Opinion Poll by Sociopol, 17–22 December 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partidul Social Democrat |
28.9% |
33.0% |
31.1–34.9% |
30.6–35.5% |
30.1–36.0% |
29.2–36.9% |
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor |
9.1% |
23.0% |
21.3–24.8% |
20.9–25.3% |
20.5–25.7% |
19.7–26.6% |
Partidul Național Liberal |
25.2% |
15.0% |
13.6–16.5% |
13.2–17.0% |
12.9–17.3% |
12.3–18.1% |
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS |
15.4% |
12.0% |
10.8–13.4% |
10.4–13.8% |
10.1–14.2% |
9.6–14.9% |
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România |
5.7% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
4.0–6.3% |
3.8–6.5% |
3.5–7.0% |
PRO România |
4.1% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.9–4.7% |
Forța Dreptei |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.9–4.7% |
Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
4.8% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–2.9% |
1.3–3.1% |
1.1–3.4% |
Partidul Ecologist Român |
1.2% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Alianța pentru Patrie |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Partidul Social Democrat
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-seats-pmf-partidulsocialdemocrat.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
101 |
0% |
100% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
103 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
104 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
105 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
106 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
107 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
108 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
109 |
4% |
97% |
|
110 |
0.9% |
93% |
Last Result |
111 |
5% |
92% |
|
112 |
6% |
87% |
|
113 |
4% |
81% |
|
114 |
6% |
77% |
|
115 |
6% |
71% |
|
116 |
2% |
64% |
|
117 |
7% |
62% |
|
118 |
12% |
56% |
Median |
119 |
9% |
43% |
|
120 |
6% |
34% |
|
121 |
4% |
28% |
|
122 |
8% |
24% |
|
123 |
7% |
15% |
|
124 |
1.4% |
8% |
|
125 |
3% |
7% |
|
126 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
127 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
128 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
129 |
0.8% |
1.5% |
|
130 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
131 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
132 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
133 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-seats-pmf-alianțapentruunirearomânilor.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
100% |
|
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0% |
100% |
|
63 |
0% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
100% |
|
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0% |
100% |
|
67 |
0% |
100% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
70 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
71 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
72 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
73 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
74 |
2% |
95% |
|
75 |
2% |
94% |
|
76 |
3% |
92% |
|
77 |
5% |
88% |
|
78 |
6% |
83% |
|
79 |
7% |
77% |
|
80 |
16% |
70% |
|
81 |
10% |
54% |
Median |
82 |
15% |
44% |
|
83 |
4% |
29% |
|
84 |
5% |
25% |
|
85 |
3% |
20% |
|
86 |
5% |
17% |
|
87 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
88 |
3% |
12% |
|
89 |
2% |
9% |
|
90 |
2% |
7% |
|
91 |
4% |
5% |
|
92 |
0.7% |
1.3% |
|
93 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
94 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
95 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
96 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
97 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Național Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-seats-pmf-partidulnaționalliberal.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
41 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
44 |
1.2% |
98.8% |
|
45 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
46 |
2% |
97% |
|
47 |
5% |
95% |
|
48 |
14% |
90% |
|
49 |
6% |
77% |
|
50 |
7% |
71% |
|
51 |
6% |
64% |
|
52 |
8% |
58% |
|
53 |
6% |
51% |
Median |
54 |
9% |
44% |
|
55 |
5% |
35% |
|
56 |
7% |
30% |
|
57 |
6% |
23% |
|
58 |
4% |
17% |
|
59 |
7% |
13% |
|
60 |
3% |
6% |
|
61 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
62 |
2% |
3% |
|
63 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-seats-pmf-alianța2020usr-plus.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
35 |
1.2% |
99.2% |
|
36 |
5% |
98% |
|
37 |
4% |
93% |
|
38 |
4% |
90% |
|
39 |
4% |
86% |
|
40 |
5% |
81% |
|
41 |
10% |
76% |
|
42 |
10% |
66% |
|
43 |
5% |
56% |
|
44 |
10% |
51% |
Median |
45 |
13% |
41% |
|
46 |
5% |
28% |
|
47 |
7% |
23% |
|
48 |
7% |
16% |
|
49 |
6% |
9% |
|
50 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
52 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
56 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-seats-pmf-uniuneademocratămaghiarădinromânia.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
0.6% |
99.5% |
|
13 |
7% |
98.8% |
|
14 |
4% |
91% |
|
15 |
9% |
87% |
|
16 |
20% |
78% |
|
17 |
15% |
58% |
Median |
18 |
11% |
43% |
|
19 |
15% |
32% |
|
20 |
5% |
17% |
|
21 |
4% |
12% |
Last Result |
22 |
5% |
8% |
|
23 |
2% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.5% |
1.5% |
|
25 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
PRO România
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-seats-pmf-proromânia.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forța Dreptei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-seats-pmf-forțadreptei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
11 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
16 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Mișcarea Populară
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-seats-pmf-partidulmișcareapopulară.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Partidul Ecologist Român
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Ecologist Român page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-seats-pmf-partidulecologistromân.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Alianța pentru Patrie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Patrie page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-seats-pmf-alianțapentrupatrie.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România |
110 |
118 |
0% |
111–123 |
109–125 |
108–126 |
104–130 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
169 |
112 |
0% |
107–120 |
103–122 |
103–123 |
101–126 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România |
169 |
112 |
0% |
107–120 |
103–122 |
103–123 |
101–126 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
148 |
96 |
0% |
90–102 |
88–104 |
87–104 |
84–108 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS |
148 |
96 |
0% |
90–102 |
88–104 |
87–104 |
84–108 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
114 |
70 |
0% |
64–78 |
63–79 |
61–80 |
60–82 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România |
114 |
70 |
0% |
64–78 |
63–79 |
61–80 |
60–82 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
93 |
53 |
0% |
48–59 |
46–60 |
45–62 |
43–63 |
Partidul Național Liberal |
93 |
53 |
0% |
48–59 |
46–60 |
45–62 |
43–63 |
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
55 |
44 |
0% |
37–48 |
36–49 |
36–49 |
34–53 |
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-coalitions-seats-pmf-psd–pro.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
101 |
0% |
100% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
103 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
104 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
105 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
106 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
107 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
108 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
109 |
4% |
97% |
|
110 |
0.9% |
93% |
Last Result |
111 |
5% |
92% |
|
112 |
6% |
87% |
|
113 |
4% |
81% |
|
114 |
6% |
77% |
|
115 |
6% |
71% |
|
116 |
2% |
65% |
|
117 |
7% |
62% |
|
118 |
12% |
56% |
Median |
119 |
9% |
43% |
|
120 |
6% |
34% |
|
121 |
4% |
28% |
|
122 |
8% |
24% |
|
123 |
7% |
15% |
|
124 |
1.4% |
8% |
|
125 |
3% |
7% |
|
126 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
127 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
128 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
129 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
130 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
131 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
132 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
133 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
134 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–a2020–udmr–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
96 |
0% |
100% |
|
97 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
98 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
99 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
100 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
101 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
102 |
0.8% |
99.1% |
|
103 |
4% |
98% |
|
104 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
105 |
2% |
94% |
|
106 |
1.4% |
92% |
|
107 |
1.5% |
90% |
|
108 |
2% |
89% |
|
109 |
9% |
86% |
|
110 |
6% |
78% |
|
111 |
13% |
72% |
|
112 |
10% |
59% |
|
113 |
6% |
49% |
|
114 |
3% |
43% |
Median |
115 |
5% |
39% |
|
116 |
4% |
34% |
|
117 |
7% |
30% |
|
118 |
6% |
23% |
|
119 |
4% |
17% |
|
120 |
6% |
14% |
|
121 |
1.4% |
8% |
|
122 |
2% |
7% |
|
123 |
3% |
5% |
|
124 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
125 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
126 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
127 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
128 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
129 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
130 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
|
138 |
0% |
0% |
|
139 |
0% |
0% |
|
140 |
0% |
0% |
|
141 |
0% |
0% |
|
142 |
0% |
0% |
|
143 |
0% |
0% |
|
144 |
0% |
0% |
|
145 |
0% |
0% |
|
146 |
0% |
0% |
|
147 |
0% |
0% |
|
148 |
0% |
0% |
|
149 |
0% |
0% |
|
150 |
0% |
0% |
|
151 |
0% |
0% |
|
152 |
0% |
0% |
|
153 |
0% |
0% |
|
154 |
0% |
0% |
|
155 |
0% |
0% |
|
156 |
0% |
0% |
|
157 |
0% |
0% |
|
158 |
0% |
0% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–a2020–udmr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
96 |
0% |
100% |
|
97 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
98 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
99 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
100 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
101 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
102 |
0.8% |
99.1% |
|
103 |
4% |
98% |
|
104 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
105 |
2% |
94% |
|
106 |
1.4% |
92% |
|
107 |
1.5% |
90% |
|
108 |
2% |
89% |
|
109 |
9% |
86% |
|
110 |
6% |
78% |
|
111 |
13% |
72% |
|
112 |
10% |
59% |
|
113 |
6% |
49% |
|
114 |
3% |
43% |
Median |
115 |
5% |
39% |
|
116 |
4% |
34% |
|
117 |
7% |
30% |
|
118 |
6% |
23% |
|
119 |
4% |
17% |
|
120 |
6% |
14% |
|
121 |
1.4% |
8% |
|
122 |
2% |
7% |
|
123 |
3% |
5% |
|
124 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
125 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
126 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
127 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
128 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
129 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
130 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
|
138 |
0% |
0% |
|
139 |
0% |
0% |
|
140 |
0% |
0% |
|
141 |
0% |
0% |
|
142 |
0% |
0% |
|
143 |
0% |
0% |
|
144 |
0% |
0% |
|
145 |
0% |
0% |
|
146 |
0% |
0% |
|
147 |
0% |
0% |
|
148 |
0% |
0% |
|
149 |
0% |
0% |
|
150 |
0% |
0% |
|
151 |
0% |
0% |
|
152 |
0% |
0% |
|
153 |
0% |
0% |
|
154 |
0% |
0% |
|
155 |
0% |
0% |
|
156 |
0% |
0% |
|
157 |
0% |
0% |
|
158 |
0% |
0% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–a2020–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
80 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
83 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
84 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
85 |
0.8% |
99.2% |
|
86 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
87 |
2% |
98% |
|
88 |
4% |
96% |
|
89 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
90 |
3% |
91% |
|
91 |
2% |
88% |
|
92 |
11% |
86% |
|
93 |
9% |
75% |
|
94 |
4% |
66% |
|
95 |
6% |
61% |
|
96 |
11% |
55% |
|
97 |
5% |
44% |
Median |
98 |
7% |
40% |
|
99 |
10% |
32% |
|
100 |
8% |
22% |
|
101 |
2% |
14% |
|
102 |
2% |
12% |
|
103 |
2% |
10% |
|
104 |
6% |
8% |
|
105 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
106 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
107 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
109 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
110 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
111 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
112 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
|
115 |
0% |
0% |
|
116 |
0% |
0% |
|
117 |
0% |
0% |
|
118 |
0% |
0% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
120 |
0% |
0% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
122 |
0% |
0% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
126 |
0% |
0% |
|
127 |
0% |
0% |
|
128 |
0% |
0% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
|
138 |
0% |
0% |
|
139 |
0% |
0% |
|
140 |
0% |
0% |
|
141 |
0% |
0% |
|
142 |
0% |
0% |
|
143 |
0% |
0% |
|
144 |
0% |
0% |
|
145 |
0% |
0% |
|
146 |
0% |
0% |
|
147 |
0% |
0% |
|
148 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–a2020.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
80 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
83 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
84 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
85 |
0.8% |
99.2% |
|
86 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
87 |
2% |
98% |
|
88 |
4% |
96% |
|
89 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
90 |
3% |
91% |
|
91 |
2% |
88% |
|
92 |
11% |
86% |
|
93 |
9% |
75% |
|
94 |
4% |
66% |
|
95 |
6% |
61% |
|
96 |
11% |
55% |
|
97 |
5% |
44% |
Median |
98 |
7% |
40% |
|
99 |
10% |
32% |
|
100 |
8% |
22% |
|
101 |
2% |
14% |
|
102 |
2% |
12% |
|
103 |
2% |
10% |
|
104 |
6% |
8% |
|
105 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
106 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
107 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
109 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
110 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
111 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
112 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
|
115 |
0% |
0% |
|
116 |
0% |
0% |
|
117 |
0% |
0% |
|
118 |
0% |
0% |
|
119 |
0% |
0% |
|
120 |
0% |
0% |
|
121 |
0% |
0% |
|
122 |
0% |
0% |
|
123 |
0% |
0% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
126 |
0% |
0% |
|
127 |
0% |
0% |
|
128 |
0% |
0% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
|
138 |
0% |
0% |
|
139 |
0% |
0% |
|
140 |
0% |
0% |
|
141 |
0% |
0% |
|
142 |
0% |
0% |
|
143 |
0% |
0% |
|
144 |
0% |
0% |
|
145 |
0% |
0% |
|
146 |
0% |
0% |
|
147 |
0% |
0% |
|
148 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–udmr–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
1.3% |
99.6% |
|
61 |
1.4% |
98% |
|
62 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
63 |
2% |
96% |
|
64 |
8% |
94% |
|
65 |
6% |
87% |
|
66 |
9% |
81% |
|
67 |
8% |
72% |
|
68 |
8% |
64% |
|
69 |
5% |
56% |
|
70 |
6% |
50% |
Median |
71 |
7% |
44% |
|
72 |
5% |
37% |
|
73 |
8% |
32% |
|
74 |
5% |
24% |
|
75 |
5% |
20% |
|
76 |
2% |
15% |
|
77 |
3% |
13% |
|
78 |
6% |
11% |
|
79 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
80 |
2% |
4% |
|
81 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
82 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
83 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
84 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
86 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
100 |
0% |
0% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
|
102 |
0% |
0% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
104 |
0% |
0% |
|
105 |
0% |
0% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–udmr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
1.3% |
99.6% |
|
61 |
1.4% |
98% |
|
62 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
63 |
2% |
96% |
|
64 |
8% |
94% |
|
65 |
6% |
87% |
|
66 |
9% |
81% |
|
67 |
8% |
72% |
|
68 |
8% |
64% |
|
69 |
5% |
56% |
|
70 |
6% |
50% |
Median |
71 |
7% |
44% |
|
72 |
5% |
37% |
|
73 |
8% |
32% |
|
74 |
5% |
24% |
|
75 |
5% |
20% |
|
76 |
2% |
15% |
|
77 |
3% |
13% |
|
78 |
6% |
11% |
|
79 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
80 |
2% |
4% |
|
81 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
82 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
83 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
84 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
86 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
100 |
0% |
0% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
|
102 |
0% |
0% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
104 |
0% |
0% |
|
105 |
0% |
0% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
41 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
44 |
1.2% |
98.8% |
|
45 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
46 |
2% |
97% |
|
47 |
5% |
95% |
|
48 |
14% |
90% |
|
49 |
6% |
77% |
|
50 |
7% |
71% |
|
51 |
6% |
64% |
|
52 |
8% |
58% |
|
53 |
6% |
51% |
Median |
54 |
9% |
44% |
|
55 |
5% |
35% |
|
56 |
7% |
30% |
|
57 |
6% |
23% |
|
58 |
4% |
17% |
|
59 |
7% |
13% |
|
60 |
3% |
6% |
|
61 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
62 |
2% |
3% |
|
63 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
41 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
43 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
44 |
1.2% |
98.8% |
|
45 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
46 |
2% |
97% |
|
47 |
5% |
95% |
|
48 |
14% |
90% |
|
49 |
6% |
77% |
|
50 |
7% |
71% |
|
51 |
6% |
64% |
|
52 |
8% |
58% |
|
53 |
6% |
51% |
Median |
54 |
9% |
44% |
|
55 |
5% |
35% |
|
56 |
7% |
30% |
|
57 |
6% |
23% |
|
58 |
4% |
17% |
|
59 |
7% |
13% |
|
60 |
3% |
6% |
|
61 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
62 |
2% |
3% |
|
63 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-12-22-Sociopol-coalitions-seats-pmf-a2020–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
34 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
35 |
1.2% |
99.2% |
|
36 |
5% |
98% |
|
37 |
4% |
93% |
|
38 |
4% |
90% |
|
39 |
4% |
86% |
|
40 |
5% |
81% |
|
41 |
10% |
76% |
|
42 |
10% |
66% |
|
43 |
5% |
56% |
|
44 |
10% |
51% |
Median |
45 |
13% |
41% |
|
46 |
5% |
28% |
|
47 |
7% |
23% |
|
48 |
7% |
16% |
|
49 |
6% |
9% |
|
50 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
52 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
56 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Sociopol
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 17–22 December 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.34%