Opinion Poll by Sociopol, 1–15 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 32.0% 30.2–33.9% 29.7–34.4% 29.3–34.8% 28.5–35.7%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 27.8% 26.1–29.6% 25.7–30.1% 25.2–30.5% 24.4–31.4%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 15.5% 14.1–16.9% 13.7–17.4% 13.4–17.7% 12.8–18.4%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 10.3% 9.2–11.5% 8.9–11.9% 8.6–12.2% 8.1–12.8%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 7.2% 6.3–8.3% 6.0–8.6% 5.8–8.9% 5.4–9.4%
PRO România 4.1% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.1–5.4% 2.8–5.9%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 107 101–114 99–115 97–117 94–120
Partidul Național Liberal 93 93 88–100 86–101 84–102 81–105
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 53 47–57 46–58 45–59 43–62
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 33 30–38 29–40 28–41 27–43
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 24 21–27 20–29 19–29 18–31
PRO România 0 0 0–16 0–17 0–17 0–19
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.3% 99.6%  
95 0.3% 99.4%  
96 0.6% 99.0%  
97 1.0% 98%  
98 2% 97%  
99 2% 96%  
100 3% 94%  
101 3% 91%  
102 6% 88%  
103 6% 82%  
104 6% 77%  
105 7% 70%  
106 9% 64%  
107 8% 54% Median
108 7% 47%  
109 8% 40%  
110 7% 32% Last Result
111 6% 24%  
112 4% 18%  
113 4% 14%  
114 3% 10%  
115 2% 7%  
116 1.4% 5%  
117 1.3% 3%  
118 0.8% 2%  
119 0.5% 1.2%  
120 0.2% 0.7%  
121 0.3% 0.5%  
122 0.1% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.5% 99.5%  
82 0.5% 99.0%  
83 0.8% 98.5%  
84 0.9% 98%  
85 1.2% 97%  
86 2% 96%  
87 3% 93%  
88 5% 91%  
89 6% 86%  
90 8% 80%  
91 10% 71%  
92 11% 61%  
93 9% 50% Last Result, Median
94 5% 42%  
95 6% 37%  
96 4% 31%  
97 5% 27%  
98 4% 22%  
99 6% 18%  
100 5% 12%  
101 3% 6%  
102 1.4% 3%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.4% 1.1%  
105 0.2% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.6% 99.6%  
44 0.8% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 93%  
48 5% 89%  
49 7% 84%  
50 8% 76%  
51 7% 69%  
52 9% 62%  
53 9% 52% Median
54 11% 43%  
55 10% 32% Last Result
56 9% 22%  
57 5% 13%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.6% 1.3%  
62 0.4% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.7% 99.7%  
28 2% 99.0%  
29 5% 97%  
30 9% 92%  
31 12% 83%  
32 15% 71%  
33 15% 56% Last Result, Median
34 12% 41%  
35 10% 29%  
36 5% 19%  
37 3% 14%  
38 3% 10%  
39 2% 8%  
40 2% 5%  
41 1.3% 3%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 0.6% 1.0%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 1.2% 99.6%  
19 3% 98%  
20 5% 96%  
21 9% 91% Last Result
22 11% 82%  
23 14% 71%  
24 16% 57% Median
25 14% 41%  
26 10% 27%  
27 7% 17%  
28 4% 10%  
29 3% 5%  
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.5% 0.9%  
32 0.2% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0% 11%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 0% 11%  
8 0% 11%  
9 0% 11%  
10 0% 11%  
11 0% 11%  
12 0% 11%  
13 0% 11%  
14 0% 11%  
15 0% 11%  
16 5% 11%  
17 4% 6%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.6% 0.8%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 170 80% 161–177 160–178 158–180 153–182
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 170 80% 161–177 160–178 158–180 153–182
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 146 0% 138–153 136–154 135–156 130–158
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 146 0% 138–153 136–154 135–156 130–158
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 117 0% 111–124 109–126 107–127 103–130
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 117 0% 111–124 109–126 107–127 103–130
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 109 0% 102–117 101–120 99–122 96–126
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 93 0% 88–100 86–101 84–102 81–105
Partidul Național Liberal 93 93 0% 88–100 86–101 84–102 81–105
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 53 0% 47–57 46–58 45–59 43–62

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.2% 99.8%  
153 0.2% 99.6%  
154 0.3% 99.4%  
155 0.3% 99.1%  
156 0.4% 98.8%  
157 0.8% 98%  
158 0.9% 98%  
159 2% 97%  
160 2% 95%  
161 3% 93%  
162 4% 89%  
163 3% 86%  
164 3% 83%  
165 3% 80% Majority
166 4% 77%  
167 4% 73%  
168 6% 69%  
169 7% 63% Last Result
170 11% 56% Median
171 8% 46%  
172 7% 38%  
173 6% 31%  
174 4% 25%  
175 4% 21%  
176 5% 17%  
177 4% 12%  
178 4% 8%  
179 2% 4%  
180 1.3% 3%  
181 0.6% 1.3%  
182 0.3% 0.7%  
183 0.2% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.2% 99.8%  
153 0.2% 99.6%  
154 0.3% 99.4%  
155 0.3% 99.1%  
156 0.4% 98.8%  
157 0.8% 98%  
158 0.9% 98%  
159 2% 97%  
160 2% 95%  
161 3% 93%  
162 4% 89%  
163 3% 86%  
164 3% 83%  
165 3% 80% Majority
166 4% 77%  
167 4% 73%  
168 6% 69%  
169 7% 63% Last Result
170 11% 56% Median
171 8% 46%  
172 7% 38%  
173 6% 31%  
174 4% 25%  
175 4% 21%  
176 5% 17%  
177 4% 12%  
178 4% 8%  
179 2% 4%  
180 1.3% 3%  
181 0.6% 1.3%  
182 0.3% 0.7%  
183 0.2% 0.4%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.2% 99.8%  
130 0.2% 99.6%  
131 0.3% 99.4%  
132 0.3% 99.1%  
133 0.4% 98.7%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 1.2% 98%  
136 2% 96%  
137 3% 94%  
138 3% 91%  
139 4% 88%  
140 3% 84%  
141 3% 81%  
142 4% 78%  
143 5% 74%  
144 7% 69%  
145 8% 62%  
146 9% 54% Median
147 10% 46%  
148 7% 36% Last Result
149 5% 29%  
150 4% 24%  
151 4% 21%  
152 5% 17%  
153 5% 12%  
154 3% 7%  
155 2% 4%  
156 1.4% 3%  
157 0.6% 1.3%  
158 0.2% 0.7%  
159 0.2% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.2% 99.8%  
130 0.2% 99.6%  
131 0.3% 99.4%  
132 0.3% 99.1%  
133 0.4% 98.7%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 1.2% 98%  
136 2% 96%  
137 3% 94%  
138 3% 91%  
139 4% 88%  
140 3% 84%  
141 3% 81%  
142 4% 78%  
143 5% 74%  
144 7% 69%  
145 8% 62%  
146 9% 54% Median
147 10% 46%  
148 7% 36% Last Result
149 5% 29%  
150 4% 24%  
151 4% 21%  
152 5% 17%  
153 5% 12%  
154 3% 7%  
155 2% 4%  
156 1.4% 3%  
157 0.6% 1.3%  
158 0.2% 0.7%  
159 0.2% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.3% 99.7%  
104 0.3% 99.4%  
105 0.4% 99.1%  
106 0.7% 98.7%  
107 0.9% 98%  
108 1.3% 97%  
109 2% 96%  
110 2% 93%  
111 4% 91%  
112 4% 87%  
113 6% 82%  
114 6% 77% Last Result
115 8% 71%  
116 10% 62%  
117 8% 52% Median
118 6% 45%  
119 7% 39%  
120 6% 32%  
121 5% 27%  
122 4% 21%  
123 5% 17%  
124 4% 12%  
125 4% 9%  
126 2% 5%  
127 1.1% 3%  
128 0.9% 2%  
129 0.4% 1.1%  
130 0.2% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.3% 99.7%  
104 0.3% 99.4%  
105 0.4% 99.1%  
106 0.7% 98.7%  
107 0.9% 98%  
108 1.3% 97%  
109 2% 96%  
110 2% 93%  
111 4% 91%  
112 4% 87%  
113 6% 82%  
114 6% 77% Last Result
115 8% 71%  
116 10% 62%  
117 8% 52% Median
118 6% 45%  
119 7% 39%  
120 6% 32%  
121 5% 27%  
122 4% 21%  
123 5% 17%  
124 4% 12%  
125 4% 9%  
126 2% 5%  
127 1.1% 3%  
128 0.9% 2%  
129 0.4% 1.1%  
130 0.2% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.5% 99.5%  
98 0.9% 99.0%  
99 1.2% 98%  
100 1.3% 97%  
101 3% 96%  
102 4% 93%  
103 5% 89%  
104 5% 84%  
105 6% 79%  
106 9% 73%  
107 7% 64% Median
108 6% 57%  
109 8% 51%  
110 7% 43% Last Result
111 6% 35%  
112 4% 29%  
113 4% 25%  
114 4% 21%  
115 3% 17%  
116 3% 14%  
117 2% 11%  
118 2% 9%  
119 1.4% 7%  
120 1.5% 6%  
121 0.9% 4%  
122 0.9% 3%  
123 0.7% 2%  
124 0.5% 2%  
125 0.4% 1.1%  
126 0.3% 0.7%  
127 0.1% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.5% 99.5%  
82 0.5% 99.0%  
83 0.8% 98.5%  
84 0.9% 98%  
85 1.2% 97%  
86 2% 96%  
87 3% 93%  
88 5% 91%  
89 6% 86%  
90 8% 80%  
91 10% 71%  
92 11% 61%  
93 9% 50% Last Result, Median
94 5% 42%  
95 6% 37%  
96 4% 31%  
97 5% 27%  
98 4% 22%  
99 6% 18%  
100 5% 12%  
101 3% 6%  
102 1.4% 3%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.4% 1.1%  
105 0.2% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.5% 99.5%  
82 0.5% 99.0%  
83 0.8% 98.5%  
84 0.9% 98%  
85 1.2% 97%  
86 2% 96%  
87 3% 93%  
88 5% 91%  
89 6% 86%  
90 8% 80%  
91 10% 71%  
92 11% 61%  
93 9% 50% Last Result, Median
94 5% 42%  
95 6% 37%  
96 4% 31%  
97 5% 27%  
98 4% 22%  
99 6% 18%  
100 5% 12%  
101 3% 6%  
102 1.4% 3%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.4% 1.1%  
105 0.2% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.6% 99.6%  
44 0.8% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 93%  
48 5% 89%  
49 7% 84%  
50 8% 76%  
51 7% 69%  
52 9% 62%  
53 9% 52% Median
54 11% 43%  
55 10% 32% Last Result
56 9% 22%  
57 5% 13%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.6% 1.3%  
62 0.4% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations