
72 1.1% 99.0%  
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 96%  
75 4% 93%  
76 5% 89%  
77 7% 84%  
78 10% 77%  
79 10% 67% Median
80 9% 57%  
81 9% 48%  
82 7% 39%  
83 6% 33%  
84 5% 27%  
85 4% 22%  
86 3% 17%  
87 3% 14%  
88 2% 11%  
89 1.3% 10%  
90 1.1% 9%  
91 1.1% 7%  
92 0.9% 6%  
93 0.9% 6%  
94 1.2% 5%  
95 1.0% 3%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.1%  
99 0.3% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.6%  
71 0.9% 99.1%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 3% 94%  
75 5% 91%  
76 6% 86%  
77 8% 80%  
78 9% 72%  
79 9% 64% Median
80 9% 55%  
81 9% 46%  
82 7% 37%  
83 7% 30%  
84 5% 23%  
85 4% 18%  
86 2% 14%  
87 2% 12%  
88 1.2% 10%  
89 1.0% 9%  
90 1.4% 8%  
91 0.8% 6%  
92 1.3% 6%  
93 0.7% 4% Last Result
94 1.2% 4%  
95 0.7% 2%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.2%  
98 0.4% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.5%  
70 1.0% 99.0%  
71 1.4% 98%  
72 3% 97%  
73 4% 94%  
74 4% 90%  
75 6% 87%  
76 7% 80%  
77 9% 74%  
78 9% 65%  
79 10% 56% Median
80 9% 46%  
81 10% 37%  
82 7% 28%  
83 7% 21%  
84 5% 14%  
85 4% 9%  
86 2% 5%  
87 1.4% 3%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.9%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations