Opinion Poll by INSCOP, 1–15 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 30.2% 28.4–32.0% 28.0–32.5% 27.5–33.0% 26.7–33.9%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 26.6% 25.0–28.4% 24.5–28.9% 24.1–29.3% 23.3–30.2%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 14.2% 12.9–15.6% 12.5–16.0% 12.2–16.4% 11.7–17.1%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 13.2% 11.9–14.6% 11.6–15.0% 11.3–15.3% 10.7–16.0%
PRO România 4.1% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.6% 2.9–6.1%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 2.8% 2.3–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 112 104–118 102–120 101–122 96–125
Partidul Național Liberal 93 98 91–104 89–106 88–108 84–111
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 52 47–57 46–59 44–60 42–63
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 48 43–53 42–55 41–56 39–59
PRO România 0 0 0–18 0–19 0–19 0–21
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.3% 99.5%  
98 0.2% 99.2%  
99 0.6% 99.0%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 2% 98%  
102 2% 96%  
103 4% 94%  
104 3% 90%  
105 4% 87%  
106 3% 83%  
107 5% 80%  
108 4% 75%  
109 5% 71%  
110 7% 67% Last Result
111 10% 60%  
112 10% 50% Median
113 10% 40%  
114 8% 30%  
115 6% 22%  
116 4% 16%  
117 2% 12%  
118 2% 10%  
119 2% 8%  
120 2% 6%  
121 2% 4%  
122 1.0% 3%  
123 0.8% 2%  
124 0.5% 1.0%  
125 0.3% 0.5%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.5%  
86 0.5% 99.1%  
87 0.7% 98.5%  
88 1.0% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 95%  
91 3% 92%  
92 4% 89%  
93 4% 85% Last Result
94 5% 80%  
95 6% 76%  
96 7% 70%  
97 9% 63%  
98 9% 53% Median
99 7% 45%  
100 7% 38%  
101 5% 31%  
102 6% 25%  
103 6% 20%  
104 4% 14%  
105 3% 10%  
106 2% 6%  
107 1.1% 4%  
108 0.9% 3%  
109 0.8% 2%  
110 0.5% 1.3%  
111 0.4% 0.7%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 0.7% 99.3%  
44 1.3% 98.7%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 95%  
47 5% 92%  
48 6% 88%  
49 8% 82%  
50 9% 74%  
51 9% 65%  
52 10% 55% Median
53 10% 45%  
54 8% 35%  
55 7% 27%  
56 6% 20%  
57 5% 13%  
58 3% 9%  
59 2% 6%  
60 1.4% 3%  
61 0.8% 2%  
62 0.5% 1.0%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.7%  
40 0.9% 99.0%  
41 1.0% 98%  
42 3% 97%  
43 5% 94%  
44 5% 89%  
45 5% 84%  
46 11% 79%  
47 11% 68%  
48 9% 57% Median
49 10% 48%  
50 10% 39%  
51 8% 28%  
52 6% 20%  
53 5% 14%  
54 3% 9%  
55 2% 6% Last Result
56 1.5% 3%  
57 0.9% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 14%  
2 0% 14%  
3 0% 14%  
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 0% 14%  
7 0% 14%  
8 0% 14%  
9 0% 14%  
10 0% 14%  
11 0% 14%  
12 0% 14%  
13 0% 14%  
14 0% 14%  
15 0% 14%  
16 0% 14%  
17 2% 14%  
18 7% 12%  
19 3% 6%  
20 1.5% 2%  
21 0.6% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 147 0% 139–154 136–156 134–157 130–161
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 147 0% 139–154 136–156 134–157 130–161
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 113 0% 106–123 104–125 102–128 100–133
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 98 0% 91–104 89–106 88–108 84–111
Partidul Național Liberal 93 98 0% 91–104 89–106 88–108 84–111
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 48 0% 43–53 42–55 41–56 39–59

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.2% 99.7%  
130 0.2% 99.6%  
131 0.4% 99.4%  
132 0.4% 98.9%  
133 0.6% 98.5%  
134 0.8% 98%  
135 1.3% 97%  
136 1.4% 96%  
137 2% 94%  
138 2% 93%  
139 3% 90%  
140 3% 87%  
141 4% 84%  
142 5% 80%  
143 5% 76%  
144 6% 70%  
145 6% 64%  
146 7% 58% Median
147 8% 52%  
148 7% 43% Last Result
149 7% 36%  
150 6% 29%  
151 5% 23%  
152 5% 18%  
153 3% 14%  
154 3% 10%  
155 2% 7%  
156 2% 5%  
157 1.2% 4%  
158 0.9% 2%  
159 0.6% 2%  
160 0.3% 0.9%  
161 0.3% 0.6%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0% Majority

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.2% 99.7%  
130 0.2% 99.6%  
131 0.4% 99.4%  
132 0.4% 98.9%  
133 0.6% 98.5%  
134 0.8% 98%  
135 1.3% 97%  
136 1.4% 96%  
137 2% 94%  
138 2% 93%  
139 3% 90%  
140 3% 87%  
141 4% 84%  
142 5% 80%  
143 5% 76%  
144 6% 70%  
145 6% 64%  
146 7% 58% Median
147 8% 52%  
148 7% 43% Last Result
149 7% 36%  
150 6% 29%  
151 5% 23%  
152 5% 18%  
153 3% 14%  
154 3% 10%  
155 2% 7%  
156 2% 5%  
157 1.2% 4%  
158 0.9% 2%  
159 0.6% 2%  
160 0.3% 0.9%  
161 0.3% 0.6%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0% Majority

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.4% 99.6%  
101 0.8% 99.2%  
102 1.3% 98%  
103 2% 97%  
104 2% 95%  
105 2% 93%  
106 2% 91%  
107 3% 89%  
108 4% 86%  
109 4% 82%  
110 7% 78% Last Result
111 9% 71%  
112 9% 62% Median
113 10% 53%  
114 8% 43%  
115 6% 35%  
116 4% 29%  
117 2% 25%  
118 2% 23%  
119 3% 21%  
120 2% 18%  
121 3% 16%  
122 3% 13%  
123 2% 10%  
124 2% 8%  
125 1.3% 6%  
126 0.8% 4%  
127 0.7% 4%  
128 0.5% 3%  
129 0.5% 2%  
130 0.4% 2%  
131 0.6% 1.4%  
132 0.3% 0.8%  
133 0.2% 0.5%  
134 0.2% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.5%  
86 0.5% 99.1%  
87 0.7% 98.5%  
88 1.0% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 95%  
91 3% 92%  
92 4% 89%  
93 4% 85% Last Result
94 5% 80%  
95 6% 76%  
96 7% 70%  
97 9% 63%  
98 9% 53% Median
99 7% 45%  
100 7% 38%  
101 5% 31%  
102 6% 25%  
103 6% 20%  
104 4% 14%  
105 3% 10%  
106 2% 6%  
107 1.1% 4%  
108 0.9% 3%  
109 0.8% 2%  
110 0.5% 1.3%  
111 0.4% 0.7%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.5%  
86 0.5% 99.1%  
87 0.7% 98.5%  
88 1.0% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 95%  
91 3% 92%  
92 4% 89%  
93 4% 85% Last Result
94 5% 80%  
95 6% 76%  
96 7% 70%  
97 9% 63%  
98 9% 53% Median
99 7% 45%  
100 7% 38%  
101 5% 31%  
102 6% 25%  
103 6% 20%  
104 4% 14%  
105 3% 10%  
106 2% 6%  
107 1.1% 4%  
108 0.9% 3%  
109 0.8% 2%  
110 0.5% 1.3%  
111 0.4% 0.7%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.7%  
40 0.9% 99.0%  
41 0.9% 98%  
42 3% 97%  
43 5% 94%  
44 5% 89%  
45 5% 84%  
46 11% 79%  
47 11% 68%  
48 9% 57% Median
49 10% 48%  
50 10% 39%  
51 8% 28%  
52 6% 20%  
53 5% 14%  
54 3% 9%  
55 2% 6% Last Result
56 1.5% 3%  
57 0.9% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations