Opinion Poll by INSOMAR for Realitatea.net, 1–15 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 25.4% 23.7–27.2% 23.3–27.8% 22.9–28.2% 22.1–29.1%
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 23.3% 21.7–25.1% 21.2–25.6% 20.8–26.0% 20.1–26.8%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 18.3% 16.9–20.0% 16.5–20.4% 16.1–20.8% 15.4–21.6%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 15.2% 13.9–16.8% 13.5–17.2% 13.2–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.2% 4.5–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.7–7.3%
PRO România 4.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal 93 92 86–97 83–98 82–100 79–103
Partidul Social Democrat 110 82 77–89 76–90 74–92 72–95
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 66 60–70 59–72 57–74 55–77
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 54 49–59 48–60 47–63 44–64
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 19 15–21 15–23 14–24 14–25
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.5% 99.6%  
80 0.8% 99.1%  
81 0.7% 98%  
82 1.2% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 1.3% 95%  
85 3% 93%  
86 8% 90%  
87 3% 82%  
88 6% 79%  
89 11% 73%  
90 6% 62%  
91 6% 56%  
92 14% 50% Median
93 7% 36% Last Result
94 4% 29%  
95 7% 25%  
96 7% 17%  
97 0.8% 10%  
98 5% 10%  
99 2% 5%  
100 0.3% 3%  
101 1.3% 2%  
102 0.4% 0.9%  
103 0.1% 0.5%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 1.0% 99.2%  
74 2% 98%  
75 1.2% 96%  
76 4% 95%  
77 4% 91%  
78 5% 86%  
79 3% 81%  
80 6% 78%  
81 13% 72%  
82 11% 59% Median
83 6% 49%  
84 5% 43%  
85 9% 38%  
86 8% 28%  
87 6% 20%  
88 4% 14%  
89 4% 10%  
90 3% 7%  
91 1.1% 4%  
92 0.9% 3%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.2%  
95 0.3% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 0.6% 99.4%  
57 2% 98.8%  
58 1.3% 97%  
59 3% 96%  
60 5% 93%  
61 6% 88%  
62 6% 82%  
63 5% 76%  
64 11% 71%  
65 8% 60%  
66 11% 52% Median
67 9% 40%  
68 7% 32%  
69 10% 24%  
70 6% 15%  
71 2% 9%  
72 2% 7%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.1% 3%  
75 0.5% 1.4%  
76 0.4% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 0.4% 99.3%  
46 0.3% 98.9%  
47 2% 98.7%  
48 5% 97%  
49 11% 93%  
50 2% 82%  
51 1.2% 79%  
52 5% 78%  
53 14% 73%  
54 20% 59% Median
55 8% 39% Last Result
56 2% 32%  
57 4% 30%  
58 13% 26%  
59 6% 13%  
60 3% 7%  
61 0.4% 4%  
62 0.5% 4%  
63 2% 3%  
64 1.1% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 0.2% 99.7%  
14 3% 99.5%  
15 12% 96%  
16 14% 84%  
17 2% 71%  
18 8% 68%  
19 27% 61% Median
20 21% 34%  
21 6% 13% Last Result
22 0.7% 7%  
23 3% 7%  
24 3% 4%  
25 1.3% 1.5%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 164 49% 157–170 155–172 153–173 150–176
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 146 0% 139–152 137–153 135–155 132–158
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 110 0% 104–115 102–118 100–119 97–122
Partidul Național Liberal 93 92 0% 86–97 83–98 82–100 79–103
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 82 0% 77–89 76–90 74–92 72–95

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.3% 99.9%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.5% 99.4%  
152 0.3% 98.8%  
153 1.3% 98.6%  
154 1.4% 97%  
155 1.0% 96%  
156 2% 95%  
157 5% 93%  
158 4% 88%  
159 3% 84%  
160 7% 81%  
161 11% 73%  
162 4% 63%  
163 3% 58%  
164 6% 56%  
165 16% 49% Median, Majority
166 3% 33%  
167 4% 29%  
168 5% 25%  
169 9% 19% Last Result
170 2% 11%  
171 1.2% 9%  
172 4% 8%  
173 1.5% 4%  
174 0.6% 2%  
175 0.3% 2%  
176 0.7% 1.2%  
177 0.1% 0.5%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0.1% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
128 0% 100%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.8%  
131 0.2% 99.7%  
132 0.2% 99.5%  
133 0.9% 99.3%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 1.2% 98%  
136 1.3% 97%  
137 1.2% 95%  
138 3% 94%  
139 5% 91%  
140 5% 86%  
141 6% 82%  
142 6% 76%  
143 4% 70%  
144 9% 65%  
145 6% 57%  
146 13% 51% Median
147 5% 39%  
148 4% 33% Last Result
149 9% 29%  
150 6% 21%  
151 4% 15%  
152 5% 11%  
153 2% 6%  
154 1.2% 5%  
155 1.0% 3%  
156 0.8% 2%  
157 0.8% 1.5%  
158 0.2% 0.7%  
159 0.2% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.8%  
97 0.3% 99.6%  
98 0.8% 99.3%  
99 0.9% 98%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 1.2% 97%  
102 3% 95%  
103 0.9% 93%  
104 7% 92%  
105 7% 85%  
106 6% 78%  
107 8% 72%  
108 6% 63%  
109 7% 58%  
110 2% 51%  
111 14% 49% Median
112 6% 35%  
113 7% 28%  
114 7% 21% Last Result
115 6% 15%  
116 2% 8%  
117 0.5% 6%  
118 3% 6%  
119 0.7% 3%  
120 0.8% 2%  
121 0.8% 1.5%  
122 0.5% 0.7%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.5% 99.6%  
80 0.8% 99.1%  
81 0.7% 98%  
82 1.2% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 1.3% 95%  
85 3% 93%  
86 8% 90%  
87 3% 82%  
88 6% 79%  
89 11% 73%  
90 6% 62%  
91 6% 56%  
92 14% 50% Median
93 7% 36% Last Result
94 4% 29%  
95 7% 25%  
96 7% 17%  
97 0.8% 10%  
98 5% 10%  
99 2% 5%  
100 0.3% 3%  
101 1.3% 2%  
102 0.4% 0.9%  
103 0.1% 0.5%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 1.0% 99.2%  
74 2% 98%  
75 1.2% 96%  
76 4% 95%  
77 4% 91%  
78 5% 86%  
79 3% 81%  
80 6% 78%  
81 13% 72%  
82 11% 59% Median
83 6% 49%  
84 5% 43%  
85 9% 38%  
86 8% 28%  
87 6% 20%  
88 4% 14%  
89 4% 10%  
90 3% 7%  
91 1.1% 4%  
92 0.9% 3%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.2%  
95 0.3% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations