Opinion Poll by IRES, 1–31 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 34.9% 33.1–36.8% 32.6–37.3% 32.1–37.8% 31.3–38.7%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 27.2% 25.5–29.0% 25.0–29.5% 24.6–29.9% 23.8–30.8%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 13.6% 12.4–15.0% 12.0–15.5% 11.7–15.8% 11.2–16.5%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 10.6% 9.5–11.9% 9.2–12.3% 8.9–12.6% 8.4–13.2%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
PRO România 4.1% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.8–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 122 116–129 114–130 113–132 110–135
Partidul Național Liberal 93 95 89–101 88–103 86–104 84–107
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 48 43–52 42–54 41–55 39–57
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 37 33–41 32–43 31–44 29–46
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 9 8–12 8–12 8–13 7–16
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.4% 99.6% Last Result
111 0.5% 99.2%  
112 1.1% 98.7%  
113 1.2% 98%  
114 2% 96%  
115 3% 94%  
116 4% 91%  
117 4% 88%  
118 7% 83%  
119 6% 77%  
120 8% 71%  
121 9% 63%  
122 9% 54% Median
123 7% 45%  
124 7% 38%  
125 7% 31%  
126 5% 24%  
127 5% 19%  
128 4% 14%  
129 4% 10%  
130 2% 6%  
131 2% 5%  
132 0.9% 3%  
133 0.8% 2%  
134 0.4% 1.2%  
135 0.4% 0.8%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.5% 99.5%  
85 0.6% 99.0%  
86 1.2% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 2% 95%  
89 4% 93%  
90 4% 89%  
91 6% 85%  
92 8% 79%  
93 6% 71% Last Result
94 11% 65%  
95 7% 54% Median
96 9% 48%  
97 8% 38%  
98 6% 30%  
99 6% 24%  
100 4% 17%  
101 4% 13%  
102 3% 9%  
103 2% 6%  
104 1.5% 4%  
105 1.0% 2%  
106 0.6% 1.4%  
107 0.4% 0.9%  
108 0.2% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.6%  
40 1.1% 99.0%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 5% 93%  
44 7% 88%  
45 9% 81%  
46 10% 72%  
47 12% 63%  
48 11% 51% Median
49 10% 41%  
50 8% 30%  
51 7% 22%  
52 5% 15%  
53 4% 10%  
54 2% 6%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.9% 2%  
57 0.5% 0.9%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.8%  
30 0.9% 99.3%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 6% 92%  
34 9% 86%  
35 11% 78%  
36 11% 67%  
37 12% 56% Median
38 11% 43%  
39 11% 32%  
40 8% 22%  
41 5% 14%  
42 4% 9%  
43 2% 5%  
44 1.4% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.4%  
46 0.4% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.7%  
7 0.5% 99.6%  
8 34% 99.2%  
9 20% 65% Median
10 0.5% 45%  
11 11% 45%  
12 30% 34%  
13 2% 4%  
14 0.1% 2%  
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0.5% 0.5%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 142 0% 136–149 134–150 132–152 129–155
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 132 0% 126–139 124–140 123–142 119–145
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 122 0% 116–129 114–130 113–132 110–135
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 105 0% 99–111 97–113 96–114 93–118
Partidul Național Liberal 93 95 0% 89–101 88–103 86–104 84–107

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.2% 99.8%  
129 0.3% 99.6%  
130 0.4% 99.3%  
131 0.6% 98.9%  
132 1.1% 98%  
133 1.4% 97%  
134 2% 96%  
135 3% 94%  
136 4% 91%  
137 4% 87%  
138 6% 83%  
139 7% 77%  
140 7% 70%  
141 8% 63% Median
142 8% 55%  
143 7% 47%  
144 8% 40%  
145 6% 32%  
146 6% 26%  
147 5% 19%  
148 4% 14%  
149 3% 10%  
150 2% 7%  
151 2% 5%  
152 1.2% 3%  
153 0.8% 2%  
154 0.5% 1.2%  
155 0.3% 0.7%  
156 0.2% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.6%  
120 0.4% 99.4%  
121 0.7% 99.0%  
122 0.8% 98%  
123 2% 98%  
124 2% 96%  
125 3% 94%  
126 4% 91%  
127 5% 88%  
128 6% 83%  
129 6% 77%  
130 8% 71%  
131 8% 63%  
132 7% 55% Median
133 9% 48%  
134 7% 39%  
135 7% 33%  
136 6% 25%  
137 5% 19%  
138 4% 15%  
139 3% 10%  
140 2% 7%  
141 2% 5%  
142 1.1% 3%  
143 0.7% 2%  
144 0.6% 1.2%  
145 0.3% 0.7%  
146 0.2% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1% Last Result
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.8%  
110 0.4% 99.6% Last Result
111 0.5% 99.2%  
112 1.1% 98.7%  
113 1.2% 98%  
114 2% 96%  
115 3% 94%  
116 4% 91%  
117 4% 88%  
118 7% 84%  
119 6% 77%  
120 8% 71%  
121 9% 63%  
122 9% 54% Median
123 7% 45%  
124 7% 38%  
125 7% 31%  
126 5% 24%  
127 5% 19%  
128 4% 14%  
129 4% 10%  
130 2% 6%  
131 2% 5%  
132 0.9% 3%  
133 0.8% 2%  
134 0.4% 1.2%  
135 0.4% 0.8%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.6%  
94 0.6% 99.4%  
95 0.8% 98.8%  
96 1.3% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 2% 94%  
99 5% 92%  
100 4% 88%  
101 5% 84%  
102 9% 79%  
103 6% 70%  
104 10% 64% Median
105 6% 54%  
106 9% 48%  
107 8% 39%  
108 5% 30%  
109 8% 25%  
110 4% 17%  
111 4% 13%  
112 3% 9%  
113 2% 6%  
114 2% 4% Last Result
115 0.8% 2%  
116 0.7% 2%  
117 0.4% 1.0%  
118 0.2% 0.6%  
119 0.2% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.5% 99.5%  
85 0.6% 99.0%  
86 1.2% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 2% 95%  
89 4% 93%  
90 4% 89%  
91 6% 85%  
92 8% 79%  
93 6% 71% Last Result
94 11% 65%  
95 7% 54% Median
96 9% 48%  
97 8% 38%  
98 6% 30%  
99 6% 24%  
100 4% 17%  
101 4% 13%  
102 3% 9%  
103 2% 6%  
104 1.5% 4%  
105 1.0% 2%  
106 0.6% 1.4%  
107 0.4% 0.9%  
108 0.2% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations