Opinion Poll by INSCOP, 2–7 March 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 32.0% 30.2–33.9% 29.7–34.4% 29.3–34.9% 28.5–35.8%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 19.9% 18.4–21.5% 18.0–22.0% 17.6–22.4% 16.9–23.2%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 18.9% 17.5–20.5% 17.1–21.0% 16.7–21.4% 16.0–22.2%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.1–12.8% 8.5–13.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 122 116–129 114–131 113–133 109–136
Partidul Național Liberal 93 76 70–82 69–83 67–85 65–88
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 72 67–78 65–80 64–81 61–84
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 41 37–46 35–47 34–48 32–51

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.4% 99.5% Last Result
111 0.6% 99.1%  
112 0.9% 98%  
113 1.4% 98%  
114 2% 96%  
115 3% 94%  
116 4% 91%  
117 4% 88%  
118 5% 83%  
119 6% 78%  
120 7% 72%  
121 8% 65%  
122 8% 58% Median
123 8% 50%  
124 7% 42%  
125 7% 35%  
126 6% 28%  
127 5% 22%  
128 4% 17%  
129 3% 12%  
130 3% 9%  
131 2% 6%  
132 1.5% 4%  
133 1.0% 3%  
134 0.7% 2%  
135 0.4% 1.1%  
136 0.3% 0.7%  
137 0.2% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 0.8% 99.1%  
67 1.2% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 3% 95%  
70 4% 93%  
71 5% 89%  
72 6% 84%  
73 7% 78%  
74 8% 70%  
75 9% 62%  
76 9% 54% Median
77 8% 45%  
78 8% 36%  
79 7% 29%  
80 6% 22%  
81 4% 16%  
82 3% 11%  
83 3% 8%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.2% 3%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.6% 99.4%  
63 0.9% 98.8%  
64 1.4% 98%  
65 2% 96%  
66 3% 94%  
67 4% 91%  
68 6% 87%  
69 7% 81%  
70 8% 74%  
71 9% 66%  
72 9% 57% Median
73 9% 48%  
74 8% 39%  
75 7% 31%  
76 6% 24%  
77 5% 18%  
78 4% 13%  
79 3% 9%  
80 2% 6%  
81 1.4% 4%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.4%  
84 0.4% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.8%  
33 0.8% 99.4%  
34 1.5% 98.7%  
35 3% 97%  
36 4% 95%  
37 6% 90%  
38 8% 84%  
39 10% 77%  
40 11% 67%  
41 11% 56% Median
42 11% 45%  
43 9% 34%  
44 8% 25%  
45 6% 17%  
46 4% 11%  
47 3% 7%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.6% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.6%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 117 0% 111–124 109–125 107–127 104–130
Partidul Național Liberal 93 76 0% 70–82 69–83 67–85 65–88

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.2% 99.8%  
104 0.3% 99.6%  
105 0.4% 99.3%  
106 0.8% 98.8%  
107 1.0% 98%  
108 2% 97%  
109 2% 95%  
110 3% 93%  
111 4% 90%  
112 5% 86%  
113 6% 82%  
114 6% 76%  
115 8% 70%  
116 7% 62%  
117 8% 55% Median
118 8% 46%  
119 7% 39%  
120 7% 32%  
121 5% 25%  
122 5% 20%  
123 4% 14%  
124 3% 11%  
125 2% 7%  
126 2% 5%  
127 1.2% 3%  
128 0.7% 2%  
129 0.6% 1.4%  
130 0.3% 0.8%  
131 0.2% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 0.8% 99.1%  
67 1.2% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 3% 95%  
70 4% 93%  
71 5% 89%  
72 6% 84%  
73 7% 78%  
74 8% 70%  
75 9% 62%  
76 9% 54% Median
77 8% 45%  
78 8% 36%  
79 7% 29%  
80 6% 22%  
81 4% 16%  
82 3% 11%  
83 3% 8%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.2% 3%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations