Opinion Poll by INSOMAR, 28 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 31.6% 29.7–33.5% 29.2–34.0% 28.8–34.5% 27.9–35.4%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 25.8% 24.1–27.6% 23.7–28.2% 23.2–28.6% 22.5–29.5%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.0% 14.8–19.4% 14.2–20.2%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.0%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
PRO România 4.1% 2.3% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.8%
Alianța pentru Patrie 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.7–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 106 101–111 99–113 97–114 93–117
Partidul Național Liberal 93 86 81–91 79–93 78–94 75–98
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 56 51–61 49–64 48–65 46–67
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 50 45–54 44–56 42–57 40–60
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 15 12–18 11–19 11–19 10–21
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alianța pentru Patrie 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0.3% 99.6%  
94 0.4% 99.4%  
95 0.7% 98.9%  
96 0.7% 98%  
97 0.9% 98%  
98 0.8% 97%  
99 2% 96%  
100 3% 94%  
101 5% 92%  
102 5% 87%  
103 10% 81%  
104 4% 71%  
105 4% 67%  
106 17% 63% Median
107 7% 46%  
108 12% 39%  
109 7% 26%  
110 8% 19% Last Result
111 2% 11%  
112 3% 9%  
113 3% 6%  
114 2% 3%  
115 0.6% 2%  
116 0.4% 1.1%  
117 0.3% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 0.8% 99.2%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 1.2% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 3% 94%  
81 5% 91%  
82 8% 86%  
83 6% 79%  
84 12% 73%  
85 7% 61%  
86 14% 54% Median
87 8% 40%  
88 6% 33%  
89 9% 26%  
90 5% 17%  
91 3% 12%  
92 3% 10%  
93 3% 6% Last Result
94 1.1% 4%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.1%  
98 0.3% 0.7%  
99 0.3% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.4% 99.5%  
48 3% 99.1%  
49 2% 96%  
50 2% 94%  
51 7% 92%  
52 4% 84%  
53 7% 81%  
54 18% 74%  
55 4% 55%  
56 10% 51% Median
57 13% 41%  
58 5% 28%  
59 7% 23%  
60 3% 17%  
61 4% 14%  
62 3% 10%  
63 1.1% 6%  
64 2% 5%  
65 0.7% 3%  
66 0.5% 2%  
67 1.1% 1.4%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 0.7% 99.4%  
42 2% 98.7%  
43 1.1% 97%  
44 2% 96%  
45 9% 94%  
46 8% 85%  
47 7% 77%  
48 6% 70%  
49 10% 64%  
50 19% 54% Median
51 10% 35%  
52 5% 25%  
53 4% 19%  
54 7% 16%  
55 3% 8% Last Result
56 3% 6%  
57 0.6% 3%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.9%  
60 0.3% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 1.0% 99.6%  
11 5% 98.6%  
12 5% 94%  
13 12% 89%  
14 22% 77%  
15 19% 55% Median
16 20% 36%  
17 5% 16%  
18 6% 12%  
19 3% 5%  
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Alianța pentru Patrie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Patrie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 150 0.2% 145–156 143–158 141–160 138–163
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 150 0.2% 145–156 143–158 141–160 138–163
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 135 0% 130–141 128–144 126–144 124–148
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 135 0% 130–141 128–144 126–144 124–148
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 106 0% 101–111 99–113 97–114 93–117
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 101 0% 96–106 94–108 92–110 89–113
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 101 0% 96–106 94–108 92–110 89–113
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 86 0% 81–91 79–93 78–94 75–98
Partidul Național Liberal 93 86 0% 81–91 79–93 78–94 75–98
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 50 0% 45–54 44–56 42–57 40–60

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.2% 99.7%  
139 0.4% 99.5%  
140 0.7% 99.1%  
141 1.1% 98%  
142 2% 97%  
143 1.1% 96%  
144 3% 95%  
145 8% 92%  
146 3% 84%  
147 8% 81%  
148 9% 74%  
149 10% 65%  
150 7% 55%  
151 5% 48% Median
152 19% 43%  
153 6% 24%  
154 3% 18%  
155 5% 16%  
156 2% 10%  
157 3% 8%  
158 0.9% 5%  
159 1.2% 4%  
160 2% 3%  
161 0.2% 1.4%  
162 0.5% 1.2%  
163 0.3% 0.7%  
164 0.1% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.2% Majority
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0.1% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.2% 99.7%  
139 0.4% 99.5%  
140 0.7% 99.1%  
141 1.1% 98%  
142 2% 97%  
143 1.1% 96%  
144 3% 95%  
145 8% 92%  
146 3% 84%  
147 8% 81%  
148 9% 74%  
149 10% 65%  
150 7% 55%  
151 5% 48% Median
152 19% 43%  
153 6% 24%  
154 3% 18%  
155 5% 16%  
156 2% 10%  
157 3% 8%  
158 0.9% 5%  
159 1.2% 4%  
160 2% 3%  
161 0.2% 1.4%  
162 0.5% 1.2%  
163 0.3% 0.7%  
164 0.1% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.2% Majority
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0.1% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8%  
123 0.3% 99.8%  
124 0.4% 99.5%  
125 0.7% 99.1%  
126 1.2% 98%  
127 2% 97%  
128 1.2% 95%  
129 2% 94%  
130 6% 92%  
131 3% 86%  
132 9% 82%  
133 10% 73%  
134 6% 63%  
135 7% 57%  
136 13% 50% Median
137 3% 37%  
138 13% 34%  
139 7% 21%  
140 3% 15%  
141 2% 12%  
142 3% 10%  
143 1.2% 7%  
144 3% 5%  
145 0.9% 2%  
146 0.5% 2%  
147 0.4% 1.1%  
148 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8%  
123 0.3% 99.8%  
124 0.4% 99.5%  
125 0.7% 99.1%  
126 1.2% 98%  
127 2% 97%  
128 1.2% 95%  
129 2% 94%  
130 6% 92%  
131 3% 86%  
132 9% 82%  
133 10% 73%  
134 6% 63%  
135 7% 57%  
136 13% 50% Median
137 3% 37%  
138 13% 34%  
139 7% 21%  
140 3% 15%  
141 2% 12%  
142 3% 10%  
143 1.2% 7%  
144 3% 5%  
145 0.9% 2%  
146 0.5% 2%  
147 0.4% 1.1%  
148 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.7%  
93 0.3% 99.6%  
94 0.4% 99.4%  
95 0.7% 98.9%  
96 0.7% 98%  
97 0.9% 98%  
98 0.8% 97%  
99 2% 96%  
100 3% 94%  
101 5% 92%  
102 5% 87%  
103 10% 81%  
104 4% 71%  
105 4% 67%  
106 17% 63% Median
107 7% 46%  
108 12% 39%  
109 7% 26%  
110 8% 19% Last Result
111 2% 11%  
112 3% 9%  
113 3% 6%  
114 2% 3%  
115 0.6% 2%  
116 0.4% 1.1%  
117 0.3% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.4% 99.8%  
90 0.3% 99.4%  
91 1.2% 99.2%  
92 0.6% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 2% 95%  
95 3% 93%  
96 7% 90%  
97 4% 83%  
98 13% 78%  
99 3% 65%  
100 11% 62%  
101 4% 51% Median
102 13% 46%  
103 10% 33%  
104 5% 23%  
105 6% 18%  
106 2% 12%  
107 2% 9%  
108 3% 7%  
109 1.3% 4%  
110 0.7% 3%  
111 0.8% 2%  
112 0.4% 1.2%  
113 0.4% 0.8%  
114 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.4% 99.8%  
90 0.3% 99.4%  
91 1.2% 99.2%  
92 0.6% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 2% 95%  
95 3% 93%  
96 7% 90%  
97 4% 83%  
98 13% 78%  
99 3% 65%  
100 11% 62%  
101 4% 51% Median
102 13% 46%  
103 10% 33%  
104 5% 23%  
105 6% 18%  
106 2% 12%  
107 2% 9%  
108 3% 7%  
109 1.3% 4%  
110 0.7% 3%  
111 0.8% 2%  
112 0.4% 1.2%  
113 0.4% 0.8%  
114 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 0.8% 99.2%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 1.2% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 3% 94%  
81 5% 91%  
82 8% 86%  
83 6% 79%  
84 12% 73%  
85 7% 61%  
86 14% 54% Median
87 8% 40%  
88 6% 33%  
89 9% 26%  
90 5% 17%  
91 3% 12%  
92 3% 10%  
93 3% 6% Last Result
94 1.1% 4%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.1%  
98 0.3% 0.7%  
99 0.3% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 0.8% 99.2%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 1.2% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 3% 94%  
81 5% 91%  
82 8% 86%  
83 6% 79%  
84 12% 73%  
85 7% 61%  
86 14% 54% Median
87 8% 40%  
88 6% 33%  
89 9% 26%  
90 5% 17%  
91 3% 12%  
92 3% 10%  
93 3% 6% Last Result
94 1.1% 4%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.1%  
98 0.3% 0.7%  
99 0.3% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 0.7% 99.4%  
42 2% 98.7%  
43 1.1% 97%  
44 2% 96%  
45 9% 94%  
46 8% 85%  
47 7% 77%  
48 6% 70%  
49 10% 64%  
50 19% 54% Median
51 10% 35%  
52 5% 25%  
53 4% 19%  
54 7% 16%  
55 3% 8% Last Result
56 3% 6%  
57 0.6% 3%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.9%  
60 0.3% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations