Opinion Poll by INSOMAR for Realitatea.net, 7 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 23.4% 21.8–25.2% 21.3–25.7% 20.9–26.1% 20.1–26.9%
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 22.0% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.2% 19.6–24.7% 18.9–25.5%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 15.4% 14.1–17.0% 13.7–17.4% 13.4–17.8% 12.7–18.5%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.7% 10.9–16.4%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 8.5% 7.5–9.8% 7.2–10.1% 7.0–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
PRO România 4.1% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal 93 86 77–94 76–96 76–97 72–100
Partidul Social Democrat 110 81 74–88 72–91 70–92 68–96
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 56 51–63 50–65 48–66 45–69
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 49 44–55 43–57 41–59 40–61
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 31 27–35 26–37 25–39 23–40
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0–19 0–20 0–21 0–23
PRO România 0 0 0 0–18 0–19 0–21

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.2% 99.6%  
73 0.3% 99.4%  
74 0.8% 99.1%  
75 0.5% 98%  
76 4% 98%  
77 5% 94%  
78 2% 89%  
79 4% 87%  
80 3% 83%  
81 5% 81%  
82 2% 76%  
83 2% 74%  
84 8% 71%  
85 3% 63%  
86 14% 60% Median
87 1.1% 46%  
88 3% 45%  
89 4% 41%  
90 5% 38%  
91 18% 33%  
92 0.5% 15%  
93 3% 14% Last Result
94 4% 11%  
95 0.7% 6%  
96 3% 6%  
97 0.2% 3%  
98 0.9% 2%  
99 0.8% 1.5%  
100 0.5% 0.7%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.7% 99.3%  
70 1.4% 98.6%  
71 1.0% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 2% 95%  
74 5% 93%  
75 2% 88%  
76 8% 86%  
77 8% 78%  
78 4% 71%  
79 3% 67%  
80 8% 64%  
81 10% 56% Median
82 6% 46%  
83 13% 40%  
84 5% 27%  
85 4% 22%  
86 2% 18%  
87 4% 16%  
88 3% 12%  
89 2% 10%  
90 3% 8%  
91 1.3% 6%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.1% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.7%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.8%  
46 0.6% 99.2%  
47 1.0% 98.7%  
48 0.5% 98%  
49 2% 97%  
50 5% 95%  
51 2% 91%  
52 7% 89%  
53 6% 82%  
54 3% 76%  
55 20% 72%  
56 4% 52% Median
57 7% 48%  
58 9% 41%  
59 2% 33%  
60 3% 30%  
61 8% 27%  
62 3% 19%  
63 7% 16%  
64 1.0% 8%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 4%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 0.6% 1.2%  
69 0.4% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.7%  
40 1.2% 99.6%  
41 1.1% 98%  
42 1.5% 97%  
43 2% 96%  
44 5% 94%  
45 7% 89%  
46 7% 82%  
47 10% 75%  
48 6% 65%  
49 11% 59% Median
50 9% 47%  
51 3% 39%  
52 14% 36%  
53 2% 22%  
54 1.5% 20%  
55 10% 18% Last Result
56 3% 8%  
57 1.3% 5%  
58 0.7% 4%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 1.4%  
61 0.3% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100% Last Result
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.6% 99.8%  
24 1.2% 99.2%  
25 3% 98%  
26 2% 95%  
27 3% 93%  
28 6% 90%  
29 7% 84%  
30 6% 77%  
31 28% 71% Median
32 13% 43%  
33 14% 30%  
34 5% 16%  
35 3% 11%  
36 2% 8%  
37 2% 7%  
38 2% 5%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.6% 1.0%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 28%  
2 0% 28%  
3 0% 28%  
4 0% 28%  
5 0% 28%  
6 0% 28%  
7 0% 28%  
8 0% 28%  
9 0% 28%  
10 0% 28%  
11 0% 28%  
12 0% 28%  
13 0% 28%  
14 0% 28%  
15 0% 28%  
16 0% 28%  
17 1.5% 28%  
18 12% 27%  
19 7% 14%  
20 3% 7%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.8% 2%  
23 0.6% 0.8%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0% 8%  
7 0% 8%  
8 0% 8%  
9 0% 8%  
10 0% 8%  
11 0% 8%  
12 0% 8%  
13 0% 8%  
14 0% 8%  
15 0% 8%  
16 0% 8%  
17 2% 8%  
18 3% 7%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.9% 2%  
21 0.5% 0.8%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 174 84% 162–181 160–185 158–186 153–191
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 168 62% 157–177 154–180 151–181 145–184
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 143 0% 130–150 128–155 126–156 124–160
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 136 0% 126–146 123–148 121–148 118–150
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 122 0% 115–135 112–137 109–139 105–140
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 119 0% 109–125 107–128 104–131 98–132
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 91 0% 82–104 79–107 79–108 76–111
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 82 0% 75–92 74–95 72–99 69–104
Partidul Național Liberal 93 86 0% 77–94 76–96 76–97 72–100
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 52 0% 45–68 45–68 43–70 41–76

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0.2% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.1% 99.6%  
154 0.4% 99.5%  
155 0.5% 99.1%  
156 0.4% 98.6%  
157 0.2% 98%  
158 2% 98%  
159 0.8% 96%  
160 1.0% 95%  
161 3% 94%  
162 2% 91%  
163 3% 90%  
164 2% 87%  
165 1.5% 84% Majority
166 2% 83% Median
167 3% 81%  
168 8% 77%  
169 3% 69% Last Result
170 4% 66%  
171 3% 61%  
172 3% 58%  
173 3% 55%  
174 13% 53%  
175 2% 40%  
176 3% 38%  
177 12% 34%  
178 2% 22%  
179 1.3% 20%  
180 4% 19%  
181 5% 15%  
182 2% 9%  
183 1.4% 7%  
184 0.7% 6%  
185 0.7% 5%  
186 3% 5%  
187 0.1% 1.3%  
188 0.3% 1.2%  
189 0.2% 0.9%  
190 0.1% 0.6%  
191 0.2% 0.6%  
192 0.1% 0.4%  
193 0.2% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
142 0% 100%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.2% 99.8%  
145 0.3% 99.7%  
146 0% 99.4%  
147 0.2% 99.4%  
148 0.8% 99.2%  
149 0.3% 98%  
150 0.2% 98%  
151 1.1% 98%  
152 0.5% 97%  
153 0.5% 96%  
154 2% 96%  
155 1.2% 94%  
156 2% 93%  
157 0.8% 90%  
158 4% 89%  
159 5% 86%  
160 4% 81%  
161 3% 77%  
162 5% 74%  
163 3% 69%  
164 3% 65%  
165 2% 62% Majority
166 2% 60% Median
167 3% 58%  
168 11% 55%  
169 3% 43% Last Result
170 4% 41%  
171 3% 36%  
172 2% 33%  
173 2% 31%  
174 12% 29%  
175 0.6% 17%  
176 2% 17%  
177 7% 15%  
178 1.1% 8%  
179 0.6% 7%  
180 3% 6%  
181 2% 3%  
182 0.4% 2%  
183 0.6% 1.2%  
184 0.5% 0.6%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 1.3% 99.7%  
125 0.5% 98%  
126 2% 98%  
127 1.1% 96%  
128 0.9% 95%  
129 1.4% 94%  
130 4% 93%  
131 1.4% 89%  
132 4% 87%  
133 2% 84%  
134 0.4% 82%  
135 7% 82% Median
136 3% 75%  
137 3% 72%  
138 3% 69%  
139 3% 66%  
140 1.2% 63%  
141 6% 61%  
142 3% 55%  
143 14% 52%  
144 2% 38%  
145 7% 36%  
146 7% 29%  
147 0.9% 22%  
148 8% 21% Last Result
149 1.3% 13%  
150 2% 12%  
151 2% 10%  
152 1.0% 8%  
153 0.3% 7%  
154 0.8% 7%  
155 3% 6%  
156 1.2% 3%  
157 0.1% 2%  
158 0.3% 1.4%  
159 0.3% 1.1%  
160 0.4% 0.8%  
161 0.2% 0.4%  
162 0% 0.2%  
163 0.1% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0% Majority

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.2% 99.8%  
117 0.1% 99.6%  
118 0.1% 99.5%  
119 0.7% 99.4%  
120 0.2% 98.7%  
121 1.1% 98.6%  
122 0.6% 97%  
123 2% 97%  
124 3% 95%  
125 2% 92%  
126 3% 90%  
127 6% 87%  
128 1.4% 81%  
129 4% 80%  
130 4% 76%  
131 2% 71%  
132 5% 69%  
133 3% 64%  
134 0.8% 61%  
135 8% 61% Median
136 4% 53%  
137 5% 49%  
138 3% 44%  
139 3% 40%  
140 0.8% 37%  
141 7% 37%  
142 2% 30%  
143 12% 28%  
144 0.5% 16%  
145 2% 15%  
146 6% 13%  
147 0.6% 6%  
148 4% 6% Last Result
149 0.4% 1.3%  
150 0.4% 0.9%  
151 0.1% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.7%  
105 0.3% 99.6%  
106 0.1% 99.3%  
107 0.1% 99.2%  
108 1.1% 99.1%  
109 2% 98%  
110 0.5% 96%  
111 0.1% 96%  
112 2% 96%  
113 2% 93%  
114 0.4% 91% Last Result
115 8% 91%  
116 3% 83%  
117 2% 81% Median
118 5% 79%  
119 9% 73%  
120 1.3% 64%  
121 2% 63%  
122 20% 61%  
123 3% 41%  
124 1.2% 38%  
125 3% 37%  
126 3% 34%  
127 7% 31%  
128 4% 24%  
129 3% 19%  
130 0.3% 16%  
131 0.8% 16%  
132 2% 15%  
133 1.0% 13%  
134 2% 12%  
135 0.6% 10%  
136 2% 10%  
137 3% 7%  
138 0.3% 4%  
139 3% 4%  
140 0.5% 0.9%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0% 0.3%  
143 0% 0.3%  
144 0% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.5% 100%  
99 0.3% 99.5%  
100 0.1% 99.2%  
101 0% 99.1%  
102 0.1% 99.1%  
103 0.5% 99.0%  
104 1.4% 98%  
105 0.6% 97%  
106 0.2% 97%  
107 1.3% 96%  
108 4% 95%  
109 7% 91%  
110 1.4% 84%  
111 2% 83%  
112 3% 80%  
113 4% 78%  
114 1.1% 74% Last Result
115 8% 73%  
116 4% 65%  
117 2% 61% Median
118 9% 59%  
119 9% 50%  
120 2% 41%  
121 5% 39%  
122 20% 34%  
123 2% 14%  
124 0.3% 12%  
125 2% 11%  
126 2% 9%  
127 0.2% 7%  
128 3% 7%  
129 1.3% 4%  
130 0.1% 3%  
131 0.6% 3%  
132 2% 2%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.4% 99.7%  
77 1.1% 99.3%  
78 0.5% 98%  
79 3% 98%  
80 0.7% 95%  
81 4% 94%  
82 2% 90%  
83 2% 89%  
84 7% 87%  
85 0.3% 80%  
86 12% 80% Median
87 0.6% 68%  
88 3% 67%  
89 4% 65%  
90 1.3% 61%  
91 18% 60%  
92 0.8% 42%  
93 4% 41% Last Result
94 4% 37%  
95 6% 33%  
96 4% 26%  
97 2% 22%  
98 2% 20%  
99 2% 18%  
100 1.3% 17%  
101 1.4% 15%  
102 1.4% 14%  
103 1.5% 13%  
104 5% 11%  
105 0.4% 7%  
106 1.1% 6%  
107 0.2% 5%  
108 3% 5%  
109 0.4% 2%  
110 0.7% 1.3%  
111 0.3% 0.6%  
112 0% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.6%  
70 1.2% 99.5%  
71 0.6% 98%  
72 1.4% 98%  
73 1.1% 96%  
74 4% 95%  
75 1.5% 91%  
76 7% 90%  
77 7% 82%  
78 3% 75%  
79 2% 72%  
80 7% 69%  
81 9% 62% Median
82 5% 53%  
83 13% 47%  
84 5% 35%  
85 4% 30%  
86 2% 26%  
87 4% 24%  
88 3% 20%  
89 2% 17%  
90 3% 15%  
91 2% 12%  
92 3% 10%  
93 1.5% 8%  
94 0.3% 6%  
95 0.9% 6%  
96 0.7% 5%  
97 0.5% 4%  
98 0.4% 4%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.3% 2%  
101 0.4% 1.3%  
102 0% 0.9%  
103 0.1% 0.9%  
104 0.5% 0.7%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.2% 99.6%  
73 0.3% 99.4%  
74 0.8% 99.1%  
75 0.5% 98%  
76 4% 98%  
77 5% 94%  
78 2% 89%  
79 4% 87%  
80 3% 83%  
81 5% 81%  
82 2% 76%  
83 2% 74%  
84 8% 71%  
85 3% 63%  
86 14% 60% Median
87 1.1% 46%  
88 3% 45%  
89 4% 41%  
90 5% 38%  
91 18% 33%  
92 0.5% 15%  
93 3% 14% Last Result
94 4% 11%  
95 0.7% 6%  
96 3% 6%  
97 0.2% 3%  
98 0.9% 2%  
99 0.8% 1.5%  
100 0.5% 0.7%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 1.3% 99.4%  
43 1.1% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 6% 95%  
46 5% 90%  
47 4% 85%  
48 5% 81%  
49 10% 77% Median
50 3% 67%  
51 3% 64%  
52 14% 62%  
53 2% 48%  
54 1.0% 47%  
55 10% 46% Last Result
56 3% 36%  
57 1.2% 33%  
58 1.3% 32%  
59 3% 30%  
60 1.0% 28%  
61 0.4% 27%  
62 0.9% 26%  
63 3% 25%  
64 2% 22%  
65 4% 20%  
66 3% 16%  
67 3% 13%  
68 6% 10%  
69 0.4% 4%  
70 1.3% 4%  
71 0.5% 2%  
72 0.2% 2%  
73 0.5% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.2%  
75 0.3% 0.8%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations