Opinion Poll by INSCOP, 15–27 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 35.4% 33.6–37.2% 33.2–37.7% 32.7–38.1% 31.9–39.0%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 21.9% 20.5–23.5% 20.0–24.0% 19.7–24.4% 19.0–25.1%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 17.1% 15.8–18.6% 15.4–19.0% 15.1–19.4% 14.5–20.1%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 9.8% 8.8–11.0% 8.5–11.3% 8.2–11.6% 7.8–12.2%
PRO România 4.1% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.4–5.7% 3.1–6.2%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 2.9% 2.4–3.6% 2.2–3.8% 2.1–4.0% 1.9–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 130 122–137 120–139 118–141 115–148
Partidul Național Liberal 93 80 74–86 73–88 71–90 68–94
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 63 57–68 56–70 54–71 52–74
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 36 32–40 31–42 30–42 0–44
PRO România 0 0 0–18 0–19 0–20 0–21
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100% Last Result
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.2% 99.7%  
115 0.5% 99.6%  
116 0.7% 99.1%  
117 0.6% 98%  
118 0.5% 98%  
119 1.2% 97%  
120 1.3% 96%  
121 3% 95%  
122 4% 92%  
123 2% 88%  
124 3% 86%  
125 3% 83%  
126 6% 79%  
127 7% 73%  
128 8% 66%  
129 5% 58%  
130 7% 53% Median
131 6% 46%  
132 6% 40%  
133 6% 33%  
134 7% 28%  
135 6% 21%  
136 3% 15%  
137 4% 12%  
138 1.3% 8%  
139 2% 7%  
140 1.3% 5%  
141 1.4% 3%  
142 0.5% 2%  
143 0.5% 2%  
144 0.2% 1.1%  
145 0.1% 0.9%  
146 0.1% 0.8%  
147 0.1% 0.7%  
148 0.1% 0.6%  
149 0.1% 0.5%  
150 0% 0.4%  
151 0.1% 0.3%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.4%  
70 0.6% 99.1%  
71 1.1% 98.5%  
72 2% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 4% 94%  
75 5% 90%  
76 7% 85%  
77 5% 78%  
78 9% 73%  
79 8% 64%  
80 7% 56% Median
81 5% 49%  
82 8% 43%  
83 8% 35%  
84 7% 28%  
85 5% 20%  
86 6% 16%  
87 3% 9%  
88 2% 6%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.2% 3%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.4%  
93 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 0.9% 99.5%  
54 1.3% 98.5%  
55 1.5% 97%  
56 4% 96%  
57 3% 92%  
58 6% 89%  
59 4% 83%  
60 6% 79%  
61 10% 73%  
62 11% 63%  
63 12% 52% Median
64 7% 39%  
65 6% 32%  
66 8% 26%  
67 6% 18%  
68 3% 12%  
69 4% 9%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.3% 4%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 0% 98.8%  
2 0% 98.8%  
3 0% 98.8%  
4 0% 98.8%  
5 0% 98.8%  
6 0% 98.8%  
7 0% 98.8%  
8 0% 98.8%  
9 0% 98.8%  
10 0% 98.8%  
11 0% 98.8%  
12 0% 98.8%  
13 0% 98.8%  
14 0% 98.8%  
15 0% 98.8%  
16 0% 98.8%  
17 0% 98.8%  
18 0% 98.8%  
19 0% 98.8%  
20 0% 98.8%  
21 0% 98.8%  
22 0% 98.8%  
23 0% 98.8%  
24 0% 98.8%  
25 0% 98.8%  
26 0% 98.8%  
27 0% 98.8%  
28 0.2% 98.8%  
29 0.7% 98.6%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 6% 92%  
33 11% 85%  
34 10% 74%  
35 9% 64%  
36 14% 54% Median
37 11% 40%  
38 8% 29%  
39 8% 21%  
40 5% 13%  
41 3% 8%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.9%  
45 0.2% 0.5%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 18%  
2 0% 18%  
3 0% 18%  
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 0% 18%  
7 0% 18%  
8 0% 18%  
9 0% 18%  
10 0% 18%  
11 0% 18%  
12 0% 18%  
13 0% 18%  
14 0% 18%  
15 0% 18%  
16 0% 18%  
17 3% 18%  
18 8% 15%  
19 4% 8%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.7% 1.1%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 133 0% 126–142 124–145 122–148 119–153
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 116 0% 109–123 106–125 104–126 90–129
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 116 0% 109–123 106–125 104–126 90–129
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 80 0% 74–86 73–88 71–90 68–94
Partidul Național Liberal 93 80 0% 74–86 73–88 71–90 68–94
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 36 0% 32–40 31–42 30–42 0–45

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100% Last Result
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.3% 99.7%  
120 0.5% 99.5%  
121 1.0% 99.0%  
122 0.9% 98%  
123 1.3% 97%  
124 2% 96%  
125 2% 93%  
126 4% 91%  
127 6% 87%  
128 7% 81%  
129 5% 75%  
130 7% 70% Median
131 6% 63%  
132 7% 57%  
133 6% 51%  
134 7% 45%  
135 6% 38%  
136 4% 32%  
137 4% 28%  
138 3% 24%  
139 3% 20%  
140 3% 17%  
141 3% 14%  
142 1.4% 11%  
143 2% 10%  
144 2% 8%  
145 2% 6%  
146 1.0% 4%  
147 0.9% 3%  
148 0.6% 3%  
149 0.6% 2%  
150 0.2% 1.3%  
151 0.3% 1.2%  
152 0.2% 0.8%  
153 0.2% 0.6%  
154 0.1% 0.4%  
155 0% 0.3%  
156 0% 0.3%  
157 0% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.1% 99.7%  
89 0% 99.6%  
90 0.2% 99.6%  
91 0% 99.4%  
92 0.1% 99.4%  
93 0.1% 99.3%  
94 0.1% 99.2%  
95 0.1% 99.1%  
96 0.1% 99.0%  
97 0.1% 99.0%  
98 0.1% 98.9%  
99 0% 98.8%  
100 0.1% 98.8%  
101 0.2% 98.7%  
102 0.4% 98%  
103 0.5% 98%  
104 0.4% 98%  
105 1.1% 97%  
106 1.1% 96%  
107 3% 95%  
108 2% 92%  
109 3% 90%  
110 3% 88%  
111 6% 85%  
112 5% 79%  
113 3% 74%  
114 8% 71%  
115 8% 63%  
116 7% 55% Median
117 5% 48%  
118 8% 43%  
119 7% 35%  
120 7% 29%  
121 6% 22%  
122 4% 16%  
123 4% 12%  
124 3% 8%  
125 2% 5%  
126 0.7% 3%  
127 0.8% 2%  
128 0.8% 2%  
129 0.4% 0.9%  
130 0.1% 0.4%  
131 0.2% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.1% 99.7%  
89 0% 99.6%  
90 0.2% 99.6%  
91 0% 99.4%  
92 0.1% 99.4%  
93 0.1% 99.3%  
94 0.1% 99.2%  
95 0.1% 99.1%  
96 0.1% 99.0%  
97 0.1% 99.0%  
98 0.1% 98.9%  
99 0% 98.8%  
100 0.1% 98.8%  
101 0.2% 98.7%  
102 0.4% 98%  
103 0.5% 98%  
104 0.4% 98%  
105 1.1% 97%  
106 1.1% 96%  
107 3% 95%  
108 2% 92%  
109 3% 90%  
110 3% 88%  
111 6% 85%  
112 5% 79%  
113 3% 74%  
114 8% 71%  
115 8% 63%  
116 7% 55% Median
117 5% 48%  
118 8% 43%  
119 7% 35%  
120 7% 29%  
121 6% 22%  
122 4% 16%  
123 4% 12%  
124 3% 8%  
125 2% 5%  
126 0.7% 3%  
127 0.8% 2%  
128 0.8% 2%  
129 0.4% 0.9%  
130 0.1% 0.4%  
131 0.2% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.4%  
70 0.6% 99.1%  
71 1.1% 98.5%  
72 2% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 4% 94%  
75 5% 90%  
76 7% 85%  
77 5% 78%  
78 9% 73%  
79 8% 64%  
80 7% 56% Median
81 5% 49%  
82 8% 43%  
83 8% 35%  
84 7% 28%  
85 5% 20%  
86 6% 16%  
87 3% 9%  
88 2% 6%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.2% 3%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.5%  
93 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.3% 99.4%  
70 0.6% 99.1%  
71 1.1% 98.5%  
72 2% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 4% 94%  
75 5% 90%  
76 7% 85%  
77 5% 78%  
78 9% 73%  
79 8% 64%  
80 7% 56% Median
81 5% 49%  
82 8% 43%  
83 8% 35%  
84 7% 28%  
85 5% 20%  
86 6% 16%  
87 3% 9%  
88 2% 6%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.2% 3%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.4%  
93 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 0% 98.8%  
2 0% 98.8%  
3 0% 98.8%  
4 0% 98.8%  
5 0% 98.8%  
6 0% 98.8%  
7 0% 98.8%  
8 0% 98.8%  
9 0% 98.8%  
10 0% 98.8%  
11 0% 98.8%  
12 0% 98.8%  
13 0% 98.8%  
14 0% 98.8%  
15 0% 98.8%  
16 0% 98.8%  
17 0% 98.8%  
18 0% 98.8%  
19 0% 98.8%  
20 0% 98.8%  
21 0% 98.8%  
22 0% 98.8%  
23 0% 98.8%  
24 0% 98.8%  
25 0% 98.8%  
26 0% 98.8%  
27 0% 98.8%  
28 0.2% 98.8%  
29 0.7% 98.6%  
30 2% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 6% 92%  
33 11% 85%  
34 10% 74%  
35 9% 64%  
36 14% 54% Median
37 11% 40%  
38 8% 29%  
39 8% 21%  
40 5% 13%  
41 3% 8%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.9%  
45 0.2% 0.5%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations