Opinion Poll by INSOMAR for Realitatea.net, 1–15 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 38.1% 36.1–40.0% 35.6–40.6% 35.1–41.1% 34.2–42.0%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 15.1% 13.8–16.7% 13.4–17.1% 13.1–17.5% 12.5–18.2%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 15.0% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.0% 13.0–17.4% 12.4–18.1%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 11.1% 9.9–12.4% 9.6–12.8% 9.3–13.1% 8.8–13.8%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.1% 4.4–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.7% 3.6–7.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 141 134–148 132–150 130–151 127–155
Partidul Național Liberal 93 56 51–61 49–63 48–64 46–67
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 56 50–61 49–62 48–64 46–67
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 41 36–46 35–47 34–48 32–51
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 19 16–22 15–23 14–24 13–26

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100% Last Result
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.2% 99.8%  
127 0.3% 99.7%  
128 0.4% 99.4%  
129 0.6% 99.0%  
130 1.1% 98%  
131 1.4% 97%  
132 2% 96%  
133 3% 94%  
134 3% 91%  
135 4% 88%  
136 5% 84%  
137 6% 79%  
138 6% 73%  
139 7% 67%  
140 8% 59%  
141 7% 52% Median
142 7% 44%  
143 8% 38%  
144 7% 30%  
145 5% 23%  
146 5% 19%  
147 4% 14%  
148 3% 10%  
149 2% 7%  
150 2% 5%  
151 1.2% 3%  
152 0.8% 2%  
153 0.5% 1.3%  
154 0.4% 0.9%  
155 0.2% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 0.8% 99.1%  
48 1.4% 98%  
49 3% 97%  
50 3% 94%  
51 5% 91%  
52 6% 86%  
53 8% 80%  
54 9% 72%  
55 9% 63%  
56 10% 53% Median
57 9% 44%  
58 8% 35%  
59 7% 27%  
60 6% 19%  
61 4% 14%  
62 3% 9%  
63 2% 6%  
64 1.5% 4%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.5%  
47 1.1% 99.0%  
48 2% 98%  
49 3% 96%  
50 4% 94%  
51 5% 89%  
52 7% 84%  
53 9% 77%  
54 8% 68%  
55 10% 60%  
56 11% 50% Median
57 8% 40%  
58 8% 32%  
59 7% 23%  
60 5% 16%  
61 4% 12%  
62 3% 8%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.3% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.9%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.7%  
33 1.0% 99.2%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 96%  
36 5% 93%  
37 7% 88%  
38 8% 81%  
39 10% 73%  
40 10% 63%  
41 11% 52% Median
42 10% 42%  
43 9% 32%  
44 8% 24%  
45 5% 16%  
46 4% 11%  
47 3% 7%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.0% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.1%  
51 0.3% 0.6%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.7%  
14 2% 98.9%  
15 5% 96%  
16 9% 92%  
17 13% 83%  
18 15% 70%  
19 16% 55% Median
20 13% 39%  
21 10% 26% Last Result
22 7% 15%  
23 4% 9%  
24 2% 4%  
25 1.2% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.9%  
27 0.2% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 116 0% 109–122 107–124 106–126 102–129
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 97 0% 90–103 89–105 87–107 84–110
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 75 0% 69–81 67–82 66–84 63–87
Partidul Național Liberal 93 56 0% 51–61 49–63 48–64 46–67

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.3% 99.5%  
104 0.6% 99.1%  
105 0.9% 98.5%  
106 1.2% 98%  
107 2% 96%  
108 3% 94%  
109 3% 92%  
110 5% 89%  
111 5% 84%  
112 5% 79%  
113 8% 74%  
114 7% 66%  
115 7% 59%  
116 8% 52% Median
117 7% 43%  
118 6% 36%  
119 7% 29%  
120 5% 22%  
121 4% 17%  
122 4% 13%  
123 3% 9%  
124 2% 7%  
125 2% 5%  
126 1.0% 3%  
127 0.6% 2%  
128 0.5% 1.2%  
129 0.3% 0.7%  
130 0.2% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.4%  
86 0.7% 99.0%  
87 1.2% 98%  
88 1.4% 97%  
89 2% 96%  
90 3% 93%  
91 4% 90%  
92 5% 86%  
93 7% 81%  
94 7% 74%  
95 8% 67%  
96 8% 60%  
97 9% 52% Median
98 8% 43%  
99 7% 36%  
100 6% 29%  
101 6% 23%  
102 4% 17%  
103 4% 12%  
104 3% 9%  
105 2% 6%  
106 1.3% 4%  
107 1.0% 3%  
108 0.6% 2%  
109 0.4% 1.0%  
110 0.2% 0.6%  
111 0.2% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  
115 0% 0%  
116 0% 0%  
117 0% 0%  
118 0% 0%  
119 0% 0%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0%  
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 99.5%  
65 0.8% 99.0%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 3% 95%  
69 4% 92%  
70 5% 88%  
71 7% 83%  
72 7% 77%  
73 8% 70%  
74 9% 62%  
75 9% 53% Median
76 8% 43%  
77 8% 35%  
78 7% 27%  
79 6% 21%  
80 4% 15%  
81 3% 11%  
82 2% 7%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.2% 3%  
85 0.8% 2%  
86 0.5% 1.2%  
87 0.3% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 0.8% 99.1%  
48 1.4% 98%  
49 3% 97%  
50 3% 94%  
51 5% 91%  
52 6% 86%  
53 8% 80%  
54 9% 72%  
55 9% 63%  
56 10% 53% Median
57 9% 44%  
58 8% 35%  
59 7% 27%  
60 6% 19%  
61 4% 14%  
62 3% 9%  
63 2% 6%  
64 1.5% 4%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations