Opinion Poll by Sociopol, 11–15 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partidul Social Democrat | 28.9% | 32.0% | 30.2–34.0% | 29.7–34.5% | 29.2–35.0% | 28.3–35.9% |
| Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor | 9.1% | 21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 18.9–23.2% | 18.5–23.6% | 17.8–24.4% |
| Partidul Național Liberal | 25.2% | 20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.1% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS | 15.4% | 13.0% | 11.7–14.4% | 11.3–14.8% | 11.0–15.2% | 10.4–15.9% |
| Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partidul Social Democrat | 110 | 109 | 103–115 | 101–117 | 99–119 | 96–122 |
| Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor | 33 | 71 | 66–77 | 64–78 | 63–80 | 60–83 |
| Partidul Național Liberal | 93 | 68 | 62–73 | 61–75 | 60–76 | 57–79 |
| Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS | 55 | 44 | 39–49 | 38–50 | 37–51 | 35–54 |
| Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România | 21 | 20 | 17–23 | 16–25 | 15–26 | 14–27 |
Partidul Social Democrat
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 97 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 99 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 100 | 2% | 97% | |
| 101 | 2% | 96% | |
| 102 | 3% | 93% | |
| 103 | 4% | 90% | |
| 104 | 5% | 86% | |
| 105 | 6% | 81% | |
| 106 | 7% | 75% | |
| 107 | 7% | 68% | |
| 108 | 8% | 61% | |
| 109 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 110 | 8% | 45% | Last Result |
| 111 | 7% | 37% | |
| 112 | 6% | 29% | |
| 113 | 6% | 23% | |
| 114 | 5% | 17% | |
| 115 | 4% | 13% | |
| 116 | 3% | 9% | |
| 117 | 2% | 6% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 119 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% |
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98% | |
| 64 | 2% | 96% | |
| 65 | 3% | 94% | |
| 66 | 5% | 90% | |
| 67 | 6% | 86% | |
| 68 | 7% | 79% | |
| 69 | 8% | 72% | |
| 70 | 9% | 64% | |
| 71 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 72 | 9% | 46% | |
| 73 | 8% | 37% | |
| 74 | 7% | 29% | |
| 75 | 6% | 22% | |
| 76 | 5% | 16% | |
| 77 | 4% | 11% | |
| 78 | 3% | 7% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Partidul Național Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 96% | |
| 62 | 4% | 93% | |
| 63 | 5% | 89% | |
| 64 | 8% | 84% | |
| 65 | 8% | 76% | |
| 66 | 8% | 69% | |
| 67 | 10% | 61% | |
| 68 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 69 | 7% | 42% | |
| 70 | 10% | 35% | |
| 71 | 6% | 25% | |
| 72 | 6% | 19% | |
| 73 | 5% | 13% | |
| 74 | 3% | 9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 6% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98% | |
| 38 | 3% | 96% | |
| 39 | 4% | 93% | |
| 40 | 6% | 89% | |
| 41 | 7% | 83% | |
| 42 | 9% | 76% | |
| 43 | 11% | 67% | |
| 44 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 45 | 11% | 45% | |
| 46 | 9% | 34% | |
| 47 | 8% | 25% | |
| 48 | 7% | 17% | |
| 49 | 4% | 11% | |
| 50 | 3% | 6% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 16 | 4% | 97% | |
| 17 | 7% | 93% | |
| 18 | 10% | 86% | |
| 19 | 14% | 76% | |
| 20 | 17% | 62% | Median |
| 21 | 16% | 44% | Last Result |
| 22 | 11% | 28% | |
| 23 | 7% | 17% | |
| 24 | 5% | 10% | |
| 25 | 3% | 5% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România | 169 | 132 | 0% | 126–139 | 124–140 | 122–142 | 119–145 |
| Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS | 148 | 112 | 0% | 106–118 | 104–120 | 102–121 | 99–125 |
| Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România | 114 | 88 | 0% | 82–94 | 80–96 | 79–97 | 76–100 |
| Partidul Național Liberal | 93 | 68 | 0% | 62–73 | 61–75 | 60–76 | 57–79 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 122 | 2% | 98% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 124 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 125 | 4% | 94% | |
| 126 | 6% | 91% | |
| 127 | 6% | 85% | |
| 128 | 3% | 79% | |
| 129 | 3% | 76% | |
| 130 | 9% | 72% | |
| 131 | 11% | 63% | |
| 132 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 133 | 4% | 43% | |
| 134 | 5% | 38% | |
| 135 | 8% | 33% | |
| 136 | 8% | 25% | |
| 137 | 4% | 17% | |
| 138 | 2% | 13% | |
| 139 | 3% | 11% | |
| 140 | 3% | 8% | |
| 141 | 2% | 5% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 102 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 103 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 104 | 2% | 96% | |
| 105 | 3% | 93% | |
| 106 | 5% | 90% | |
| 107 | 6% | 85% | |
| 108 | 5% | 80% | |
| 109 | 8% | 75% | |
| 110 | 6% | 68% | |
| 111 | 10% | 61% | |
| 112 | 9% | 52% | Median |
| 113 | 6% | 43% | |
| 114 | 8% | 36% | |
| 115 | 5% | 29% | |
| 116 | 7% | 23% | |
| 117 | 4% | 16% | |
| 118 | 3% | 12% | |
| 119 | 3% | 9% | |
| 120 | 2% | 6% | |
| 121 | 2% | 4% | |
| 122 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 78 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 79 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 80 | 2% | 97% | |
| 81 | 4% | 95% | |
| 82 | 3% | 91% | |
| 83 | 5% | 88% | |
| 84 | 7% | 83% | |
| 85 | 8% | 76% | |
| 86 | 7% | 69% | |
| 87 | 8% | 62% | |
| 88 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 89 | 8% | 44% | |
| 90 | 7% | 37% | |
| 91 | 7% | 30% | |
| 92 | 6% | 23% | |
| 93 | 4% | 16% | |
| 94 | 4% | 12% | |
| 95 | 3% | 9% | |
| 96 | 2% | 5% | |
| 97 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 98 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 99 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 100 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | |
| 108 | 0% | 0% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0% | |
| 110 | 0% | 0% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0% | |
| 112 | 0% | 0% | |
| 113 | 0% | 0% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 96% | |
| 62 | 4% | 93% | |
| 63 | 5% | 89% | |
| 64 | 8% | 84% | |
| 65 | 8% | 76% | |
| 66 | 8% | 69% | |
| 67 | 10% | 61% | |
| 68 | 9% | 51% | Median |
| 69 | 7% | 42% | |
| 70 | 10% | 35% | |
| 71 | 6% | 25% | |
| 72 | 6% | 19% | |
| 73 | 5% | 13% | |
| 74 | 3% | 9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 6% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Sociopol
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–15 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.79%