Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 12–20 April 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 35.7% 33.6–37.7% 33.1–38.3% 32.6–38.8% 31.6–39.8%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 18.8% 17.2–20.5% 16.7–21.0% 16.4–21.4% 15.6–22.3%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 13.9% 12.5–15.5% 12.1–15.9% 11.8–16.3% 11.2–17.1%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 10.9% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.8% 9.1–13.1% 8.5–13.9%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.0% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 132 125–139 123–141 121–143 118–147
Partidul Național Liberal 93 69 64–76 62–77 60–79 58–82
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 51 46–57 45–59 44–60 41–63
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 40 36–45 34–47 33–48 31–51
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 18 15–22 14–23 13–24 12–26

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100% Last Result
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.2% 99.8%  
118 0.3% 99.6%  
119 0.4% 99.3%  
120 0.7% 98.9%  
121 0.9% 98%  
122 1.4% 97%  
123 2% 96%  
124 2% 94%  
125 3% 92%  
126 4% 88%  
127 5% 84%  
128 5% 80%  
129 6% 74%  
130 7% 68%  
131 7% 62%  
132 7% 55% Median
133 7% 48%  
134 7% 40%  
135 6% 34%  
136 5% 27%  
137 5% 22%  
138 4% 17%  
139 3% 13%  
140 3% 10%  
141 2% 7%  
142 2% 5%  
143 1.1% 3%  
144 0.8% 2%  
145 0.5% 2%  
146 0.3% 1.0%  
147 0.2% 0.6%  
148 0.1% 0.4%  
149 0.1% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.6%  
59 0.6% 99.2%  
60 1.1% 98.6%  
61 2% 97%  
62 2% 96%  
63 3% 93%  
64 4% 90%  
65 5% 86%  
66 7% 81%  
67 7% 74%  
68 9% 66%  
69 8% 58% Median
70 9% 49%  
71 8% 41%  
72 7% 33%  
73 6% 26%  
74 5% 20%  
75 4% 15%  
76 3% 11%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 0.7% 99.4%  
43 1.2% 98.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 3% 96%  
46 4% 93%  
47 6% 88%  
48 7% 83%  
49 8% 76%  
50 9% 68%  
51 9% 59% Median
52 9% 49%  
53 9% 40%  
54 8% 31%  
55 6% 24%  
56 5% 17%  
57 4% 12%  
58 3% 8%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.3% 3%  
61 0.9% 2%  
62 0.5% 1.1%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.7%  
32 0.8% 99.3%  
33 1.4% 98.5%  
34 2% 97%  
35 4% 95%  
36 6% 91%  
37 7% 85%  
38 9% 78%  
39 10% 69%  
40 10% 59% Median
41 10% 49%  
42 9% 38%  
43 8% 29%  
44 6% 21%  
45 5% 14%  
46 4% 10%  
47 2% 6%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.0% 2%  
50 0.5% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.6%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.8%  
13 2% 99.2%  
14 4% 97%  
15 8% 93%  
16 11% 86%  
17 13% 74%  
18 15% 61% Median
19 14% 46%  
20 12% 32%  
21 8% 21% Last Result
22 5% 12%  
23 3% 7%  
24 2% 4%  
25 0.9% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.7%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 128 0% 121–136 119–137 117–139 114–143
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 110 0% 103–117 101–119 99–121 96–124
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 88 0% 81–94 80–96 78–98 75–101
Partidul Național Liberal 93 69 0% 64–76 62–77 60–79 58–82

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.1% 99.7%  
114 0.2% 99.6%  
115 0.4% 99.3%  
116 0.6% 98.9%  
117 1.0% 98%  
118 1.4% 97%  
119 2% 96%  
120 2% 94%  
121 3% 92%  
122 3% 89%  
123 4% 85%  
124 5% 81%  
125 6% 76%  
126 7% 70%  
127 8% 63% Median
128 7% 55%  
129 7% 48%  
130 6% 41%  
131 6% 35%  
132 5% 29%  
133 5% 23%  
134 5% 18%  
135 4% 14%  
136 3% 10%  
137 2% 7%  
138 2% 5%  
139 1.0% 3%  
140 0.8% 2%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.4% 1.0%  
143 0.3% 0.6%  
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0.1% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.6%  
97 0.4% 99.3%  
98 0.6% 99.0%  
99 0.9% 98%  
100 1.4% 97%  
101 2% 96%  
102 2% 94%  
103 3% 92%  
104 4% 88%  
105 5% 84%  
106 6% 80%  
107 6% 74%  
108 7% 67%  
109 7% 61% Median
110 7% 53%  
111 7% 46%  
112 7% 39%  
113 6% 32%  
114 6% 26%  
115 4% 20%  
116 4% 16%  
117 3% 11%  
118 3% 9%  
119 2% 6%  
120 1.4% 4%  
121 1.0% 3%  
122 0.6% 2%  
123 0.5% 1.1%  
124 0.2% 0.7%  
125 0.2% 0.4%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.1%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 0.5% 99.3%  
77 0.8% 98.8%  
78 1.2% 98%  
79 2% 97%  
80 2% 95%  
81 3% 93%  
82 4% 90%  
83 5% 85%  
84 6% 80%  
85 7% 74%  
86 7% 67%  
87 7% 60% Median
88 8% 53%  
89 8% 45%  
90 7% 37%  
91 6% 30%  
92 6% 24%  
93 5% 18%  
94 4% 14%  
95 3% 10%  
96 2% 7%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.1% 3%  
99 0.7% 2%  
100 0.5% 1.3%  
101 0.3% 0.8%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.6%  
59 0.6% 99.2%  
60 1.1% 98.6%  
61 2% 97%  
62 2% 96%  
63 3% 93%  
64 4% 90%  
65 5% 86%  
66 7% 81%  
67 7% 74%  
68 9% 66%  
69 8% 58% Median
70 9% 49%  
71 8% 41%  
72 7% 33%  
73 6% 26%  
74 5% 20%  
75 4% 15%  
76 3% 11%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations